You’ve probably stepped outside in San Rafael expecting one thing and getting another. It’s a common story here in Marin. Honestly, the standard weather report for San Rafael often misses the nuance of what’s actually happening on the ground.
Today, Tuesday, January 13, 2026, we’re looking at a high of 59°F and a low of 44°F. It’s sunny, it’s crisp, and that 5 mph northeast wind is just enough to keep you reaching for a light jacket. But if you’re over in Terra Linda, you might feel a world away from someone down by the Canal.
The Microclimate Reality Most People Miss
San Rafael isn't just one big block of weather. It’s a patchwork. Basically, you’ve got the bay on one side and the ridges on the other, and they’re constantly fighting for dominance.
While the official report says it’s 59°F, the "inland" parts of town—think Lucas Valley or the back of Terra Linda—often run a few degrees warmer during the day. Why? Because the hills act like a giant shield against the Pacific's marine layer.
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But then there’s the humidity. Right now, it’s sitting at 56%. That’s relatively low for a coastal town in January. It means the air feels dry and sharp rather than heavy.
What the Next Few Days Actually Look Like
If you’re planning your week, don't expect a massive shift. Tomorrow, Wednesday, January 14, the mercury ticks up a tiny bit to 60°F with a low of 47°F. Still sunny. Still clear.
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- Thursday, Jan 15: High of 59°F. The wind picks up to 11 mph.
- Friday, Jan 16: Back to 60°F. Humidity drops slightly to 58%.
- The Weekend: We stay steady at 60°F on Saturday, though clouds might start creeping in at night.
It’s that classic Mediterranean winter cycle. Cool, wet-ish (though not this week), and rarely freezing. Speaking of rain, the chance of precipitation is effectively 0% for the next several days. If you were hoping for a reason to stay inside and watch Netflix, the weather isn't giving you one.
Why January in San Rafael Feels Different
Most people think of January as "winter," but in San Rafael, it’s more like "extended autumn." According to historical data from sources like the UC Marin Master Gardeners, our Mediterranean climate means we only get about 2% of the world's land area but a massive chunk of its plant diversity because our winters are so mild.
We rarely see a hard frost. The typical January high is around 57°F, so we’re actually running a couple of degrees above average today.
The Marine Layer Factor
If you live near the eastern flats or the San Rafael Rock Quarry, you know the bay influence is real. You’ll get that morning fog that makes everything look like a noir film. It usually burns off by 10:00 AM, but it keeps the temperature from spiking too early.
In contrast, if you’re up on a south-facing slope, you’re getting hammered with direct sun. Your garden thinks it’s springtime while the rest of us are still wearing sweaters. This is why a single weather report for San Rafael can feel so inaccurate depending on your specific street.
Practical Steps for San Rafael Residents This Week
Since we’re looking at a stretch of clear, sunny days with highs around 60°F and lows in the mid-40s, here is how to actually handle it:
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- Layer Up: The 15-degree swing between the day’s high and the night’s low is enough to catch you off guard. A morning commute at 44°F requires a real coat; a 2:00 PM walk at 59°F requires a t-shirt.
- Check Your Irrigation: Even though it’s January, the 0% chance of rain means your yard might be getting thirstier than you think. Keep an eye on those "Sun-exposed slopes" which dry out fast.
- UV Protection: The UV index is currently 0, but it hits 2 during the day. It’s low, but if you’re out hiking China Camp for three hours, the sun still has some bite.
- Wind Management: Thursday's 11 mph wind might be annoying if you have loose patio furniture or a light umbrella. Secure them Wednesday night.
By Saturday night, we might see some "mostly cloudy" conditions moving in, which usually hints at a shift in the pressure system. For now, enjoy the sun. It’s about as good as a California winter gets.
Actionable Insight: Monitor the northeast wind on Thursday if you're planning outdoor activities; at 11 mph, it will make the 59°F high feel significantly cooler than today's 5 mph breeze.