Nigeria is a lot. Honestly, if you’re trying to keep up with the news coming out of Abuja or Lagos lately, it feels like trying to drink from a firehose. One minute we’re talking about record-breaking inflation, and the next, there’s a massive tech deal in the desert.
So, what really happened in Nigeria recently?
Basically, the country is caught in this wild tug-of-law between a painful economic "reset" and a desperate scramble for global relevance. Just this week, President Bola Tinubu landed back in Nigeria after a high-stakes trip to Abu Dhabi for the 2026 Sustainability Week. He didn't come back empty-handed. He signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the UAE.
It’s a big deal.
The goal is to pull in $30 billion annually for "green" energy. But while the private jets are landing with billionaires, the guy on the street in Mushin or Kano is still wondering why a loaf of bread costs three times what it did two years ago.
The Economic "Consolidation" Gamble
The government is calling 2026 the year of "Consolidation." You’ve probably heard that word a thousand times in corporate meetings, but in Nigeria, it has a very specific, somewhat scary meaning. It means the "Stabilization Phase" of 2024 and 2025 is over.
Now, they’re doubling down.
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The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) is projecting a 5.5% growth rate this year. That sounds great on a spreadsheet. However, the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, is being a bit more cautious, aiming for about 4.68%. Why the gap? Because of the "Elephant in the room."
Inflation is still the monster under the bed.
Even though experts say it might moderate to around 16% later this year, it’s currently sitting much higher. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently rebased how they calculate these numbers—adding 400 new products to the "basket" they track. Some people think it's a clever way to make the numbers look better than they actually feel in your pocket.
Why the Naira is doing gymnastics
The exchange rate is hovering around ₦1,400 to the dollar. For a country that imports everything from toothpicks to refined petrol, that's a gut punch. The government is trying to break what they call the "rentier cycle." Essentially, Nigeria has lived off oil money for decades. But with crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism still rampant, that tap is running dry.
Tinubu’s "Tax Gamble" is the new play. They’re moving to boost non-oil revenue, which basically means they're looking for more ways to tax the informal economy. It's a risky move. If you tax people who are already struggling to eat, things get tense. Fast.
The Security Crisis Nobody is Solving
You can’t talk about what happened in Nigeria without talking about the North. It’s heavy. A new report from Open Doors just dropped, and the stats are devastating. Last year, Nigeria accounted for about 72% of Christians killed for their faith globally.
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That’s 3,490 people.
But it’s not just a religious war; it’s a chaotic mess of land disputes, banditry, and kidnapping. In the Middle Belt, Fulani militants and farming communities are locked in a cycle of revenge that the military seems unable to stop. Just earlier this January, a village raid in the north saw over 30 people killed in a single market attack.
The Trump Factor
Interestingly, the U.S. has started sticking its nose in more aggressively. President Donald Trump has been vocal about the "genocide" of Christians in Nigeria. He even authorized strikes on ISIS-linked militants in the northwest recently.
The Nigerian government is walking a tightrope here. They need the military help, but they’re terrified of being officially designated a "Country of Particular Concern." If that happens, the U.S. could slap them with an arms embargo. Talk about being between a rock and a hard place.
Is there actually good news?
Kinda. If you look at the health sector, there's a weirdly bright spot.
While the headlines are full of "Japa" (doctors fleeing the country), the Coordinating Minister of Health, Muhammad Ali Pate, released some surprising data.
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- Skilled birth attendance is now over 90% in many areas.
- Maternal deaths dropped by 17% in high-burden zones.
- Primary health care visits jumped from 10 million to 45 million in a year.
It turns out that when you actually put money into community clinics instead of just big city hospitals, people show up. The government also just signed a new deal with ASUU (the university union) to give professors a ₦140k monthly top-up. Maybe, just maybe, the strikes will stop for a while.
The Davos Push
Right now, Nigeria is trying to "rebrand." For the first time ever, there’s a "Nigeria House" at the World Economic Forum in Davos. They’re pitching solid minerals, digital trade, and the "creative economy."
Think Burna Boy, Wizkid, and Rema.
The government realized that Afrobeats is one of the few things Nigeria exports that everyone actually loves. They’re trying to turn that cultural "vibe" into hard currency. Rema just swept the AFRIMA awards, and the President was quick to jump on the shout-out. It’s smart politics, but fans are increasingly asking: "Can we have electricity to listen to the music, though?"
What you should actually do about it
If you’re looking at Nigeria from an investment or travel perspective, here’s the reality:
- Watch the February "Investopia" in Lagos. This is going to be the litmus test for whether that UAE deal is real or just photo-op diplomacy.
- Hedge against the Naira. If you're doing business, don't keep your assets in local currency longer than you have to. The "consolidation" phase is going to be bumpy.
- Focus on the "Middle Belt" niche. Agriculture is where the growth is supposed to come from, but only if the security situation stabilizes. Keep an eye on the "Miyami model" for health and social interventions.
- Check the 2027 Rumors. It sounds early, but the political machines are already starting to hum. Opponents of Tinubu are already forming alliances to "take back Nigeria."
Nigeria isn't a country you can understand through a single headline. It’s a place where a school building collapses in Lagos one day, and a 20-year-old tech founder raises $50 million the next. It’s heartbreaking, exhausting, and somehow still the most exciting place on the continent.
Stay updated on the official "Budget of Consolidation" progress. The government’s ability to hit that 16% inflation target by December will tell you everything you need to know about whether this "Renewed Hope" thing is working or if we're just spinning our wheels.
Next Steps for You:
- Monitor the Naira exchange rate daily via the official NAFEM window to spot volatility trends.
- Follow the Ministry of Health’s quarterly reports if you are in the NGO or pharmaceutical space, as the "Sector-Wide Approach" (SWAp) is opening new procurement channels.
- Review the 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook from the NESG for a deeper dive into which specific manufacturing sectors are getting tax holidays this year.