You've probably seen the headlines. TSM is basically on a tear. As of right now, the tsmc stock price today per share is hovering around $342.44 on the NYSE. Honestly, if you bought this a year ago, you're likely feeling like a genius. But if you're looking at it today, January 18, 2026, you're probably wondering if you missed the boat or if this is just the beginning of some wild AI-fueled moonshot.
It’s been a crazy week. Just a few days ago, on January 15, the stock jumped over 4% in a single session because their Q4 2025 earnings didn't just beat expectations—they sort of crushed them. We’re talking about $33.7 billion in revenue for the quarter. To put that in perspective, that’s a 25% growth rate year-over-year. Most companies would kill for that kind of scale.
The 2nm Monopoly Nobody Can Touch
Basically, TSMC is the only game in town for the stuff that actually matters. They just confirmed that their 2nm (N2) node is fully booked through 2026. Think about that. Every single high-end chip that’s going to power the next iPhone, the next Nvidia H300 (or whatever they call it by then), and the next AMD monster is already accounted for.
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Nvidia is reportedly squeezing Apple for capacity. For years, Apple was the "big brother" that got first dibs on everything. Not anymore. Jensen Huang is apparently writing checks so fast that Nvidia might actually be TSMC's largest customer now. This shift is huge. It means the tsmc stock price today per share isn't just tied to how many iPhones people buy; it's tied to the entire global build-out of artificial intelligence.
Why the Price Target Keeps Moving
Analysts are scrambling. TD Cowen just hiked their target to $370. Goldman Sachs is even more bullish, throwing around a conviction buy with a target that implies way more upside. Some of the more aggressive folks at BofA Securities are even eyeing $470.
Why the disconnect? It comes down to wafer pricing.
TSMC is raising prices because they can. When you're the only one who can make a 2nm chip with Gate-All-Around (GAA) architecture that actually works, you have "pricing power." They’re looking at price hikes of 3% to 10% on advanced nodes. That flows straight to the bottom line.
- Gross Margins: They hit 62.3% in Q4. That's insane for a hardware company with massive factories.
- CapEx: They’re planning to spend between $52 billion and $56 billion in 2026 alone. That’s more than the entire market cap of many S&P 500 companies.
- Dividend: If you're into passive income, the next payout is roughly $0.97 per share, with an ex-dividend date coming up on March 17, 2026.
The "Geopolitical Discount" is Real
Kinda have to talk about the elephant in the room: Taiwan. Every time a politician mentions "strategic autonomy" or there’s a blip in the news about the Taiwan Strait, the stock twitchiness starts. It's why TSM often trades at a lower P/E ratio than a software company like Microsoft, even though TSMC is just as essential.
Some investors call it a "geopolitical discount." Basically, you're getting a literal monopoly at a cheaper entry price because people are scared. But look at what they’re doing to fix it. They are building "megafabs" in Arizona, Japan, and Germany. They are diversifying so that if something does happen in Taiwan, the world (and your portfolio) doesn't just stop.
Is the AI Bubble About to Burst?
Honestly, that’s the $1.4 trillion question. If AI demand cools off, TSMC has a long way to fall. But the data doesn't show a slowdown. The company just raised its 5-year AI revenue growth forecast to the "mid-to-high 50s" percentage. That is a massive acceleration from their previous estimates.
You've got to realize that 77% of their revenue now comes from 7nm chips or smaller. They aren't making the cheap stuff for your toaster anymore. They are making the brains for the most complex machines ever built.
What You Should Actually Do
If you’re watching the tsmc stock price today per share, don't just stare at the daily candle. It's noisy.
- Check the Yield: At a roughly 1% yield, it’s not a "dividend play," but the growth of that dividend—up over 20% in the last few years—is a strong sign of health.
- Watch the 2nm Ramp: The real money starts hitting the books in late 2026 when mass production of N2 begins. Any news about "yield issues" will tank the stock, while "on track" news will keep it climbing.
- Mind the P/E: It’s currently trading around 32x earnings. Historically high for them, but maybe cheap compared to Nvidia’s nosebleed valuations.
Stop thinking of TSMC as a "chipmaker." Think of them as the toll booth for the entire digital economy. If you want to use the internet, run an AI model, or drive a smart car, you’re basically paying a tax to TSMC. That’s a powerful position to be in, even with the geographical risks.
Keep an eye on the March 17 ex-dividend date if you're looking to capture that next payment. More importantly, watch the April 15 earnings call. That’s when we’ll see if the 2026 guidance holds up or if they’re going to surprise us to the upside again.
Moving forward, you should calculate your own risk tolerance regarding the Taiwan concentration. Many institutional investors are balancing TSM with positions in ASML or US-based fabs to hedge, but few find a direct replacement for the sheer technical lead TSMC holds right now.