Tropical storms are fickle. You spend days staring at a colorful "cone of uncertainty" on the news, wondering if you should board up the windows or just buy an extra case of water, only for the system to do something completely unexpected. That’s exactly what happened with the tropical storm jerry path back in September 2019. It was a classic "fish storm" in the making, but for a hot minute, it had the Northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda looking nervously at the horizon.
Jerry wasn’t a monster like Dorian, which had just decimated the Bahamas weeks earlier. However, its trajectory was a masterclass in how atmospheric steering currents—those invisible rivers of air in the sky—dictate exactly who gets hit and who gets a pass.
The Birth of Jerry and the Early Forecast Panic
It started as a disorganized cluster of thunderstorms moving off the coast of Africa. Typical stuff for the peak of hurricane season. By September 17, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) officially slapped a name on it: Jerry. At that point, the tropical storm jerry path looked like a straight shot toward the Caribbean.
Forecasters were worried. When a storm is south of 20 degrees latitude and moving west-northwest, it usually means the islands are in the crosshairs. By the time it reached the 20th, it had actually defied some expectations by briefly becoming a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. It was moving fast, too.
Speed is a double-edged sword. If a storm moves quickly, it doesn't have time to churn up cold water from the deep, which keeps its fuel source (warm surface water) intact. But moving fast also means it can run right into wind shear. Jerry did both.
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Why the Leeward Islands Caught a Break
Most people in Anguilla, St. Kitts, and Nevis were bracing for impact. Tropical storm watches were flying. But then, the tropical storm jerry path did something beautiful for the locals: it ticked just a little bit further north.
It passed about 60 miles north of the islands. That might sound close, but in the world of tropical cyclones, 60 miles is the difference between a catastrophic storm surge and a breezy, rainy afternoon. The strongest winds in these storms are almost always tucked into the northeastern quadrant. Since the storm stayed north, the islands stayed on the "weak side."
Wind shear—essentially different wind speeds at different altitudes—began to tear the top off the storm. By the time it was passing the islands, Jerry was struggling. It looked lopsided on satellite imagery. The convection was being pushed away from the center of circulation.
The Bermuda Close Call
After passing the Caribbean, the focus shifted entirely to Bermuda. If you look at a map of the tropical storm jerry path, it makes a sharp right-hand turn. This is what meteorologists call "re-curving."
A weakness in the subtropical ridge—a massive high-pressure system that usually acts like a wall—allowed Jerry to turn toward the north and northeast. For several days, the forecast models were split. Some showed a direct hit on Bermuda. Others showed a narrow miss.
By September 24, Jerry had weakened back down to a tropical storm. It was gasping for air. The cold water left behind by previous storms (upwelling) and the persistent wind shear were killing it. It eventually passed about 70 miles south of Bermuda as a post-tropical cyclone.
Understanding the Steering Currents Behind the Path
Why didn't it just keep going west toward Florida?
You have to think of the atmosphere like a giant pinball machine. The "balls" are the storms, and the "flippers" are high and low-pressure systems. In late September 2019, a trough of low pressure moving off the United States East Coast acted like a magnet. It pulled the tropical storm jerry path away from the mainland.
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Honestly, we got lucky. If that trough had been timed differently, or if the Bermuda-Azores High had been stronger and pushed further west, Jerry could have been a very different story for the Bahamas or the Carolinas.
The Intensity Gap
One of the most interesting things about the tropical storm jerry path was how the intensity didn't match the track. Usually, as a storm moves over the warm waters of the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR), it gets stronger.
Jerry peaked early. It hit that 105 mph mark and then just fell apart. This happens when dry air gets sucked into the core. Think of it like trying to start a campfire with wet logs. You can have all the heat in the world, but if the air is too dry or too "smothering" with shear, the fire won't take.
Historical Context: Was Jerry Normal?
If you look at the long-term data from NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division, Jerry’s track is actually pretty common for September. This is the time of year when the "re-curvature" happens most often.
- 2019 Season Context: This was the same year as Barry, Dorian, and Imelda.
- The "J" Storm Factor: Historically, the "J" named storm doesn't always form. Reaching the tenth named storm by mid-September shows how active that year was.
- Bermuda’s Luck: Bermuda is a tiny target in a very big ocean. It’s statistically rare for a storm to hit it dead-on, but the tropical storm jerry path came closer than most residents would like.
Lessons Learned from the 2019 Track
So, what does this tell us for future hurricane seasons?
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First, never trust a weakening storm. Even as Jerry was "dying," it was dumping rain and creating dangerous rip currents along the U.S. East Coast. You don't need a direct hit to feel the effects. The swells generated by Jerry traveled hundreds of miles, making the surf dangerous from Florida up to New England.
Second, the "cone of uncertainty" is often misunderstood. People look at the center line and think, "That's where it's going." In reality, the storm can be anywhere within that cone. With the tropical storm jerry path, the cone correctly predicted the turn, but the intensity forecasts were all over the place.
Actionable Insights for Tracking Future Storms
If you are looking at a storm path today and it looks similar to Jerry's, here is how you should actually read the data.
Look at the Upper-Level Winds. If you see a lot of "zonal flow" (west-to-east winds) in the mid-latitudes, the storm is likely to turn away from the U.S.
Watch the Forward Speed. A storm moving at 20+ mph is hard to predict because small changes in direction result in huge misses or hits down the line. Jerry was a fast-mover.
Don't Fixate on the Category. A Category 1 or a Tropical Storm can still cause massive flooding. Jerry wasn't a wind threat by the time it reached Bermuda, but it still brought heavy tropical rains.
Check the "Invest" Phase. Long before Jerry was a storm, it was Invest 97L. Following a storm from its "invest" stage gives you about a 3-to-5-day head start on the general public.
Focus on the Water. Warm water is fuel. Jerry crossed a "cold wake" left by a previous storm, which is one reason it didn't regain its Hurricane status after the initial peak. If you see a storm following the exact path of a previous one, it will likely struggle to intensify.
The tropical storm jerry path serves as a reminder that the ocean is a complex system. A few degrees of temperature difference or a slight shift in high pressure hundreds of miles away can change everything. Stay prepared, stay informed, and always look beyond the center line of the forecast.