Texas is basically a graveyard for Democratic dreams. For years, people have been saying the state is "trending purple," yet every election cycle ends with a Republican victory lap. The 2024 showdown between incumbent Senator Ted Cruz and Representative Colin Allred was supposed to be different. If you looked at the Ted Cruz and Colin Allred polls throughout the summer and fall of 2024, you’d have seen a race that looked remarkably tight—sometimes even a statistical dead heat.
But then the actual votes were counted.
On November 5, 2024, Ted Cruz didn't just win; he cruised to a third term. He secured roughly 53.1% of the vote compared to Allred’s 44.6%. That’s a gap of about 8.5 percentage points, or nearly a million votes. It wasn't the nail-biter that many pundits predicted. So, why did the polls suggest a dogfight while the results looked like a standard Texas blowout?
The Polling Mirage vs. Reality
Honestly, polling in Texas is a nightmare for data scientists. You've got a massive, diverse population and a huge number of "low-propensity" voters who might show up once a decade. Leading up to the election, several high-profile surveys showed Allred within striking distance.
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In September 2024, a Morning Consult poll actually had Allred up by one point. Can you imagine the frenzy? Democratic donors poured over $80 million into Allred’s coffers, hoping this was finally the "Beto moment" that would actually stick. Even internal polls from the Allred camp just days before the election claimed the race was tied.
But the Ted Cruz and Colin Allred polls often failed to capture the sheer weight of the "Trump effect" in rural and South Texas. While Allred was doing well in the suburbs of Dallas and Houston, Cruz was making massive inroads with Hispanic voters—a demographic Democrats used to take for granted. By the time the dust settled, Cruz had won a slight majority of Hispanic and Latino voters, a tectonic shift in Texas politics.
Why the Polls Missed the Mark
Polling is hard. People lie to pollsters, or they just don't pick up the phone. But in this race, a few specific factors messed with the math:
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- The Kamala Harris "Drag": While Allred tried to run as a moderate, independent-minded Texan, Cruz successfully tied him to the national Democratic platform. In a state where Donald Trump won by double digits, being "Kamala’s candidate" is a tough sell.
- Spending vs. Messaging: Allred outspent Cruz for much of the cycle. He had the slick ads and the NFL pedigree. But Cruz focused on "meat and potatoes" issues: the border and the economy. One Cygnal poll in late October found that 54% of Texans cited inflation or illegal immigration as their top concern. Abortion, Allred’s primary focus, trailed far behind at 10%.
- The Enthusiasm Gap: Early voting numbers looked great for Democrats in urban centers, but the Election Day surge in rural counties was a crimson wave. Polls often struggle to weigh these geographic disparities correctly.
A Brutal Night for Democrats
If you're a Democrat in Texas, this result hurts. It’s the longest losing streak in the country—no statewide win for the party since 1994. Allred was arguably the "perfect" candidate: a former NFL linebacker, a civil rights lawyer, and a moderate congressman from a swing district. He didn't have the "polarizing" baggage that Beto O'Rourke carried after his 2020 presidential run.
Yet, he performed worse than O'Rourke did in 2018. Back then, Cruz only won by 2.6%. In 2024, he tripled that margin. It suggests that while Texas might be changing, it isn't changing nearly as fast as the Ted Cruz and Colin Allred polls led people to believe.
Key Takeaways for the Future
The 2024 cycle proved that money isn't everything. Allred raised over $80 million, making this one of the most expensive Senate races in American history. All that cash bought a lot of airtime, but it couldn't overcome the fundamental lean of the state.
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Crucial insights from the results:
- The Border Matters: Cruz’s "Keep Texas, Texas" bus tour leaned heavily into border security, which resonated even in traditionally Democratic border counties.
- Hispanic Voters are a Toss-up: The idea of a "monolithic" Hispanic vote is dead. Cruz winning a majority of this group is a blueprint for future GOP candidates.
- Ticket Splitting is Rare: Most Texans who voted for Trump voted for Cruz. There wasn't enough "Cruz-skeptical" Republican crossover to save Allred.
Looking ahead, the next big test for Texas will be the 2026 gubernatorial race. If Democrats want to break the curse, they’ll need to figure out why their messaging on reproductive rights isn't outweighing the GOP's edge on the economy and immigration.
For now, Ted Cruz remains a fixture in D.C., and the "Purple Texas" narrative is back on the shelf, at least for a few more years. To stay ahead of the next cycle, you should monitor the voter registration trends in the "Texas Triangle" (DFW, Houston, Austin/San Antonio) as these remain the only areas where Democrats are consistently gaining ground.
Compare these final 2024 numbers to the 2018 results to see exactly which counties shifted; it’s the best way to understand where the state is actually headed.