Winter in North Carolina is basically a giant game of atmospheric poker. You think you've got a winning hand—a nice, juicy coastal low and a blast of cold air—and then the "dry slot" shows up and ruins everything. Honestly, if you’ve lived here for more than a week, you know the drill. One minute we're looking at bread and milk shortages, and the next, it’s just a cold, depressing rain that makes the backyard look like a swamp.
But today, Sunday, January 18, 2026, things are actually getting a bit spicy. We aren't just talking about the usual "maybe it'll flake" rumors. There is real snow in forecast for NC, specifically targeting the Highway 64 corridor and points north. If you're in Raleigh, Durham, or Henderson, you’re likely seeing the transition happen right now.
Why the Sunday setup is so tricky
Most folks see a "100% chance of precipitation" on their phone and assume the sleds are coming out. Not quite.
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Currently, the temperature is hovering around 40°F across much of central North Carolina. That is the danger zone. It’s cold enough to make you miserable, but not quite cold enough to turn the driveway into a winter wonderland. According to the National Weather Service in Raleigh, we started the morning with a cold rain that is rapidly trying to switch over to wet snow as an Arctic front pushes through.
The science is pretty simple, even if the result is messy. We have a "wet-bulb" effect happening. As the rain falls through drier air, it evaporates and cools the atmosphere down. Basically, the storm is making its own cold air. But here's the kicker: the ground is still warm from yesterday. Even if the sky dumps white stuff, it’s mostly going to melt the second it hits the pavement.
What to expect on the ground
- Grassy surfaces: This is where you’ll see the "accumulation." We’re talking a dusting to maybe a half-inch.
- Roads: Mostly just wet and slushy until the sun goes down.
- Elevated surfaces: Decks and car tops will look snowy first.
The "High-End" surprise and the I-95 divide
Is there a chance for a "real" snowstorm? Sorta. The NWS mentioned a "reasonable high-end scenario" where some localized spots could see 2 to 3 inches. This happens if a heavy snow band sets up and just parks itself over a specific town for two or three hours. If that happens, the sheer volume of snow can overcome the warm ground temperatures.
But if you’re east of I-95, like in Wilson or Rocky Mount, you’re likely stuck with the "Carolina Special"—cold rain followed by a quick burst of slush that disappears before you can even take a photo of it.
The real danger isn't the snow
Let's be real: North Carolinians love to joke about how we can't drive in the snow. But the actual threat tonight isn't the white stuff. It’s the "flash freeze."
The forecast shows temperatures plummeting to about 28°F tonight, and in some spots like Raleigh, it could hit the lower 20s. All that rain and melted slush from this afternoon? It’s going to turn into a sheet of black ice by tomorrow morning.
"Any lingering moisture or ponding on roads may freeze... this is most likely east of I-95 where the rain was heaviest." — NWS Raleigh Briefing, Jan 18.
Black ice is the silent killer on NC roads. You can't see it, you can't steer out of it easily, and it doesn't care if you have an SUV. If you're planning a commute on Monday morning, you’ve gotta be careful on bridges and overpasses. They lose heat faster than the ground and will be the first places to turn into skating rinks.
The 2026 winter outlook
So, is this it for the year? Probably not. We are currently in a weak La Niña pattern. Usually, that means warmer and drier for the Southeast, but 2026 has been acting a bit weird. The Old Farmer’s Almanac actually predicted "snowy surprises" for the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast this January, and so far, they aren't totally wrong.
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We’ve got another surge of Arctic air coming midweek. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are looking brutal, with wind chills potentially dropping into the teens. While there’s no big "snow in forecast for NC" for the later half of the week yet, the cold air is definitely sticking around.
How to handle the next 24 hours
Don't panic, but don't be oblivious either.
- Drip those faucets. If you’re in a spot hitting 20°F tonight, your pipes might not be ready for the shock, especially since it was just 60 degrees last week.
- Check the porch. If you have potted plants outside, bring 'em in. The rain followed by a hard freeze will kill the roots of anything sensitive.
- Watch the "Refreeze" timing. Temperatures will stay below freezing until about 10:00 AM Monday. If you can wait until then to leave the house, do it.
North Carolina weather is famously bipolar. By next Saturday, we might be back in the 50s with more rain. But for right now, keep an eye on the thermometer and watch those shaded spots on the road. The snow is the show, but the ice is the reality.
Stay safe out there and maybe keep a bag of salt by the front door just in case.
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Actionable Next Steps:
- Check your local NWS office (Raleigh, Morehead City, or Wilmington) for the 4:00 PM update on snow totals.
- Monitor "Black Ice" advisories starting at 8:00 PM tonight as temperatures cross the freezing mark.
- Ensure outdoor pets have a warm, dry place to stay as wind chills hit the teens tonight.