You probably think the Oscars are about "artistic merit" or some lofty cinematic ideal, but let’s be real for a second. If you look at the Vegas Academy Awards odds right now, it’s basically a high-stakes math problem. We are deep into the 2026 awards season, and the dust from the Golden Globes hasn't even settled yet. If you’re looking at the board today, Thursday, Jan 15, you’ll see that the oddsmakers aren't just guessing anymore—they’re practically shouting.
The big story? Paul Thomas Anderson. Specifically, his film One Battle After Another. It’s a juggernaut. Honestly, it’s rare to see a film dominate the betting markets this early, but after it swept the Globes for Best Film (Musical/Comedy), Director, and Screenplay, the odds absolutely cratered.
We went from a somewhat competitive field to a "catch me if you can" scenario.
The Best Picture Lock?
Right now, if you want to bet on One Battle After Another to win Best Picture, you aren't going to make much money. It’s sitting at roughly -250 to -300 at most major books like DraftKings, and some UK-based sites like William Hill have it even shorter at 1/7. That translates to an implied probability of about 88%.
Basically, the house thinks it's a done deal.
But is it? History tells us there's always a "spoiler" lurking in the shadows. Remember when La La Land was a lock until it wasn't? The current "Value Play" is Hamnet. Chloé Zhao’s adaptation is sitting around +550 to +600 (or 6/1). It won Best Film (Drama) at the Globes, which usually carries a lot of weight. If you think the Academy is going to pivot toward a more traditional, emotional period piece over PTA’s "political resistance masterpiece," that’s where you put your ten bucks.
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The long shots? Sinners is hanging out at +1200, and Marty Supreme is around +1400. They’re cool movies, but the market is telling us they’re just happy to be invited to the party.
Chalamet vs. The Field
Timothée Chalamet is having a year. Like, a really good year. After winning for A Complete Unknown last year, he’s back at the top of the Vegas Academy Awards odds for Marty Supreme.
He’s currently the heavy favorite at -200 (or 1/4).
It’s kind of wild to think about a back-to-back win—something that hasn't happened since Tom Hanks in the 90s—but the momentum is real. His main competition is Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another, who is sitting at +550.
- Timothée Chalamet: -200 (The "It" Boy)
- Leonardo DiCaprio: +550 (The Veteran)
- Wagner Moura: +700 (The International Dark Horse for The Secret Agent)
- Ethan Hawke: +1600 (The Critical Darling for Blue Moon)
If you’re looking for a "sleeper," Wagner Moura is the one everyone is whispering about. The Secret Agent has been picking up steam with critics, and at +700, there’s actually some meat on those bones if Chalamet fatigue starts to set in among voters.
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The "Sure Thing" in Best Actress
If you think the Best Picture race is lopsided, look at Best Actress. Jessie Buckley is currently the most "locked-in" person on the entire board. Her performance in Hamnet has moved her odds to a staggering -340 (and as short as 1/12 in some markets).
Honestly, it’s almost not worth betting on unless you’re just looking to park money.
Rose Byrne is the only one even remotely in the rearview mirror at +600 for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. It’s a great title, and she’s a veteran who’s overdue, but she’s climbing a very steep hill. The rest of the pack—Renate Reinsve and Emma Stone—are out past +1000, which tells you everything you need to know about Buckley’s current stranglehold on the category.
Supporting Categories: Where the Chaos Lives
This is where Vegas usually gets it wrong, or at least where the "sharps" find their wins. In the Supporting Actor race, Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) is the current favorite at -150, but Stellan Skarsgård is right there at +200 for Sentimental Value.
And then there's the Supporting Actress race. This one is messy.
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Teyana Taylor is the frontrunner right now for One Battle After Another at +120. But Ariana Grande is looming for Wicked: For Good. Depending on which book you look at, Grande is anywhere from +125 to +1000. The discrepancy is huge. Some bookies think the Wicked sequel will finally get the Academy love the first one missed, while others think it’s just a "pop star" nomination.
Why the Odds Move (and When to Jump)
If you’re following the Vegas Academy Awards odds, timing is everything. Nominations are coming out on Thursday, Jan 22.
The moment those names are read, the markets will shift again. Usually, a "surprise" nomination for a film that wasn't on the radar will cause its odds to jump from +5000 to +2000 instantly. If you have a hunch about a film like Sentimental Value or After the Hunt sneaking into the Best Picture ten, you bet it now, not next Friday.
Also, keep an eye on the Guilds. The SAG, DGA, and PGA awards are the real "tells." Vegas knows this. When the producers (PGA) pick a winner, the Best Picture odds usually move to -500 or worse.
Actionable Insights for 2026 Oscar Betting:
- Avoid the Best Actress favorite: Jessie Buckley is too "expensive" right now. There’s no value in a -340 bet unless you're betting thousands.
- Look at Supporting Actor for value: Stellan Skarsgård at +200 is a much more interesting play than Sean Penn at -150, especially if Sentimental Value performs well in the technical categories.
- Watch the "No Nomination" markets: Sometimes the best bet isn't who will win, but who will get snubbed. Books often offer odds on "Will [Actor] be nominated?"
- The "PTA Sweep" is the safe bet: If you want to build a parlay, One Battle After Another for Best Picture and Best Director is the foundation.
The 98th Academy Awards go down on March 15, 2026, at the Dolby Theatre. Between now and then, these numbers will bounce around like crazy. Keep your eyes on the "Pre-Nomination" boards for the next 48 hours—that's where the real money is made before the general public starts betting on January 22.