Why New York City Marathon Winners Keep Defying Logic

Why New York City Marathon Winners Keep Defying Logic

New York is a beast. Anyone who has ever tried to sprint for a subway train while carrying a heavy bag knows that this city doesn't give you anything for free. Now, imagine doing that for 26.2 miles, but instead of subway stairs, you're tackling the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge and the soul-crushing hills of Central Park. The New York City Marathon winners aren't just fast; they are tacticians who have figured out how to survive a course that is designed to break people.

It’s weird. In Berlin or Chicago, you see athletes chasing world records on pancake-flat roads. But NYC? It's about the fight.

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The history of this race is basically a timeline of human endurance being pushed past what seems reasonable. Since 1970, when the whole thing was just a few loops around Central Park, to the massive five-borough spectacle it is today, the list of champions has evolved from local hobbyists to global icons. But the DNA of a winner here hasn't changed. You need more than just a big engine. You need guts.

The Strategy That Actually Crowned New York City Marathon Winners

Most people think marathons are won by the person who can run the fastest for the longest. Simple, right? Not in New York. If you burn your matches too early coming off the Queensboro Bridge at Mile 16, you’re toast. Dead. Game over.

Take a look at Sheila Chepkirui in 2024. She wasn't the "fastest" on paper compared to some of the legendary names in the field, but she played a game of high-stakes chess. The women's race that year was a masterclass in patience. They hit the 20-mile mark and it looked like a jog in the park because everyone was terrified of being the first to move. When Chepkirui finally kicked, it was violent. She took down Hellen Obiri, a woman who is arguably one of the greatest distance runners to ever live.

It wasn't about the lungs. It was about the timing.

Then you have guys like Abdi Nageeye. His 2024 win was a shock to some, but if you watched his silver-medal performance in the Tokyo Olympics, you knew he had that "dog" in him. He waited. He watched. He let the hills of Fifth Avenue grind everyone else down into dust before he made his move. That’s the secret sauce.

Why the Course Record is So Hard to Break

In 2023, Tamirat Tola absolutely destroyed the course record, clocking in at 2:04:58. Before that, Geoffrey Mutai’s 2:05:06 from 2011 felt like a mark that would stand forever.

To put that in perspective, the world record is under two hours now (rest in peace, Kelvin Kiptum). So why is New York "slow"?

  • The bridges. They aren't just scenic; they are massive concrete inclines that kill your rhythm.
  • The wind. Coming over the water, it can hit you like a wall.
  • The turns. There are so many 90-degree corners that sap your momentum.

New York City Marathon winners have to be comfortable with uneven pacing. You can't just lock into a 4:45 per mile pace and cruise. You have to surge, brake, climb, and descend. It’s exhausting just thinking about it.

Legends Who Refused to Lose

You can't talk about this race without mentioning Grete Waitz. Seriously. The Norwegian schoolteacher showed up in 1978, having never run a marathon before, and broke the world record. Then she won it eight more times. Nine wins. That is a stat that feels fake, but it's 100% real. She owned the streets of New York in a way no one has since.

Bill Rodgers is another one. "Boston Billy" was the king of the 70s. He won four straight from 1976 to 1979. Back then, the shoes were basically pieces of cardboard compared to the carbon-plated "super shoes" athletes wear now. They were running on grit and probably a few beers the night before.

And then there’s Meb. Meb Keflezighi.

In 2009, Meb became the first American man to win in New York in 27 years. The energy in the city that day was vibrating. It wasn't just a sports story; it was a New York story. He wasn't the youngest or the fastest on the start list, but he knew every crack in the pavement. He used the crowd. If you’ve ever stood on First Avenue when the leaders come through, you know that the noise is a physical force. Meb tapped into that.

The Rise of the "Super Shoe" Era

In the last few years, the gear has changed the game. If you look at the feet of the New York City Marathon winners today, you’ll see massive stacks of foam and carbon fiber.

Does it make the win less impressive? Honestly, no.

