Right now, if you step outside in Albany, Syracuse, or Buffalo, you’re hitting a wall of that specific, damp New York cold that bites through a denim jacket. Honestly, upstate New York weather today is basically a massive exercise in patience. We aren’t seeing the "Snowpocalypse" just yet, but the air feels heavy, like the atmosphere is holding its breath before the real hammer drops.
Most people think Upstate is just one giant block of ice from November to March. It's not. Today, Friday, January 16, 2026, we’re actually stuck in a weird transition zone. While current conditions across the region show temperatures hovering around 27°F, it’s the "feels like" temp of 18°F that’s the real story. That 9 mph wind coming out of the west isn't a gale, but it’s enough to make your eyes water while you’re scraping a thin layer of frost off the windshield.
The Breakdown: Clouds Now, Snow Later
If you’re looking at the sky and seeing nothing but a flat, gray ceiling, you’re looking at the "Mostly Cloudy" condition that's dominating the forecast. But don't let the lack of falling flakes fool you. The National Weather Service and local outfits like Storm Team 2 are already pointing toward a shift.
Tonight is when things get interesting.
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The daytime precipitation chance is a measly 10%, but as we move into the late-night hours, that jumps to 45%. We’re talking about snow showers moving in with a low of 17°F. If you’ve lived here long enough, you know that 17°F is that "sweet spot" where the salt on the roads starts to lose its magic.
Why Today Matters for the Weekend
What really happened with the forecast is a classic North American setup. We have a major winter storm moving across the Plains right now, and it's eyeing the Northeast for a Saturday arrival. Upstate New York is the buffer zone.
- Buffalo: You’re sitting at 27°F with 61% humidity. It’s cloudy, but the "Weather Impact Alert" for next week is already casting a shadow.
- Syracuse: It's a bit colder at 24°F. The Fayetteville-Manlius School District is already prepping for remote days because they've burned through three emergency closure days.
- Albany: The Capital Region is blustery. West winds are hitting 14 mph, occasionally gusting to 21 mph. It’s that raw, Hudson Valley wind.
It’s easy to look at a 28°F high and think, "That’s not bad." But when you factor in the northwest winds at 14 mph and the rising humidity (hitting 53% today), it’s a bone-chilling dampness.
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The Aurora Wildcard
Here’s the thing nobody is talking about because they’re too focused on shoveling: the Northern Lights. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center has a G1 minor storm watch for tonight.
Since the Kp-index is hitting a 5, there’s a legit chance to see the aurora across New York if—and it’s a big "if"—the clouds break. With the current "mostly cloudy" status, you’ll need to be lucky. But if you see a green glow behind the clouds in the Adirondacks tonight, you aren't imagining it.
Survival Steps for the Next 24 Hours
Look, you don't need a 2,000-word essay to tell you to wear a hat. But there are a few nuance things to handle before the snow showers turn into a Saturday accumulation of 3 to 6 inches in some spots.
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Check your tire pressure now. These 10-degree swings between day and night (28°F down to 17°F) will trigger that annoying dashboard light. Also, if you’re in the Syracuse area, double-check your kid’s remote learning login. The district is literally one storm away from pivoting to asynchronous work.
Basically, enjoy the "quiet" clouds while they last. By tomorrow morning, the narrative changes from "mostly cloudy" to "where did I put the heavy shovel?"
Actionable Next Steps:
- Seal the gaps: Check the weather stripping on your north-facing doors before the northwest winds pick up tonight.
- Top off the tank: Keep your gas tank at least half full to prevent fuel line freeze-up as temperatures dip to 17°F tonight.
- Monitor the "View Line": Keep an eye on the NOAA aurora forecast around 10 PM; if the clouds break, the G1 storm could be visible.
- Prep for Saturday: Anticipate 3-6 inches of accumulation north of I-90 and plan travel for before 8 AM or after 4 PM Saturday.