Checking the ticker for the stock price Marriott International (MAR) used to feel like watching a predictable, slow-moving luxury train. You knew where it was going. Up. But as we settle into 2026, the vibe has shifted. It’s not that the train has derailed—far from it—but the tracks ahead look a lot more jagged than they did a year ago.
Right now, Marriott is trading around $326.50. Just a few days ago, it was hovering near $322. If you’ve been holding this since the 52-week low of $205.40, you're probably feeling like a genius. But if you’re looking to jump in today, the math gets "kinda" complicated.
Wall Street is currently having a bit of a localized identity crisis over this stock. On one hand, you have BMO Capital slapping a massive $370 price target on it, shouting about "outperformance." On the other, you’ve got Barclays and Mizuho sitting on the sidelines with "Hold" or "Neutral" ratings, worried that the domestic travel well is starting to run dry. It’s a classic tug-of-war between a massive global pipeline and the reality of a tired American consumer.
The Revenue Per Available Room Problem
Hotel nerds and analysts live and die by RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room). It’s the heartbeat of the industry.
Marriott’s latest numbers show a weird split. Internationally? It's a party. Markets in Europe and Asia-Pacific are seeing RevPAR jumps, sometimes nearly 3% to 5% year-over-year. But back home in the U.S. and Canada, things are essentially flat. Actually, in some quarters of late 2025, RevPAR actually dipped slightly by 0.4%.
💡 You might also like: TT Ltd Stock Price Explained: What Most Investors Get Wrong About This Textile Pivot
That’s a red flag for people who only look at the domestic market. We’ve hit a "normalization" phase. People aren't revenge-traveling with stimulus checks or post-lockdown desperation anymore. They’re price-shopping.
Why the Stock Price Marriott International Stays Resilient
If the U.S. market is cooling, why isn't the stock tanking? Basically, it’s because Marriott doesn't actually own most of its hotels.
They are "asset-light." They sell the brand, the tech, and the loyalty program. This means when a recession or a slowdown hits, Marriott doesn't have to worry about the massive mortgage on a 500-room property in Chicago; the owner does. Marriott just takes their fee off the top.
The Bonvoy "Moat"
Honestly, the real product isn't the bed—it's the Bonvoy program.
📖 Related: Disney Stock: What the Numbers Really Mean for Your Portfolio
- 260 million members. That is an insane number.
- Credit card fees. This is the secret sauce. About 21% of Marriott’s franchise fees come from those co-branded credit cards.
- MGM Partnership. This was a masterstroke. By linking with MGM Rewards, Marriott basically swallowed the Las Vegas Strip, adding 30,000+ rooms to their ecosystem without building a single wall.
When you have 260 million people locked into an ecosystem where they "must" stay at your hotels to keep their status, you have a floor on your stock price. It’s a recurring revenue model disguised as a travel company.
The 2026 Outlook: What the Pros are Seeing
Bernstein recently bumped their target to $327, citing a big "reversal" coming in 2026. They think Marriott has been spending too much on tech upgrades and refurbishments lately, which has dragged down cash flow. As those projects finish, that cash is going to start flowing back to shareholders.
Marriott is expected to return roughly $4 billion to shareholders this year. That’s a mix of dividends (currently around $2.64 per share annually) and aggressive share buybacks. When a company buys back its own stock, it makes the remaining shares more valuable. It’s a way of manufactured growth, and Marriott is a pro at it.
Major Risks to Watch
It’s not all champagne and high-thread-count sheets.
👉 See also: 1 US Dollar to 1 Canadian: Why Parity is a Rare Beast in the Currency Markets
- China Softness: Greater China has been flat. If that economy doesn't kick back into gear, Marriott loses its biggest growth engine.
- Labor Costs: Cleaning a room costs 20-30% more than it did three years ago. Owners are feeling the squeeze, and if owners aren't making money, they stop paying for renovations and new franchises.
- The "Mid-Scale" Gamble: Marriott is pushing hard into mid-scale and extended-stay (like their "StudioRes" brand). They’re trying to compete with the likes of Hilton’s Spark or Choice Hotels. If they dilute the "luxury" feel of the brand, they might lose their premium pricing power.
Should You Buy the Dip or Wait?
The stock price Marriott International currently trades at a P/E ratio of roughly 34. That is "not" cheap. For comparison, it’s a significant premium over some of its peers. You’re paying for the "gold standard" of loyalty programs and a massive pipeline of 596,000 rooms waiting to be built.
If you’re a long-term investor, the asset-light model is a dream. You get the upside of global travel without the headache of real estate maintenance. But if you’re looking for a quick swing trade, the volatility in the U.S. RevPAR might give you a better entry point later in the year.
Actionable Insights for Investors:
- Watch the Fed: If interest rates actually start a steady decline, the "pipeline" of hotels currently on hold will suddenly start breaking ground, boosting Marriott’s future fee revenue.
- Monitor the Credit Card Renewals: Marriott’s big credit card deals are up for renewal soon. A "favorable renewal" could add over 100 basis points to their EBITDA growth overnight.
- Diversification is Key: Don't just look at U.S. travel. If you see a headline about a tourism boom in Japan or Saudi Arabia, that’s a direct win for Marriott’s international fee segment.
Keep an eye on the $331 level. That’s the 52-week high. If it breaks that with strong volume, it’s likely headed toward the $350-370 range analysts are whispering about. If it fails to hold $310, we might see a slide back toward the $280s as the market recalibrates for a slower 2026.