Because everyone has the shoes now. It’s an even playing field again. The tech just means that instead of collapsing at the finish line, these athletes are recovering in three days instead of three weeks. It’s allowed for more aggressive racing. We’re seeing moves being made at Mile 18 that used to be reserved for the final 800 meters.

The Brutality of the Final Three Miles

Ask any pro—the race doesn't start until you enter Central Park.

You’ve got 23 miles in your legs. You’re salt-stained and delirious. And then New York gives you "Cat Hill." It’s not a mountain, but at that stage of the race, it feels like Everest.

Evans Chebet, who won in 2022, showed what it takes to survive that stretch. He had to hold off a charging Shura Kitata. The gap was closing. The crowd was screaming. Chebet’s face was a mask of pure agony. Winning New York is often less about who is the fastest and more about who can tolerate the most pain for the longest amount of time.

What Most People Get Wrong About Winning

People think it's all about the elite camp in Iten, Kenya, or the high altitudes of Ethiopia. While those places produce the greatest runners on earth, New York is a giant equalizer.

If you don't respect the downhill sections in Brooklyn, your quads will be "blown" by the time you hit the Bronx. I’ve seen world-class runners—people who have won Olympic medals—stutter-stepping by Mile 22 because they didn't respect the New York terrain.

Realities of the Professional Field

The prize money is huge—$100,000 for first place—but for these athletes, it's also about the appearance fees and the bonuses from sponsors like Adidas, Nike, or Asics.

But here is the thing: New York doesn't use pacemakers.

In London or Berlin, the organizers hire "rabbits" to run at a specific speed for 15 or 20 miles. It keeps the pace fast and steady. New York says "nope."

Without pacers, the race becomes tactical. It’s "boring" for the first hour and then it turns into a street fight. That is why New York City Marathon winners are often more respected by their peers than those who break records on "assisted" courses. You have to be your own engine. You have to decide when to push.

How to Watch the Winners Like a Pro

If you’re standing on the sidelines next November, don't just look at their watches. Look at their form.

When the winners hit the uphill on the Willis Avenue Bridge, they shorten their stride. They pump their arms harder. They don't look at the ground; they look through the person in front of them. It’s predatory.

Actionable Takeaways for Your Own Running

You might not be winning the NYC Marathon anytime soon, but you can train like the people who do.

  1. Stop obsessing over flat ground. If you want to be strong, you have to run hills. The winners of New York spend their lives on rolling terrain.
  2. Practice the "Negative Split." Almost every champion in NYC runs the second half of the race faster than the first. It takes incredible discipline to hold back when you feel good at Mile 5.
  3. Fueling is a skill. Notice how the pros grab their bottles at the stations. They have a plan. They know exactly how many grams of carbs they need per hour. If you’re winging it with whatever gels are at the expo, you’re going to hit the wall.
  4. Mental toughness over physical fitness. In the final miles, your brain will tell you to stop. The winners have a "mantra" or a specific mental cue to override that signal. Find yours.

The New York City Marathon is a beautiful, chaotic, exhausting mess. The winners represent the absolute peak of what a human being can do when they refuse to quit. Whether it’s Tola’s record-breaking speed or Waitz’s historic dominance, these athletes remind us that the city always wins—unless you’re tough enough to take it.

To really understand the grit required, look at the elevation charts of the Verrazzano vs. the Queensboro. Most runners fail on the latter because they over-indexed on the former. Balance is everything. Strength is mandatory.


Next Steps for Your Training

  • Analyze the 2024 splits: Go to the official NYC Marathon results page and look at the 5K breakdowns for the top 10 finishers. Notice the dip in pace during the bridge crossings and the surge in the final 7K.
  • Incorporate "Bridge Repeats": If you don't have a bridge, find a long, steady incline and run it at marathon goal pace, focusing on maintaining form even as your heart rate spikes.
  • Study the 2023 Tola Replay: Watch his movement through Central Park. He didn't just run; he attacked the corners. Learning how to take the "tangents" can save you hundreds of meters over the course of a full marathon.

The road to becoming a better runner starts with respecting the distance and the legends who conquered it. New York is waiting.