Los Angeles is a city that loves a comeback story, but right now, it’s looking more like a survival thriller. Just a year ago, Mayor Karen Bass seemed like a lock for reelection. She had the momentum, the "Inside Safe" initiative was moving people off the streets, and the political establishment was lined up behind her like a Hollywood red carpet.
Then came the fires. Specifically, the January 2025 Palisades Fire.
That disaster didn't just burn homes; it scorched the narrative of a "drama-free" administration. Now, as we barrel toward the June 2, 2026 primary, the Los Angeles mayors race has transformed from a coronation into a street fight. You’ve got a billionaire businessman sniffing around for a rematch, a former school superintendent who actually knows where the bodies are buried, and—believe it or not—a reality TV star running on a platform of "disinfecting" City Hall.
It's messy. Honestly, it's very L.A.
The Incumbent’s Dilemma: Can Karen Bass Hold On?
Karen Bass is a veteran. She doesn't rattle easily. But being 10 points "under water" in the polls is a dangerous place for any incumbent to live. Recent polling puts her approval rating in the low 40s, while her disapproval has crept into the high 40s.
She hasn't lost the city yet. No one has hit that 50% "alienation" mark, but the vulnerability is real.
The primary critique? Leadership under pressure. While Bass points to a drop in crime and strides in affordable housing, the 2025 wildfires exposed deep cracks in the city’s emergency response. People are still talking about the dry fire hydrants and the $1-billion budget gap that has her hunting for painful cuts.
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Bass officially launched her reelection campaign in December 2025 at L.A. Trade Technical College. She’s leaning hard into her record of moving thousands into shelter, but the "tough year" she acknowledged at her rally is still fresh in voters' minds.
The Challengers: Who Is Actually Running?
The field is crowded. As of early 2026, about 20 people have signaled they want the job. But let’s be real—only a few actually have the juice to make this a race.
Austin Beutner: The "Fixer"
Austin Beutner is probably the biggest threat to Bass right now. He’s the former LAUSD Superintendent and was once a Deputy Mayor. He’s basically running as the adult in the room who knows how to manage a crisis.
He’s been incredibly vocal about the city’s homelessness "fact-finding" (or lack thereof), criticizing Bass for blocking independent audits of her signature programs. Beutner’s pitch is simple: "L.A. is adrift." He’s got the business background to talk about the budget and the government experience to claim he can actually pull the levers.
Rick Caruso: The Looming Shadow
The big question mark remains Rick Caruso. He hasn't officially jumped in for the rematch yet, but he’s been acting like a candidate for months.
He was the loudest critic during the Palisades Fire, though it’s a double-edged sword for him. While he slammed the city's response, he faced his own PR nightmare when reports surfaced that his private fire crews protected his own properties while neighbors’ homes burned. Still, he has the one thing no one else has: $100 million of his own money to spend on TV ads.
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Spencer Pratt: The Wildcard
Yes, that Spencer Pratt. The guy from The Hills.
He announced his bid on the anniversary of the Palisades Fire, standing in the Palisades Village. It sounds like a joke until you realize he’s tapping into a very real anger among residents who feel abandoned by the system. He’s calling it a "mission" to expose City Hall. In a city where celebrity is currency, you can’t totally ignore a guy who can get a camera crew to follow him to a neighborhood council meeting.
The Issues That Will Decide the Primary
Forget the national talking points for a second. The Los Angeles mayors race is going to be won or lost on three things that Angelenos feel every time they walk out their front door.
- The $1 Billion Hole: The city is broke. Or close to it. Bass is looking for cuts, and that means services might start slipping. If the trash doesn't get picked up or the parks get grittier, the "incumbent" label becomes a weight.
- The "Inside Safe" Audit: Is it actually working? Bass says yes. Beutner says we don't know because the data is "fuzzy." Voters are tired of seeing tents, and they want to know if their tax dollars are buying actual apartments or just temporary Band-Aids.
- Fire Preparedness: After the 2025 disasters, nobody cares about your five-year plan for 2030. They want to know why the water didn't come out of the hydrants in the Palisades and what happens when the next Santa Ana winds kick up.
The Logistics: Dates You Actually Need to Know
If you're planning on voting (and you should), the calendar is already moving.
- February 2 – February 7, 2026: This was the window for candidates to file their "Declaration of Intention." This is where the "maybe" candidates have to put up or shut up.
- March 4, 2026: The final deadline to file nominating petitions. After this, the ballot is set in stone.
- June 2, 2026: Primary Day. If anyone gets more than 50%, it’s over. If not, the top two move to November.
- November 3, 2026: The General Election runoff.
Why This Race Feels Different
Usually, L.A. politics is pretty predictable. But the 2026 cycle is being nationalized in a weird way. Donald Trump has been calling Los Angeles a "trash heap" and specifically attacking Karen Bass.
Normally, a President attacking a Mayor is bad for the Mayor. In L.A.? It’s a gift. About 74% of the city voted against Trump-aligned interests in recent cycles. Every time Stephen Miller or Trump disparages Bass, they effectively hand her a campaign donation in the form of local sympathy.
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But sympathy doesn't fix a billion-dollar deficit.
Moving Forward: What to Watch
If you want to stay ahead of the curve on the Los Angeles mayors race, stop looking at the big rallies and start looking at the City Ethics Commission reports. Follow the money. Bass has the institutional donors, but Beutner and potentially Caruso have the ability to self-fund or tap into deep business networks.
Also, keep an eye on Rae Huang. She’s a Democratic Socialist and housing activist who is pulling the conversation to the left. If she grabs enough of the progressive vote, she could force Bass into a runoff she really doesn't want.
Basically, the "safe" era of the Bass administration is over. Whether she can build a new one before June is the only question that matters.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check your registration: Ensure your address is current with the L.A. County Registrar-Recorder by the May 18, 2026 deadline for the primary.
- Monitor the Budget: Watch the City Council hearings in April. How Bass handles the proposed cuts will be the final "test" before the June vote.
- Look for the "Candidate Connection" surveys: Sites like Ballotpedia will start hosting direct responses from the 20+ candidates; read those instead of the 30-second TV spots.