When Donald Trump took the stage during his campaign, he didn’t just talk about a wall anymore. He started talking about the "largest mass deportation operation in history." Now that we're well into 2026, those speeches have turned into actual policy, and the numbers are, frankly, a lot to wrap your head around. Depending on who you ask—the White House or independent watchdogs—the answer to how many illegals does Trump want to deport ranges from "everyone who shouldn't be here" to a very specific, logistical target of one million people a year.
Honestly, the "how many" part is kinda moving target. During the 2024 trail, Trump often cited figures between 15 million and 20 million, though census data usually pegged the undocumented population closer to 11 million. But in the reality of 2026, the administration has focused on a more "practical" (if you can call it that) goal of hitting 1,000,000 removals annually.
The Big Goal: One Million a Year
If you look at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget justifications for fiscal year 2026, they aren’t shy about it. They’ve requested billions of dollars specifically to support a strategy of one million removals per year.
To put that in perspective, under previous administrations, including Trump’s first term, deportations usually hovered around 300,000 to 400,000 a year. Tripling that isn't just a policy tweak; it’s a total overhaul of how the U.S. government functions. Tom Homan, the "Border Czar," has been the face of this, basically saying that while they started with "public safety threats"—meaning people with criminal records—the "aperture" is now wide open.
Basically, if you’re in the country without papers, the administration's stance is that you're "on the table."
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2025: A Year of "Self-Deportation"
One of the most surprising things about the last year hasn't just been the forced removals, but how many people left on their own. By December 2025, the DHS claimed that over 2.5 million illegal aliens had left the U.S.
Wait, how?
It’s a mix of two things:
- Formal Deportations: Roughly 622,000 people were physically removed by ICE and Border Patrol agents.
- Self-Deportations: An estimated 1.9 million people left voluntarily.
The administration basically used a "scare them out" strategy. By making the environment so restrictive—cutting off all taxpayer-funded benefits, increasing workplace raids, and even using "Kavanaugh stops" (where agents stop people based on appearance)—a huge number of people decided it was better to leave than wait for a knock on the door. There was even a "CBP Home" app that offered free flights and a $1,000 incentive for people to leave before Christmas 2025.
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Where Do They All Go?
You can't just put a million people on Greyhound buses. The logistics of how many illegals does Trump want to deport is tied directly to how many beds they have.
By the start of 2026, the detention system has reached its highest level in history. We’re talking about nearly 70,000 people held on any given day. To make this work, the government hasn't just used old jails. They’ve built "tent facilities" on military bases that can hold 5,000 people at a pop and even looked into re-opening parts of Guantanamo Bay for processing, though that’s been a legal nightmare for them.
The Economic Ripple Effect
It’s not just a social issue; it’s a massive business one. The Economic Policy Institute and other groups have been sounding the alarm because, well, the math is scary for certain industries. If the administration actually hits that 4 million mark over four years, we’re looking at:
- Construction: A potential loss of over 2 million workers (both immigrant and U.S.-born due to project cancellations).
- Child Care: Roughly half a million jobs could vanish.
- Agriculture: This is the big one that keeps grocery prices weirdly volatile right now.
The White House argues the opposite, though. They released a report earlier this year claiming that these deportations are exactly why housing prices in certain metro areas started to dip in late 2025. Their logic? Fewer people means less demand for low-income housing, which drops the price for everyone else.
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What Actually Happens Next?
If you or someone you know is trying to navigate this, the "wait and see" approach is pretty much over. The administration is moving into what they call "Phase 2," which involves more "at-large" arrests in communities rather than just at the border.
Actionable Insights for the Current Climate:
- Know Your Documents: The administration has increased "skip tracing"—using private contractors to verify home and work addresses. If you have any legal pending status (like a pending U-Visa or asylum claim), keep the physical receipts on you.
- Workplace Audits: Expect a massive spike in I-9 audits. Businesses are being told to expect "no-notice" inspections. If you own a business, getting your paperwork digitized and compliant isn't optional anymore.
- Legal Resources: While the administration has tried to limit due process through the Alien Enemies Act, the courts are still a factor. Many removals are still being fought in the 9th Circuit and other districts.
The number isn't just a statistic on a screen; it's a fundamental shift in the American landscape. Whether the goal of 11 million or 1 million per year is "met" depends largely on the ongoing funding from Congress and the sheer physical capacity of the planes and buses moving people out. But for now, the target remains clear: as many as the system can possibly handle.