You’re staring at your booking calendar and it’s a sea of white space. Every empty night is money evaporating from your pocket. It’s a gut-wrenching feeling for any Airbnb or VRBO host, especially when the mortgage is due and the cleaning fees are stacking up. People often talk about "occupancy rates" like they're the only metric that matters, but that's a trap. If you're 100% booked but your margins are razor-thin because you've priced your place like a hostel, you aren't winning. You're just busy. This is exactly where the 23/30 rule comes into play. It’s a specific, data-driven benchmark used by professional revenue managers to signal when a property is perfectly optimized for the market.
Basically, if you have 23 nights booked out of a 30-day month, you’ve hit the sweet spot.
Why 23/30 Is the Magic Number for Profit
Most amateur hosts aim for 30/30. They want that calendar fully blacked out. It feels good, right? Seeing every square filled gives you a dopamine hit. But honestly, if you are booked 30 out of 30 nights, your prices are too low. You left money on the table. You could have charged more per night, had fewer guests, less wear and tear, and probably walked away with the same—or more—net profit.
The 23/30 metric represents a roughly 75% to 77% occupancy rate. In the world of hospitality analytics, specifically within the short-term rental (STR) sector, this is considered the "efficiency frontier." It’s the point where your Average Daily Rate (ADR) and your Occupancy Rate intersect to produce the highest possible Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR).
Think about it this way. If you’re at 23 nights, you have a 7-day buffer. Those seven days are your insurance policy against burnout. They give your cleaning crew time to do a deep clean rather than a frantic "turn." They allow for maintenance. More importantly, they prove that you are pushing your pricing high enough that you aren't the "budget option" for every single traveler.
The Revenue Management Math Behind the Rule
Let's look at the numbers because math doesn't lie, even if it’s sometimes annoying.
Imagine you have a beach condo. You price it at $200 a night and you book all 30 nights. Total revenue: $6,000. Sounds great. But you had 10 different turnovers, 10 sets of guests using the AC at 60 degrees, and 10 chances for someone to stain the rug.
Now, imagine you use the 23/30 strategy. You raise your price to $275 a night. You lose some of the "price-sensitive" shoppers, and you end up with 23 nights booked. Total revenue: $6,325.
You made $325 more by working less. You had fewer guests. You had fewer turnovers. Your utility bills are lower. Your furniture lasts longer. This is why professional management companies like Vacasa or individual "Superhosts" obsessed with data don't sweat a few empty days. They know that a gap in the calendar isn't a failure; it’s a sign that the price is working.
What Happens if You Are Above 23/30?
If you find yourself consistently at 28, 29, or 30 nights booked, it’s time for a reality check. You're underpriced. You’ve become the "deal" that everyone is snapping up. While that’s fine if you’re just starting out and need reviews, it’s a terrible long-term business strategy.
Professional tools like AirDNA or PriceLabs actually suggest that when your booking lead time is too far out and your occupancy is too high, you should raise your rates by 5% to 10% immediately. You want to see some resistance. You want to see those empty days because they represent the "premium" you are charging for the days that are booked.
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What if You Are Below 23/30?
Falling below 20 nights is where the red flags start waving. This usually suggests one of three things:
- Your photos look like they were taken with a potato.
- Your "cleaning fee" is so high it feels like a personal insult to the guest.
- Your base price is genuinely decoupled from the local market reality.
If you're at 15/30, you're in trouble. At that point, you aren't hitting the 23/30 sweet spot; you're just overpriced or underserving.
Context Matters: The Seasonal Shift
Don't go applying this rule blindly. Context is everything. If you own a ski chalet in Aspen, your 23/30 target is strictly for January and February. If you’re hitting 23/30 in July in a ski town, you’re actually a genius.
Conversely, for "drive-to" markets—places people go for a quick weekend getaway—the rule shifts. You might find that your 23/30 is heavily weighted toward Thursdays through Sundays. You might have 100% occupancy on weekends and 0% on Tuesdays. In that scenario, your goal isn't just to hit 23 nights; it's to find a way to "mid-week fill" to bridge that gap.
The Psychological Burden of the Empty Calendar
Honestly, the hardest part of the 23/30 rule isn't the math. It's the psychology.
We are programmed to see "empty" as "bad." We see an empty store and assume it’s going out of business. But in the STR world, an empty night is an opportunity. It's an opportunity to capture a last-minute, high-dollar booking from someone whose plans fell through and is willing to pay a premium.
If your calendar is already full at $150/night, you can't accept the person willing to pay $400/night for a last-minute emergency stay. By keeping that 20-25% vacancy, you leave the door open for "yield maximization."
Actionable Steps to Hit Your 23/30 Benchmark
If you’re currently off-track, you need to pivot. Stop guessing.
First, look at your "booking window." Are people booking you six months in advance? If so, you are way too cheap. Realistically, for a standard STR, you want your 23/30 to fill up about 30 to 60 days out. If you're fully booked for August in March, raise your prices for September immediately.
Second, check your competition—but do it right. Don't just look at what they are asking for. Look at what is actually booked. Use a tool to see the "Adjusted Occupancy" in your neighborhood. If the average in your area is 60%, and you are hitting 75% (the 23/30 mark), you are outperforming the market.
Third, experiment with "Gap Fill" discounts. If you have a two-day hole between two big bookings, drop the price for those specific nights. This helps you get from 21/30 to 23/30 without devaluing your entire month.
Key Metrics to Monitor alongside 23/30:
- RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room): Take your total monthly revenue and divide it by 30. This is the real number that tells you if you're successful.
- Lead Time: The number of days between the booking date and the check-in date.
- Length of Stay (LOS): Longer stays are generally more profitable because they reduce cleaning costs, even if you offer a small discount.
The 23/30 rule is a philosophy of value over volume. It’s about respecting your property, your time, and your bottom line. Stop chasing the 100% occupancy ghost. It’s a myth that leads to a broken water heater and a low bank balance.
Start by looking at your next 30 days. If you're at 28 nights, raise your weekend rates for next month by $25. Watch what happens. You might just find that making more money while doing less work is the best business move you've ever made.
Audit your last three months of data. Total your nights stayed. If you’re consistently above 25, your "tax" for being popular is too low. Adjust your dynamic pricing software—or your manual settings—to aim for that 75% mark. It feels counterintuitive to want fewer bookings, but your bank account will eventually show you why the pros live by this ratio. Focus on the net, not the noise.