Honestly, if you’re looking at the weather in phoenix 10 days out, you’re probably expecting the usual postcard of endless sunshine and dry heat. Most people do. But this January is throwing a bit of a curveball that’s catching locals off guard.
The Valley is currently trapped in a weird tug-of-war. On one side, we’ve got this persistent high-pressure system that has kept us hovering in the mid-70s—basically "chamber of commerce" weather. On the other, a shift is coming. If you've lived here long enough, you know that "dry heat" is a bit of a meme, but for the next week, the humidity is actually going to climb.
We aren't talking Florida levels of swampy, but it's enough to make those 40-degree nights feel a lot sharper.
The 10-Day Breakdown: Sun, Clouds, and a Sudden Soak
Right now, Phoenix is sitting at a comfortable 67°F as of Sunday night, January 18. But don't let the clear skies tonight fool you. The upcoming week is a staircase.
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Monday and Tuesday (Jan 19-20) are going to be your peak "get outside" days. We're looking at highs of 74°F and 72°F. It’s perfect. It’s the kind of weather that makes people from the Midwest want to move here immediately. The wind is barely a factor, just a light 4 to 5 mph breeze coming from the east.
Then, things get moody.
By Wednesday, the clouds start rolling in. We stay in the low 70s, but the "mostly cloudy" tag is real. It’s the precursor to a significant shift on Friday, January 23. Mark your calendar for that one. We have a 75% chance of rain during the day and another 75% at night.
Why the Rain Matters This Time
Phoenix usually averages about 0.4 inches of rain for the whole month of January. This upcoming storm system, fueled by a 7 mph south wind, could dump a decent chunk of that in a single 24-hour window.
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- Friday, Jan 23: High of 66°F. Significant rain likely.
- Saturday, Jan 24: High of 65°F. Lingering light rain and much higher humidity (around 67%).
- Sunday, Jan 25: High of 64°F. The clouds start to break, but it’ll be the coolest day of the stretch.
The "Winter" That Isn't
There's a lot of talk about how Phoenix is losing its winter. Chris Dunn and other local meteorologists have been pointing out a "double whammy" lately. Basically, the Urban Heat Island effect—all that concrete and asphalt—is holding onto heat so well that we almost never see a true freeze anymore at Sky Harbor.
In fact, over the last decade, the city core has only hit the freezing mark twice.
For the next 10 days, our lows are staying safely in the 45°F to 53°F range. You won't need to wrap your citrus trees or worry about the pipes. But you will notice that 64°F on Sunday feels a lot colder than it sounds when you’ve been spoiled by 79°F days earlier in the month.
Practical Advice for the Next Week
If you're planning a hike at Camelback or Piestewa Peak, do it before Thursday. Once the rain hits on Friday, those trails become a muddy mess and, frankly, a bit dangerous with the slick rock.
Also, check your wipers.
Phoenix drivers are notoriously... let's say inexperienced... with rain. With a 75% chance of precipitation on Friday, the afternoon commute is going to be a nightmare. The humidity is going to jump from a bone-dry 20% on Sunday to a damp 67% by Saturday. Your skin will thank you, but your hair might not.
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Actionable Steps for the Valley:
- Schedule outdoor events for Monday or Tuesday while the high is 74°F.
- Prep for a wet Friday. If you have outdoor furniture or cushions, move them under cover by Thursday night.
- Layer up for the weekend. A 64°F high with 67% humidity feels damp and chilly compared to a dry 74°F.
- Watch the UV index. Even with the clouds, we're seeing levels around 2 or 3. It's low, but the desert sun still bites if you're out for hours.
The weather in phoenix 10 days from now looks like a return to form—partly sunny and back up to 69°F by Tuesday, Jan 27. We just have to get through the Friday soak first.