If you’ve been scrolling through your feed lately, you’ve probably seen some wild headlines about Caracas. Honestly, things changed so fast that even the experts are scrambling to keep up.
Basically, the Venezuela most of us knew—the one stuck in a decade-long stalemate between Nicolás Maduro and the opposition—is gone. It vanished in the early hours of January 3, 2026.
The Night Everything Flipped
So, here is the deal. The U.S. launched "Operation Absolute Resolve," a series of targeted military strikes that felt like they came out of nowhere, but had actually been building up for months. Delta Force units and CIA-backed teams moved into Caracas. By dawn, the U.S. had captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.
They weren't just detained; they were whisked out of the country.
Right now, Maduro is in New York. He’s facing charges in the Southern District of New York for narco-terrorism and cocaine importation. It’s some real-life Narcos stuff. U.S. Attorney General Pamela Bondi has been pretty vocal about the indictments, which include conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices.
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You might think the country just collapsed into a vacuum, but it’s more complicated than that.
Who Is Actually Running the Show?
People keep asking: "If Maduro is in a cell in Manhattan, who’s in the palace?"
It isn't a simple answer. President Donald Trump famously said the U.S. is "going to run the country" until a transition happens. But on the ground in Caracas? It’s messy.
Delcy Rodríguez, the former Vice President, was sworn in as acting president by the Supreme Court just two days after the raid. They used a "temporary absence" loophole in the constitution to keep her in power. Her brother, Jorge Rodríguez, runs the National Assembly. So, while the "head" of the regime is gone, the "body"—the military, the police, and the inner circle—is still mostly there.
It’s a bizarre standoff.
- The U.S. has a massive military footprint in the Caribbean.
- The USS Gerald R. Ford is sitting right off the coast.
- The "men with the guns," like Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López, haven't defected yet.
Honestly, the U.S. seems to be betting that if they cut off the top, the rest will eventually fold. But for now, the old guard is digging in their heels.
The Oil Bonanza Myth
Everyone assumes this is all about the oil.
Venezuela has the largest proven reserves on the planet. We're talking 17% of the world's total. But here is what most people get wrong: you can't just flip a switch and start pumping.
The infrastructure is trashed. Decades of zero maintenance and corruption have left the refineries and pipelines in shambles. Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) say even in a "best-case" scenario, it would take until 2028 just to get back to 1.5 million barrels per day. To hit the glory days of 3 million barrels? You're looking at 2035 and billions—literally billions—of dollars in investment.
Plus, the world is currently swimming in oil. There’s a supply glut. Prices are hanging around $57 a barrel. Major players like Baker Hughes have been cutting rigs elsewhere because they don't need the extra supply.
Trump has mentioned using oil proceeds to help the Venezuelan people, but don't expect a windfall anytime soon. It's a long, expensive game.
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What It’s Like on the Ground Right Now
If you live in Caracas or Maracaibo, your life hasn't suddenly become a movie. It’s actually become a lot more uncertain.
Inflation is still a nightmare—somewhere around 682% according to the latest IMF estimates. Imagine going to buy a loaf of bread and the price changes while you're standing in line. That is the daily reality for Neila Roa, a mother in the Catia neighborhood of Caracas who recently told reporters she has to check currency fluctuations hourly just to sell packs of cigarettes.
The numbers are staggering:
- 78.6% of the population lives in poverty.
- 7.9 million people have already fled the country since 2014.
- 2,000 people are still leaving every single day.
When the strikes hit on January 3, about 25 people were killed and nearly 100 injured. Power outages hit the capital, and a critical medical warehouse in La Guaira was damaged. That’s a huge deal because it put thousands of kidney patients at risk who depend on dialysis.
What Most People Get Wrong About the "Invasion"
There’s a common misconception that this was a full-scale D-Day style invasion. It wasn't. It was a "decapitation" strike.
The U.S. focused on airfields, the La Carlota military base, and Fort Tiuna. They wanted to grab Maduro and break the military's communication without getting bogged down in street-to-street fighting.
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The international reaction has been a total mixed bag.
- The Supporters: The UK, Israel, and most NATO members say Maduro was an illegitimate dictator anyway (especially after the disputed 2024 election) and his removal is a win for democracy.
- The Critics: China, Russia, and many Latin American neighbors like Brazil and Colombia are furious. They’re calling it a violation of sovereignty and international law.
There's a real fear that this sets a precedent where any country can just snatch another leader they don't like.
What Happens Next?
This isn't going to be a quick fix. We are in the middle of a high-stakes transition that could go sideways in a dozen different ways.
The U.S. is currently meeting with oil executives to discuss rebuilding the energy grid. They’re also "selectively rolling back" some sanctions to get the economy moving. But as long as Delcy Rodríguez and the military elite are still in the Miraflores Palace, the U.S. is basically propping up a regime while trying to replace it.
If you’re looking for what to watch, keep an eye on two things: the 90-day "temporary absence" clock for Rodríguez and the upcoming trial of Maduro in New York. If the military doesn't fracture soon, the U.S. might find itself "running" a country that doesn't want to be run.
Actionable Insights for Following the Situation:
- Monitor the "Men with Guns": The real power in Venezuela isn't the president; it's the military. Watch for any high-level defections from Vladimir Padrino López or Diosdado Cabello. If they stay loyal to Rodríguez, the U.S. intervention will stall.
- Watch the Oil Quotas: Keep an eye on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) fact sheets. If they start issuing more general licenses for companies like Chevron or Halliburton to expand operations, it’s a sign they believe the security situation is stable enough for long-term investment.
- Track the Migration Flows: If the 2,000-per-day exit rate doesn't drop by mid-year, it means the "Renaissance" promised by Washington isn't reaching the average person. The humanitarian crisis is the true barometer of success here.
- Legal Precedents: Follow the UN Security Council meetings. The outcome of the legal challenges against the U.S. intervention will likely dictate how other regional powers (like Brazil) cooperate with the new administration in Caracas.
The situation is fluid, volatile, and honestly, a bit scary for those living through it. Venezuela is no longer just a "crisis"—it's an active geopolitical experiment.