The noise around Texas football Arch Manning is loud. It's always been loud. Since the day he committed to Steve Sarkisian, the expectations haven't just been high—they’ve been borderline impossible. People expected a Manning-branded cyborg to step onto the field and never throw an incompletion.
Real life is messier.
If you actually watched the 2025 season, you saw a kid who is very clearly a human being. He’s talented, sure. But he’s also a guy who spent the first half of the year holding onto the ball like it was a family heirloom. He took sacks he shouldn't have. He missed reads. Honestly, there were moments in September where the burnt orange faithful were whispering—loudly—about whether the hype was just a name.
Then November happened.
🔗 Read more: ¿Cuándo juega el Medellín? El calendario real del Poderoso para no perderse nada
The 2025 Reality Check
Texas went 10-3. That’s a good season by most standards, but in the SEC, it feels like a "B minus" if you aren't playing in the national championship. Arch finished the year with 3,163 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. On paper? Solid. In reality? It was a roller coaster.
The low point was definitely the Florida game. The Gators brought pressure on 58% of his dropbacks. Arch looked rattled. He was double-clutching throws and finished with a QBR that made critics lick their chops. People forget he's a redshirt sophomore who hadn't played meaningful snaps in years.
Why the Citrus Bowl Changed Everything
Everything flipped on New Year’s Eve in Orlando. Texas vs. Michigan.
Arch didn't just play well; he played angry. He threw for two scores and ran for two more, including a 60-yard sprint that basically iced the game. He became the first player in Citrus Bowl history to put up 150 yards passing and 150 yards rushing in the same game.
Winning MVP was a statement. It wasn't just about the trophy; it was about the way he "popped the clutch" (as the announcers put it) and finally looked like he trusted his legs. He looked like a Manning, but with the wheels of a track star.
The $5.3 Million Question: Why Stay?
Most guys with a projected top-five NFL draft grade would be packing their bags for the league. Arch isn't. He’s staying in Austin for 2026.
His NIL valuation is currently sitting at $5.3 million, which is the highest in college sports. But here’s the thing: he’s actually taking a "pay cut" in terms of revenue sharing to help Texas bring in more portal talent. He wants a ring.
"I felt like I developed a lot this year, especially towards the back half, and I want to keep it going," Manning told reporters after the bowl game. "There’s no reason to leave."
It’s a rare move. Usually, the money talks. Here, the legacy seems to be doing the shouting.
Breaking Down the 2025 Performance
If you’re a scout, you’re looking at these specific numbers from his first full year as QB1:
- Completion Percentage: 61.4% (Needs work, honestly).
- Rushing TDs: 10 (Legitimate dual-threat weapon).
- Sacks Taken: 23 (A mix of a shaky O-line and Arch holding the ball too long).
- Signature Win: The 27-17 thriller over Texas A&M to end the regular season.
Sarkisian has been vocal about this. He’s basically said that Arch had to learn how to be "bad" before he could be "great." You can't simulate SEC speed in practice. You have to feel the pocket collapse in Gainesville or College Station to know when to bail.
What Needs to Happen in 2026
The "growth year" is over. Next season is the "win it all" year.
👉 See also: NFL Week 10 Schedule: What Most People Get Wrong
Texas is losing some pieces, but they’re aggressive in the portal. They’re reportedly closing in on a $1.8 million "transfer weapon" to give Arch another vertical threat. Ryan Wingo is back after a 770-yard freshman campaign, but the offense needs more "juice" in the run game.
Arch has to get the ball out faster. His average time to throw was over 3.2 seconds for most of 2025. That’s an eternity. If he cuts that down to 2.7 or 2.8, this offense becomes impossible to stop.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
If you're following the Longhorns' trajectory into the 2026 season, keep these factors in mind:
- Watch the O-Line Transfers: Arch’s success is 100% tied to his protection. If Texas doesn't land a premier tackle in the portal, expect more of those "hero ball" sacks.
- Monitor the RPO Frequency: Sarkisian drifted away from RPOs in 2025. If they re-integrate those quick hitters, Arch’s completion percentage will skyrocket.
- Heisman Odds: He’ll open 2026 as a top-three favorite. The value is usually better early before the hype train leaves the station in August.
- Schedule Difficulty: The September rematch with Ohio State is the litmus test. If he carves up the Buckeyes, the NFL talk will become deafening.
Arch Manning isn't a finished product. He's a 21-year-old kid who finally figured out how to win in the toughest conference in America. The 2025 season was the appetizer; 2026 is the main course.
Check the spring portal window. Texas needs a veteran interior lineman to keep the pocket clean for Arch. If they land one, the Longhorns are the team to beat for the SEC title.