The sun goes down on Election Day, and everyone starts refreshing their browser tabs. We’ve all been there. You want an answer. You want to know who’s moving into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue before you go to sleep. But honestly, the question of when will we know who won president is way more complicated than just waiting for the 11:00 PM news.
Sometimes, we find out before the bars close. Other times, it takes days of staring at cable news maps that look like a game of Risk.
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In 2016, for instance, Donald Trump was declared the winner at 2:29 a.m. on the Wednesday after the election. Fast forward to 2020, and Joe Biden wasn't called as the winner until the following Saturday morning. That’s a massive gap! And in 2024? The Associated Press called the race for Trump early Wednesday morning, around 5:30 a.m. ET, after he secured Wisconsin.
So, why the wild inconsistency? It basically comes down to a messy mix of state laws, how people choose to vote, and how thin the margins are in a handful of counties you’ve probably never visited.
Why the Wait Happens (and Why it’s Normal)
If you're looking for a single person who presses a "finish" button, they don't exist. The United States doesn't have a national election agency. Instead, we have 50 different states (plus D.C.) running 51 different versions of an election.
The "Blue Wall" and Processing Rules
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—often called the "Blue Wall"—have historically been the culprits for late-night or multi-day anxiety. Why? Because of how they handle mail-in ballots. In some states, election workers can start opening envelopes and verifying signatures weeks before Election Day. This is called "pre-processing."
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But in 2020 and parts of 2024, some of these key swing states weren't allowed to even touch those envelopes until the morning of the election. Imagine having a million envelopes to open, verify, and scan, and you can't start until 7:00 a.m. on the busiest day of the year. It’s a logistical nightmare. That’s why you’ll see one candidate leading by a mile at 10:00 p.m. (the "Red Mirage") only to see those numbers shift as the mail-in ballots get tallied (the "Blue Shift").
The Margin of Error and Automatic Recounts
When people ask "when will we know who won president," they often forget about the "too close to call" rule. If a race is separated by less than 0.5%, most news organizations—like the Associated Press or the networks—won't call it. They can't.
Take a look at how different states handle tight margins:
- Florida: Triggers an automatic machine recount if the margin is 0.5% or less.
- Pennsylvania: Also has a 0.5% trigger for a statewide automatic recount.
- Arizona: In 2022, they actually tightened their laws, so now a recount is triggered if the margin is 0.5% or less (it used to be much smaller).
If a recount happens, you can basically toss your "election night" expectations out the window. A recount can take a week or more to complete properly. It involves re-scanning every single paper ballot or, in some cases, hand-counting them.
The Role of "Decision Desks"
You’ve probably seen the "Decision Desk" graphics on TV. These aren't government officials. These are teams of data scientists and political junkies. They look at "raw vote" (what’s actually been counted) versus "expected vote" (how many people they think actually turned up).
They also look at "ballots outstanding." If a candidate is up by 20,000 votes, but there are 50,000 mail-in ballots left to count in a heavy-leaning district for the opponent, the "desk" will sit on their hands. They won't call it until the trailing candidate has no mathematical path to victory.
Important Dates That Actually Matter
While we all focus on Election Night, the legal "knowing" happens much later.
- The "Safe Harbor" Deadline: This is usually in mid-December. It’s the date by which states must finish their contests and certify their electors.
- The Electoral College Meeting: Electors meet in their states to cast their official votes. This happened on December 17 in 2024.
- The Congressional Count: On January 6, Congress meets to count those votes. This is the official, final moment.
Is the System Broken?
Not necessarily. It’s just decentralized. In some ways, having a slow count is a sign that the security checks are working. Verifying a signature on a mail-in ballot takes longer than a machine reading a bubble-sheet at a precinct.
If you want to know the winner early, look at the "early returns" from states like Florida or Ohio. They process mail-in ballots early, so their results drop fast. If a candidate is winning big there, it’s an early signal. But if those states are tight? Settle in. Grab some coffee. It’s going to be a long week.
What You Can Do Now
Instead of just waiting for the "big call," you can actually track the progress more accurately by following local county clerks in swing states like Maricopa (Arizona), Fulton (Georgia), or Milwaukee (Wisconsin). They often post updates on exactly how many ballots are left in the "pile" long before the national news catches up.
Understanding the "why" behind the delay won't make the wait any less stressful, but it'll definitely make you the smartest person at the watch party. Basically, don't trust a "call" until the math is undeniable.
To get the most accurate picture on election night, monitor the "percent of expected vote" rather than the total vote count, and pay close attention to which specific counties are still reporting, as urban centers often report much later than rural areas.