Politics moves fast. One minute you're watching an inauguration, and the next, everyone is whispering about the next four-year cycle. It’s early, sure. But if you think the heavy hitters aren’t already measuring the drapes for 2029, you’re kidding yourself.
The question of who will run for president 2028 isn't just a guessing game for pundits. It’s a massive logistical machine that starts moving the second the midterms end—or even before. We're talking about fundraising, secret meetings in Des Moines, and "casual" visits to the New Hampshire State House.
The Republican Bench: Is It Vance's to Lose?
Let's be real. JD Vance is the elephant in the room. As the sitting Vice President, he has the ultimate platform. He’s basically the heir apparent to the MAGA movement. History tells us that sitting VPs usually get a clear shot at the nomination, but "usually" hasn't applied to American politics in about a decade.
A 2025 YouGov poll showed that a whopping 44% of Republicans already view Vance as their ideal 2028 nominee. That’s a massive head start. But he isn't alone.
Marco Rubio, now serving as Secretary of State, has been making moves that scream "candidate." He’s got the foreign policy chops and a direct line to the base. Then you have the Florida factor. Ron DeSantis is still there. He’s term-limited as governor in early 2027, which leaves him perfectly timed for a 2028 run. People wonder if the 2024 primary bruises have healed, but in politics, memories are short when there’s an open seat.
Don’t forget the outsiders. Vivek Ramaswamy is still building his brand, and Sarah Huckabee Sanders is a powerhouse in Arkansas with deep ties to the Trump family. Speaking of the family, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. are constantly mentioned. While Junior often says he prefers being a "kingmaker," the pull of the ballot is strong.
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There is also the "third term" noise. President Trump has joked—and occasionally sounded serious—about staying past 2028. However, the 22nd Amendment is a pretty solid wall. Unless there’s a massive constitutional upheaval, the GOP will need a new face.
The Democratic Scramble: A Party in Search of a Direct Path
On the other side of the aisle, things are... complicated. After the 2024 loss, the Democratic Party is in a bit of a "circular firing squad" phase, as some analysts put it.
Gavin Newsom is the name everyone loves to debate. He’s the Governor of California, he’s got the look, and he’s been incredibly aggressive in taking on conservative policies. He told CBS News in late 2025 that he’d be "lying" if he said he wasn't considering a 2028 run. He’s already polling at the top of many Democratic wish lists, often neck-and-neck with Kamala Harris.
Speaking of Harris, she hasn't gone away. Former VPs often have a built-in donor network that’s hard to beat. But she faces a skeptical base. Some Democrats are looking for a "fresh start" rather than a 2024 redo.
Watch the governors. This is where the real energy is:
- Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania): He has high approval ratings in a must-win swing state. That’s gold.
- Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan): "Big Gretch" is term-limited and has a proven track record of winning over working-class voters in the Midwest.
- Andy Beshear (Kentucky): A Democrat who wins in a deep red state? That’s a compelling pitch for a general election.
- JB Pritzker (Illinois): He has the personal wealth to self-fund a primary, which makes him a dangerous opponent.
Then you have the "progressives vs. establishment" battle. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) is the standard-bearer for the left. While some party elites worry she’s too polarizing, her ability to mobilize young voters is unmatched. Pete Buttigieg remains a favorite for the "brainy" wing of the party, though his path to the nomination requires building a broader coalition than he had in 2020.
The Wildcards and Third Parties
Every cycle, we think a third party might actually do something. Usually, they don't. But 2028 could be weird. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is still a factor in the national conversation.
We also have a literal list of hundreds of people who have already filed paperwork with the FEC. Most are "paper candidates"—regular folks like Aaron Avouris or Alfonso Alberto Ramos. They won't win, but they show how many people are fed up with the two-party system.
What about a celebrity? We always hear rumors about Matthew McConaughey or even Jon Stewart. Stewart has consistently said he’s not interested, but in a world where a reality TV star won the presidency, nothing is truly off the table.
What Actually Determines Who Runs?
It’s not just about who wants it. It’s about the "invisible primary." This is the period we’re in right now. It's the race for money, talent, and endorsements.
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If a candidate can't raise $50 million by the end of 2027, they’re basically toast. They need to hire the best data scientists and the best ground game organizers in Iowa.
The 2026 midterms will be the ultimate litmus test. If Democratic governors like Shapiro or Moore help flip seats, their stock goes up. If the GOP maintains total control, the "MAGA" wing will be even harder to challenge in a primary.
The Swing State Map is Shifting
The 2028 race won't just be about personalities. It'll be about geography. We’re seeing traditional "Blue Wall" states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin become true toss-ups. Meanwhile, Sun Belt states like Arizona and Georgia are the new battlegrounds.
Even "safe" states are moving. Did you see how close New Jersey and Minnesota were in 2024? If those states stay in play, it changes who will run for president 2028. The parties will look for candidates who can protect their home turf while poaching the other side’s voters.
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Actionable Insights for Following the 2028 Race
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, stop watching the big cable news segments and start looking at the small stuff.
- Watch the travel schedules. If Josh Shapiro or Ron DeSantis suddenly finds a reason to visit a fair in Des Moines or a town hall in Manchester, they are running. Period.
- Follow the fundraising. Check FEC filings. Look at who is starting "Leadership PACs." These are basically shells used to pay for a candidate’s travel before they officially announce.
- Monitor the 2026 midterms. The winners of the 2026 gubernatorial and senate races are the primary pool for 2028.
- Pay attention to "policy dumps." When a potential candidate starts writing op-eds in the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal about their "vision for the future," they are testing their messaging.
The 2028 election feels far away, but for the people who actually run these things, the clock is already ticking. You can expect the first official "exploratory committees" to launch just weeks after the 2026 midterms. It’s going to be a wild ride, and the field is wider than it’s been in decades.
Keep an eye on the governors. In a time of national division, voters often look for people who have actually run a state, rather than just debated in the Senate. That could be the deciding factor in who eventually makes it to the finish line.