Winter in Western New York usually feels like a marathon, not a sprint. But right now? It feels more like a roller coaster that just hit the top of the first big drop. If you looked outside this morning, you probably saw a typical, gray Buffalo Wednesday. Mild, even.
But things are changing fast.
The 10 day forecast for buffalo new york is currently dominated by a massive shift from mild, rainy weather into a deep, sustained freeze that’s going to test every snowblower in Erie County. We've spent the first half of January 2026 surprisingly warm—about 14 degrees warmer than last year, honestly—but that "January Thaw" is officially over.
The Immediate Breakdown: Rain to Snow Transition
Today, January 14, is basically the "pivot point" for the entire region. We started with temperatures hitting near 40°F, which felt great for a mid-winter walk, but the National Weather Service in Buffalo has already pulled the trigger on a Winter Weather Advisory.
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Here is what the next few days look like:
- Wednesday Night: The rain turns into a wintry mix before fully switching to snow. Expect the temperature to crater from 40°F down to about 18°F by sunrise.
- Thursday, Jan 15: This is where it gets messy. We’re looking at a high of only 18°F. The wind is going to be howling out of the West-Southwest at 15-20 mph, making it feel like it's well below zero. A "Code Blue" has already been issued for the city, so please check on your neighbors.
- Friday, Jan 16: A slight recovery to 30°F, but don't get comfortable. It's just a brief breather before the next wave of Arctic air arrives.
The real story isn't just one storm. It’s the arrival of the Polar Vortex. Forecasters like those at WGRZ and the NWS are watching a pattern where the jet stream is finally "phasing," allowing that brutal Canadian air to dump straight into the Great Lakes.
Looking into Next Week: The Deep Freeze
By Sunday, January 18, and moving into Martin Luther King Jr. Day, the 10 day forecast for buffalo new york takes a dive into the "dangerous cold" category. We aren't just talking about a few flurries. We are talking about highs that struggle to reach 20°F and lows that dip into the single digits.
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Temperature Outlook (Jan 18 - Jan 23)
- Sunday: High 22°F / Low 12°F (Snow showers likely)
- Monday (MLK Day): High 22°F / Low 14°F (Gray, cold, and biting)
- Tuesday: High 21°F / Low 10°F
- Wednesday: The coldest day of the stretch. High 17°F / Low 13°F.
If you’ve lived here long enough, you know that 17 degrees isn't just "chilly." It’s the kind of cold that makes your car struggle to turn over and makes your nostrils stick together when you breathe.
What About Lake Effect?
Lake Erie is still relatively warm for this time of year, hovering near record temperatures for mid-January. This is a double-edged sword. Warm lake water plus a blast of Arctic air is the exact recipe for the lake-effect machine to start cranking. While the current forecast shows a lot of "synoptic" snow (widespread stuff), the "Southtowns" like Orchard Park and East Aurora need to keep an eye on those WSW winds. Any shift in wind direction could turn a 3-inch dusting into a 10-inch headache overnight.
Why This Pattern Is Different
Usually, we get these cold snaps and then it's back to 40 degrees. Not this time. The ensemble models (the complex math the pros use) suggest this Arctic blocking is going to stick around. We’ve been in a weak La Niña pattern, which typically means more "ups and downs" than a straight deep-freeze. However, the current breakdown of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is creating a "wall" that’s keeping the cold air trapped over the Northeast.
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Basically, if you were planning on a weekend getaway to the Adirondacks or just a trip to Wegmans, prepare for "Winter Mode."
Expert Tips for the Next 10 Days
You've probably done this a thousand times, but a refresher doesn't hurt when the temps drop 20 degrees in six hours.
- Check your tires now. Air pressure drops significantly when the temperature plummets. If your "low pressure" light isn't on yet, it probably will be by Thursday morning.
- Buffer your commute. Wednesday evening and Thursday morning are going to be "greasy" on the roads. The transition from rain to ice to snow is the most dangerous time for black ice on the I-190 and I-90.
- Draft proofing. If you have those plastic window kits, now is the time to shrink-wrap them. When it hits 17°F next Wednesday, you'll feel every gap in the molding.
Looking further out toward the end of the 10-day window, around Friday, Jan 23, there is a glimmer of "mild" air returning with a projected high of 37°F. But until then, Buffalo is firmly back in the freezer.
Next Steps for Your Household:
Verify that your snow removal equipment has fresh gas and that your emergency car kit—blankets, salt, and a shovel—is actually in the trunk and not sitting in the garage. Keep an eye on local radar updates as the lake-effect bands develop tomorrow afternoon, as these can change your local accumulation totals faster than any 10-day forecast can predict.