Snow in Maryland is always a messy gamble. You’ve probably noticed the chatter online or heard a neighbor mention the "polar vortex" coming back to haunt us. Honestly, calling it a gamble is an understatement when you're looking at the weather forecast for Maryland this weekend. It’s basically a tug-of-war between a lingering January thaw and a surge of Arctic air that’s finally pushing its way down the I-95 corridor.
Don't expect a repeat of those weirdly mild days we just had. That’s over.
The cold reality of Saturday’s transition
Saturday, January 17, is going to be the "moody" day of the weekend. If you’re planning on hitting the road early, it might look okay at first, but things get tricky fast. We're looking at a high around 45°F, which sounds decent until the moisture hits.
The National Weather Service out of the Baltimore/Washington office is tracking a system that brings a mix of rain and snow throughout the day. Basically, it’s that annoying slushy mess that doesn’t quite know what it wants to be.
- Chance of precipitation: About 40% during the day.
- The "Switch": As the sun goes down and we hit a low of 33°F, that rain is going to try its hardest to turn into flakes.
- Wind factor: Southwest winds at 11 mph will make it feel significantly rawer than the thermometer says.
If you’re in Western Maryland—think Garrett County or the higher elevations of Allegany—you’re looking at a much higher chance of actual accumulation. For the rest of us in places like Towson, Bowie, or Frederick, it’s mostly going to be a "wet windshield" kind of Saturday.
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Sunday: When the real winter shows up
Sunday is when you’ll actually want to dig out the heavy parka. The temperature is going to plummet. We’re talking about a high of only 32°F. That is a massive 13-degree drop from Saturday's high.
It gets colder.
By Sunday night, the low hits 22°F. If there’s any standing water from Saturday’s rain-snow mix, it’s going to freeze solid. Black ice is going to be the genuine "hidden" threat for Monday morning commuters. We’re also expecting scattered snow showers throughout the day on Sunday. It won't be a blizzard, but with a 25% chance of flakes falling into the afternoon, it’ll definitely feel like peak winter.
Why this weekend is actually a "Polar Plunge"
You might have seen the headlines about the polar vortex. It’s not just hype this time. Meteorologists like Doug Kammerer and the team over at the Weather Prediction Center have been watching these "lobes" of Arctic air. After a warmer start to January, the atmospheric gates have opened.
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This weekend is technically the second wave of a three-part cold surge. The first hit on Thursday, this one lands Saturday night, and there's a third, potentially nastier one coming next week.
What about the "Big One"?
Everyone asks if this is the start of a massive 20-inch snow event. Short answer: No. Not this weekend.
While the weather forecast for Maryland this weekend confirms snow showers, the moisture isn't deep enough for a classic Nor'easter. We have the cold air arriving on Sunday, but the "juice" (the moisture) is mostly moving out by the time the temperatures are low enough for heavy accumulation.
Expert Paul Dorian, who has a knack for calling these snowy winters, has noted that while La Niña usually means less snow for DC and Maryland, the specific setup this year is "non-traditional." We’re seeing more Arctic intrusions than a typical La Niña year would suggest.
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Regional breakdown: Who gets the most?
Maryland weather is never uniform. A few miles makes a huge difference here.
- Deep Creek & The Mountains: You're looking at 1-3 inches of fresh powder. Great for the ski resorts, but be careful on Route 40.
- The I-95 Corridor (Baltimore/DC): Mostly a dusting to half an inch on grassy surfaces. It’ll look pretty for twenty minutes and then turn into a cold puddle.
- Southern Maryland & Eastern Shore: Mostly rain on Saturday. Sunday will just be windy and brutally cold, with maybe a few "ocean effect" flurries if the wind direction shifts just right.
Tips for surviving the shift
Since we’re transitioning from "mild and rainy" to "freezing and windy" in less than 24 hours, your house and car are going to feel it.
First, check your tire pressure. These 20-degree temperature swings usually trigger that annoying "low pressure" light on your dashboard. It’s not a leak; it’s just physics. Second, if you haven’t disconnected your garden hoses yet, do it Friday. That Sunday night low of 22°F is more than enough to burst a pipe if a hose is still attached.
Also, keep an eye on the wind. Sunday’s northwest winds will be cutting. If you have outdoor pets, they need to come in or have seriously insulated shelter by Saturday night. The wind chill on Sunday night is likely to dip into the low teens.
Next Steps for Your Weekend:
- Friday Evening: Fill up the gas tank and grab any salt or de-icer you might need. Stores get chaotic the second a flake shows up on the radar.
- Saturday Afternoon: Plan your outdoor errands for before 4:00 PM. That’s when the temperature begins its slide and the visibility might drop with the rain/snow mix.
- Sunday Morning: If you’re heading to church or the grocery store, allow an extra 10 minutes to defrost the car.
- Monday Prep: Layers are your friend. The "feels like" temperature for the Monday morning commute is going to be brutal, likely hovering around 15°F.