You’ve probably seen the headlines. NEOM, the 170-kilometer city in the sand. The massive "The Line" project. The endless stream of soccer stars—like Cristiano Ronaldo and Neymar—heading to the desert for massive paychecks. It’s easy to look at the Saudi Arabia Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (widely known as MBS), and see a guy just throwing money at a legacy.
But if you’re only looking at the shiny stuff, you’re missing the actual story.
Honestly, the real shift isn't just about skyscrapers or sports. It is about a country basically trying to rewrite its entire DNA before the oil runs out. It’s a race against time. The Crown Prince is currently steering the Kingdom into "Phase 3" of Vision 2030 as of early 2026, and the stakes have never been higher. We are talking about a total structural overhaul.
The Saudi Arabia Crown Prince and the "Third Phase"
By January 2026, the narrative around MBS has shifted from "can he do it?" to "can he finish it?"
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Saudi Arabia just approved its 2026 budget, and it’s a monster. We are talking about SAR 1.31 trillion in planned spending. The goal? Doubling down. The Crown Prince recently directed his ministers to move even faster. He isn't just talking about 2030 anymore; he’s looking at what happens after.
The economy grew by about 4.6% recently, and here is the kicker: the non-oil sector is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. In 2023, non-oil GDP actually hit over 50% for the first time. That’s huge. If you’re a business person, you’ve noticed that Riyadh is becoming a hub where you actually have to be if you want to do business in the Middle East. It’s no longer optional.
What it’s actually like on the ground
Forget the western news cycles for a second. If you walk through Riyadh or Jeddah today, the vibe is just... different.
The religious police? Basically a memory.
Women driving? That’s old news now.
Today, women make up over 36% of the workforce. That’s a massive jump from 17% just a few years ago. MBS has managed to gain a ton of popularity among the youth—roughly 70% of Saudis are under 35—because he’s given them a culture they actually want to live in. Concerts, cinemas, and professional sports aren't just "events" anymore; they are part of the daily fabric.
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But it’s not all sunshine.
There are real growing pains. Some reports in early 2026 suggest a bit of domestic grumbling about rising prices and the sheer cost of living. When you overhaul an entire economy, someone always feels the squeeze. The "Middle Class" is being asked to adapt to a world where subsidies are disappearing and taxes (like VAT) are the new normal.
The Geopolitical Tightrope
The Saudi Arabia Crown Prince isn't just a domestic reformer; he’s trying to be the regional stabilizer.
It’s complicated.
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Right now, there’s a noticeable rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It’s like a sibling rivalry but with billions of dollars and military consequences. In Yemen, the coalition has fractured. Saudi forces have recently taken a much firmer stance to protect their own interests, moving away from the influence of Abu Dhabi’s Mohammed bin Zayed.
MBS is also playing a very careful game with the big powers. He just met with U.S. leadership to discuss a structured security relationship. He knows that for Vision 2030 to work, he needs the Red Sea to be safe and the region to be quiet. You can't have luxury tourists in NEOM if there are missiles flying nearby.
- The U.S. Factor: Looking for a reliable partner in energy and diplomacy (Gaza, Sudan).
- The China Factor: A massive trade partner that doesn't ask questions about internal politics.
- The Regional Coalitions: New talks are happening with Egypt and Somalia to secure the Red Sea.
The Reality of the Megaprojects
We have to talk about NEOM.
People love to call it a "vanity project." And yeah, it’s ambitious to the point of sounding like sci-fi. But for the Crown Prince, these aren't just buildings. They are "Special Economic Zones." They are meant to be labs for new tech, from green hydrogen to AI-driven logistics.
However, the costs are staggering. The 2026 budget shows a deficit of about SAR 165 billion. Why? Because these projects are expensive, and foreign direct investment (FDI), while growing, hasn't totally replaced the need for government "seed money" from the Public Investment Fund (PIF).
What happens next?
If you’re watching Saudi Arabia, keep your eyes on the "Human Capability Development Program." It sounds like corporate speak, but it's actually about retraining millions of people to work in tech and tourism instead of government desk jobs.
The Crown Prince has made it clear: the "Year of Isa Al Kabeer" (2026) in neighboring Bahrain and the general shift in Gulf dynamics mean Saudi is no longer just a "big brother." It's an aggressive competitor.
Actionable Insights for 2026:
- For Investors: Focus on the "localization" of manufacturing. The Kingdom is moving away from just buying stuff to making it (think Ceer for EVs and Alat for tech).
- For Travelers: The tourism target has been bumped up to 150 million visitors by 2030. Expect more streamlined visa processes and a massive push for "Red Sea" luxury stays.
- For Policy Wonks: Watch the Saudi-Oman and Saudi-Egypt ties. Riyadh is building a "Red Sea Wall" of alliances to keep trade routes open.
The story of the Saudi Arabia Crown Prince is far from over. It’s a high-speed experiment in state-building that has no parallel in modern history. Whether it succeeds or hits a wall depends entirely on if the "Third Phase" can deliver actual jobs and stability for the average person in the street.
To stay ahead of the curve, keep a close watch on the quarterly PIF reports. These are the truest indicators of which "Vision" projects are getting the most fuel and which ones are being quietly scaled back to manage the 2026 deficit. Monitoring the Saudi-UAE diplomatic channel will also be crucial for understanding maritime security in the Red Sea over the coming months.