If you’ve ever looked at a chart of the United States Oil Fund (USO) and compared it to the price of a barrel of crude, you’ve probably noticed something weird. They don't always move together. Actually, sometimes they go in completely opposite directions, which is a massive headache for anyone just trying to "bet on oil." Honestly, if you're looking at the us oil fund stock price today—which is sitting around $73.56 as of mid-January 2026—you’re not looking at the price of oil. You're looking at a complex derivative soup.
It’s been a wild start to 2026. Just a week ago, we were seeing prices dip toward $67, and now we're back up over $73. That’s a 6% jump in a heartbeat. But before you throw your life savings into it because you think gas prices are going up, we need to talk about what’s actually happening under the hood.
The "Contango" Trap and Your Money
Most people think buying USO is like buying a digital barrel of oil. It’s not.
Basically, USO is a commodity pool. It doesn't own big metal tanks in Oklahoma filled with the black stuff. Instead, it buys futures contracts. These are "I owe you" notes for oil to be delivered in the future. The problem? Those notes expire every month. To keep the fund going, the managers have to sell the "old" notes and buy "new" ones.
This is where the math gets messy. If the price of oil for next month is higher than the price for this month, the fund loses money every time it "rolls" those contracts. This is called contango. It’s like a slow leak in your gas tank. You might be right that oil prices are going up, but the "roll yield" eats your profits faster than the price rises.
Why 2026 is looking weird for USO
Right now, the market is in a bit of a tug-of-war. Goldman Sachs analysts recently noted that we’re looking at a potential surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day this year. That’s a lot of extra oil sitting around. Normally, that would crush the us oil fund stock price, but geopolitical drama in the Middle East and South America is keeping a floor under it.
You've got a supply glut on one side and "what if a war starts" on the other. It’s a trader’s playground and a long-term investor’s nightmare.
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Reading the 2026 Chart: Support and Resistance
If you're looking at the technicals, USO has been hugging its 50-day moving average near $69.66. When it broke above $71 last week, the "Strong Buy" signals started flashing on everyone's Bloomberg terminals. But don't get too excited.
The 52-week high is still way up at $84.58. To get back there, we’d need to see China’s industrial output—which has been sluggish—really ramp up. Or, we’d need OPEC+ to get aggressive with more production cuts.
- Current Price: ~$73.56
- Daily Range: $72.78 - $73.94
- 52-Week Range: $60.67 - $84.58
- Market Cap: ~$980 Million
The volume has been decent lately, around 2.8 million shares a day. That means there’s enough liquidity if you need to get out fast. And trust me, with oil, you often need to get out fast.
Is it a "Real" Investment or a Trade?
Kinda both, but mostly a trade.
If you hold USO for five years, you’re almost guaranteed to lose money compared to just holding an energy stock like ExxonMobil (XOM) or Chevron (CVX). In fact, over the last five years, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has outperformed USO by a staggering 40+ percentage points.
Why? Because Exxon pays dividends and owns real stuff. USO just owns contracts that expire.
"USO is designed for short-term investors who can continuously monitor their positions," says almost every SEC filing the fund has ever released. They aren't kidding. If you leave this in your 401(k) and forget about it, you might wake up in three years wondering where half your money went, even if oil prices stayed flat.
The 2026 Outlook
Forecasts for WTI crude (the benchmark USO tracks) are all over the place. Some experts at the IEA expect prices to average around $51 per barrel later this year due to that massive supply surplus we mentioned. If that happens, the us oil fund stock price is going to have a very rough summer.
On the flip side, the "crypto boom" and massive AI data centers are sucking up more power than anyone predicted. If that electricity demand translates into more oil-fired power (which it sometimes does in emerging markets), we could see a surprise rally.
What You Should Actually Do
Stop treating USO like a stock. Treat it like a tool.
If you think there's going to be a massive geopolitical event tomorrow, USO is a great way to catch that spike. It moves fast. It's liquid. You can buy it in a standard brokerage account without needing a complex futures margin setup.
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But if you’re "bullish on energy" for the next decade? Buy the companies that pump the oil, not the fund that bets on the monthly price.
Next Steps for You:
- Check the "Curve": Look up if the oil market is in "Contango" or "Backwardation." If it's in contango, your USO shares will lose value every month just from the "roll."
- Watch the $75 Level: That’s the next major psychological resistance. If USO can't break and hold $75 this week, it'll likely slide back to the high $60s.
- Compare to XLE: Before buying, look at the XLE/USO ratio. If energy stocks are rising while oil is flat, the "smart money" is betting on companies, not the commodity.
The us oil fund stock price is a reflection of many things—politics, weather, and math—but it's rarely a reflection of "fair value." Be careful out there.