Wait, can he actually do that? That’s the question everyone is screaming into the void right now.
Ever since Donald Trump reclaimed the White House in 2024, the chatter about a 2028 run hasn't just stayed in the dark corners of the internet. It’s right there on the gift shop shelves. Literally. Only a few months into his second term, "TRUMP 2028" hats started appearing in the White House gift shop. It’s a bold move. Some call it a joke; others call it a trial balloon.
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But honestly, the reality is a lot messier than a hat. Trump considering third term possibilities isn't just a rumor—it's something the President has addressed directly, and not always with a wink. In a March 2025 interview with NBC News, he was asked point-blank about it. His response? "A lot of people want me to do it." He followed that up by saying he wasn't joking.
He's even mentioned that "there are methods" to make it happen.
Naturally, this sent legal scholars into a tailspin. We’re talking about the 22nd Amendment here. It’s the rule that says you get two terms, and then you’re out. Period. Or is it?
The 22nd Amendment: An Airtight Seal or a Screen Door?
Let's look at the actual text. Most people haven't read it since high school civics, if they ever did.
The 22nd Amendment states: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice." It’s pretty straightforward on the surface. If you’ve won two elections, you can’t be elected a third time. This was a direct reaction to Franklin D. Roosevelt, who broke the "two-term tradition" by winning four. Republicans at the time were horrified at the idea of a "President for Life," so they moved to codify the limit in 1947.
But here is where it gets weird.
Some folks, including some of Trump's legal circle like Alan Dershowitz, have toyed with what they call "the loophole." The theory goes like this: The amendment says you can't be elected more than twice. It doesn't explicitly say you can't hold the office.
Imagine a scenario where Trump runs as Vice President. If the President-elect then resigns, Trump would ascend to the presidency without technically being "elected" to that top spot a third time.
Legal experts basically hate this idea. David A. Super, a professor at Georgetown Law, called the argument "implausible." He argues it defeats the whole point of the law. Most scholars agree that the 12th Amendment, which says no one "constitutionally ineligible" to be President can be Vice President, would shut that door pretty quickly.
Still, Trump dismissed the VP route as "too cute" during his 2025 Asia tour. He seems more interested in the idea of the people just wanting him there.
The Political Push for 2028
It's not just Trump talking.
- Steve Bannon: Trump’s former strategist has been loud about this. In October 2025, he told The Economist that "Trump is gonna be president in '28." He seems convinced there’s a plan.
- Rep. Andy Ogles: In early 2025, the Tennessee Representative actually proposed a resolution to amend the 22nd Amendment. His specific angle? Allowing three terms if they are non-consecutive.
- The "Third Term Project": Groups at CPAC 2025 were openly promoting the idea.
It feels like a lot of noise, but it has real-world consequences. Democrats, led by Rep. Dan Goldman, have already started drafting resolutions to reaffirm the 22nd Amendment. They want to put everyone on the record.
Politics is often about what you can get away with. If the public support is there, the legal barriers start to look more like suggestions than rules. At least, that's the fear from the opposition.
Trump's polling has hovered around 40% throughout 2025. Not exactly "mandate" territory, but his base remains fiercely loyal. In December 2025, billionaire donor Miriam Adelson reportedly pledged $250 million to help the cause. That is a staggering amount of money for a hypothetical run.
Why This Conversation is Different in 2026
We are currently heading into the 2026 midterms. Trump has already started grumbling about them.
Just a few days ago, on January 14, 2026, Trump told Reuters that "we shouldn't even have an election" because the country is doing so well. His press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, tried to walk it back as a joke. But when you combine that with "Trump 2028" hats, the joke starts to feel like a recurring theme.
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There’s a deep psychological component here. Trump hates the idea of being a "lame duck." Once people think you're leaving, you lose your power. By keeping the Trump considering third term narrative alive, he keeps the focus on him. He stays the center of the Republican universe.
If he admits he’s done in 2028, the jockeying for his successor—likely between JD Vance and Marco Rubio—begins in earnest. He’s not ready for that. He’s even quipped about canceling the 2028 election if the U.S. were at war.
It’s classic Trump. He floats an idea, sees how people react, and then either leans in or claims he was "speaking facetiously."
The Hard Reality of Constitutional Changes
Let's get practical for a second. Changing the Constitution is arguably the hardest thing to do in American government.
To repeal the 22nd Amendment, you need:
- A two-thirds vote in both the House and the Senate.
- Ratification by three-fourths of the states (that’s 38 states).
The math just doesn't work. Republicans have a thin majority in the House and control the Senate, but they are nowhere near two-thirds. And getting 38 states to agree on anything in 2026? Good luck.
Even if Trump wanted to stay, the mechanism to let him do it legally is basically broken. Unless, of course, the Supreme Court gets involved. Some conservatives hope the Court might interpret the 22nd Amendment narrowly, but even the current conservative-leaning bench has shown a reluctance to totally dismantle clear constitutional text.
Actionable Insights: What to Watch Next
If you’re trying to figure out where this is going, stop looking at the tweets and start looking at the paperwork. Here is what actually matters in the coming months:
Watch the 2026 Midterm Results
If Republicans lose the House or Senate, the "third term" talk will likely evaporate. Trump will be too busy fighting off investigations and impeachment threats to worry about 2028. If they win big? Expect the rhetoric to ramp up.
Monitor the 2028 Primary Filings
Keep an eye on when JD Vance or Marco Rubio start making moves. If they start distancing themselves or building their own war chests, it’s a sign they know Trump is actually stepping down. If they remain in a "holding pattern," the third-term talk is still the internal strategy.
State-Level Legislation
Some states, like California, are already trying to "Trump-proof" their ballots by requiring candidates to swear they are constitutionally eligible. Watch if red states pass "ballot access" laws that might try to challenge the 22nd Amendment’s reach.
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The Money Trail
Keep an eye on where that Adelson money goes. If it's being funneled into "constitutional education" or legal funds focused on term limits, the threat is real.
The idea of Trump considering third term options is currently a mix of political theater, a power play to avoid lame-duck status, and a genuine desire from his most ardent supporters to see the movement continue. While the legal path is almost non-existent, the political will to keep the conversation alive is stronger than ever.
Stay focused on the legislative sessions in early 2026. If a serious push to repeal or bypass the 22nd Amendment doesn't gain traction by the end of the year, 2028 will remain the hard deadline for this administration.