Politics is a lot like the weather in January—messy, unpredictable, and frankly, a bit exhausting. If you’re looking for a simple scoreboard to tell you who is winning right now in the election, you might be looking at the wrong map. We aren't in a presidential cycle anymore. 2024 is in the rearview mirror, and Donald Trump is back in the White House. But the gears of the 2026 midterms are already grinding, and the "winner" depends entirely on whether you’re looking at fundraising, early polling, or the chaotic global stage.
Honestly, the landscape is weird. We’ve got a president talking about third impeachments before the first midterm vote is even cast, while a billionaire-led party in the UK is threatening to upend decades of political tradition. It’s a lot.
The Fundraising War: Who Has the Cash?
Money doesn't always buy a win—just ask anyone who’s seen a well-funded campaign go up in flames—but it’s the best "scoreboard" we have this early. Right now, in the United States, the focus is squarely on the Senate.
Take Texas, for example. Senator John Cornyn is pulling in record-breaking numbers. According to Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, Cornyn is seeing a surge of support from "institutional interests." Basically, the big donors are terrified that if someone like Attorney General Ken Paxton grabs the Republican nomination, the seat could actually flip. So, on paper? Cornyn is "winning" the money race. But Paxton has a base that doesn't care about corporate donors.
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The Republican strategy for 2026 is already clear: nationalize everything. White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles has basically said they want to put Trump on the ballot in spirit. They’re betting that "low-propensity" voters—people who usually skip midterms—will show up if they feel the MAGA movement is under threat.
The Democrat Response
On the flip side, Democrats are leaning into localized victories to prove they still have a pulse. Look at Miami. Eileen Higgins recently beat a Trump-backed candidate, Emilio González, for mayor. It wasn't just a local win; it was a signal. Democrats are trying to prove that even in "red" Florida, the Trump endorsement isn't the golden ticket it used to be.
Global Heat: More Than Just America
While we’re obsessing over US Senate seats, the rest of the world is actually at the polls. If you want to know who is winning right now in the election on a global scale, you have to look at the "January Wave."
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- Uganda (Jan 15): Yoweri Museveni is 81 and has been in power for six terms. Is he "winning"? Well, he has the levers of power. But the streets are violent, and the opposition is louder than it’s been in decades.
- Portugal (Jan 18): They’re heading into a presidential election that could shift the balance of the EU's southern flank.
- The UK Shakeup: A massive MRP poll released this week shows Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party pulling ahead of the Conservatives. If an election were held today, Farage could actually be looking at Number 10. That is a tectonic shift that makes US politics look almost stable.
The Chaos Factor as a Strategy
It’s impossible to talk about who’s winning without talking about the "Chaos Strategy."
Donald Trump’s first few weeks of 2026 have been a whirlwind. From deposing the Venezuelan president to suggesting Greenland should be US territory (again), the administration is moving fast. Critics say it's imperialist overreach. Supporters see a leader finally "getting things done."
But there’s a cynical electoral angle here too. By keeping the news cycle in a state of permanent "breaking news," the administration keeps its base energized. If you’re constantly fighting a "war" on ten different fronts, your supporters feel like they need to keep you in power just to stay safe. It’s a high-stakes gamble for the midterms. If the economy stays stable—and wages are currently surging—this chaos might not hurt the GOP as much as the polls suggest.
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The "Invisible" Candidates
We often forget that the people winning right now aren't just the ones on the posters. They’re the ones controlling the narrative.
- The Gen Z Factor: In places like Nepal, we’re seeing "Gen Z Revolutions" where young mayors like Balendra Shah are becoming national icons.
- The Tactical Voters: In the UK, over a third of Labour voters say they’d vote for a Conservative just to keep Reform UK out. That kind of "lesser of two evils" voting is going to decide 2026.
What People Get Wrong About Midterm Polls
Early polls are kind of like weather forecasts for next month. They’re interesting, but don't bet your house on them.
A Marist poll recently showed Democrats favored for the 2026 midterms. Does that mean they’re "winning"? Not really. Midterms are notorious for being a "referendum on the incumbent." If the border remains a flashpoint or if the administration’s foreign adventures lead to a spike in gas prices, those poll numbers will evaporate by summer.
Real-World Action Steps
If you’re trying to navigate this political season without losing your mind, here’s how to actually track who is winning:
- Watch the Primaries, Not the General: In states like Texas, the real "win" happens in the primary. If the GOP nominates hardliners, the general election becomes a toss-up.
- Follow the "Institutional Money": When big donors start fleeing a candidate, it’s usually because their internal polling shows a disaster. Keep an eye on the FEC filing deadlines.
- Look Beyond the US: Global trends often hit the US six months later. If populists keep winning in Europe and Asia this winter, expect a very "loud" Republican campaign in the fall.
- Check Local Results: Special elections for mayors and state legislatures are the best "canary in the coal mine." They show who is actually turning out to vote when there isn't a presidential hype machine behind them.
The 2026 midterm cycle is just beginning to breathe. Right now, nobody has "won" yet—they're just jockeying for the best starting position. Keep your eyes on the Senate fundraising and the results coming out of the January global elections to see which way the wind is actually blowing.