Ever tried to explain to a casual fan why a 12-loss team is suddenly ranked higher than a 2-loss team in January? It feels like trying to explain quantum physics using only basketball metaphors. You’ve probably stared at the ratings for ncaa basketball on a Tuesday night, wondering how on earth the NET, KenPom, and the AP Poll can all look at the same group of athletes and see three different realities.
Honestly, it’s a mess. But it’s a beautiful, data-driven mess.
The landscape of college hoops has shifted. We aren't just looking at wins and losses anymore. Now, we’re looking at "efficiency," "quadrants," and "strength of record." If you want to understand who is actually going to make a run in March 2026, you have to look past the jerseys and into the math.
Why the NET Rating Rules Your Life
Back in the day, we had the RPI. It was simple. It was also kinda terrible. The NCAA finally ditched it for the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool), and while the exact "secret sauce" formula isn't public, we know the big ingredients.
The NET basically cares about two things: how well you play (Efficiency) and who you beat (Team Value Index).
It’s not just about winning. It's about how you win. If Arizona beats a cupcake team by 30 points, the NET nods in approval. If they struggle and win by two, the NET starts looking at them sideways. This creates a weird incentive for coaches to keep their starters in late during blowouts, which some people think is "classless," but hey, the computer doesn't care about your feelings.
The Quadrant System (The Real Bracketology)
The selection committee uses the NET to sort games into "Quadrants." This is where the magic—and the heartbreak—happens.
- Quadrant 1 (Q1): These are the elite wins. Beating a top-30 team at home or a top-75 team on the road.
- Quadrant 2 (Q2): Solid wins. Think home games against teams ranked 31-75.
- Quadrant 3 & 4: The danger zones. A loss here is a "resume killer."
If you see a team like Michigan sitting at 15-1 but they only have one Q1 win, they might actually be ranked lower than a "battle-tested" SEC team with five losses. It feels wrong, but that's the logic.
KenPom vs. The World: The Predictive Power
If the NET is the "resume" of what you've done, KenPom is the "crystal ball" of what you will do. Ken Pomeroy is basically the godfather of modern college basketball analytics.
His ratings for ncaa basketball focus on Adjusted Efficiency. He calculates how many points a team would score or give up over 100 possessions against an average opponent.
Here’s the thing: KenPom often smells a "fraud" long before the AP Poll does. You might see a team start 10-0 because they played a bunch of middle schools, but KenPom will have them at #50 because their efficiency metrics are trash. Conversely, a team like Houston might have a couple of early losses but stay in the top 5 because their defensive efficiency is off the charts.
Most serious bettors and bracketologists trust KenPom over almost anything else. If a team is in the top 10 of both Offensive and Defensive efficiency on KenPom, they’re almost locks for the Final Four. Historically, it's very rare for a team to win it all without being elite on both sides of the ball in these metrics.
The TV Ratings Game: Who is Actually Watching?
We can’t talk about ratings for ncaa basketball without talking about the "other" ratings: TV viewership.
The 2025-2026 season has been wild for the bean counters at CBS and ESPN. Interestingly, the women’s game is still carrying massive momentum even after the "Caitlin Clark era." In 2025, the Women’s Championship peaked at 9.9 million viewers. That’s huge.
On the men's side, traditional powers like Kansas, North Carolina, and Duke still drive the needle, but there's a shift. When Michigan State played North Carolina on Thanksgiving 2025, it pulled 5.49 million viewers—a record for Fox. People are watching, but they’re watching differently.
The "transfer portal" era has made it harder for casual fans to keep track of their own rosters, let alone everyone else's. This has led to a slight dip in regular-season "appointment viewing" for mid-tier games, but the "Big Games" are bigger than ever. Fans are tuning in for the stars and the "super-teams" built through NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) money.
NIL and The Portal: The New Rating Factor
You won't find this on a spreadsheet, but there’s a "NIL Rating" in everyone's head now.
Programs like Indiana and Kentucky have basically used the transfer portal like a professional free-agency market. Indiana, for instance, rebuilt their entire squad by grabbing guys like Oumar Ballo (formerly of Arizona) and Myles Rice.
How does this affect the ratings for ncaa basketball?
- Volatility: Teams can go from unranked to top 10 in one offseason.
- Veteran Dominance: Ratings now favor older teams. A "young and talented" freshman class usually gets eaten alive by 23-year-old transfers who have played 120 college games.
- The "Haves" vs. "Have-Nots": The gap is widening. The Big 12 is currently the #1 rated conference by RPI and NET because they have the most money to keep the best players.
How to Read These Ratings Like a Pro
Stop looking at the number next to the team's name on the TV ticker. That’s the AP Poll. It’s voted on by humans who might have missed half the games because they were busy or biased.
Instead, look at the NET Rankings on the NCAA website and cross-reference them with KenPom or BartTorvik.
If a team is #5 in the AP Poll but #22 in KenPom, be very careful. They are likely overvalued and due for a "regression to the mean" (a fancy way of saying they’re gonna lose soon).
Actionable Insights for Your Bracket
- The "Top 20" Rule: Almost every national champion in the last 20 years has been ranked in the top 20 of both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive efficiency on KenPom by the time the tournament starts.
- Watch the "Away" NET: The NET heavily rewards road wins. A team that is 8-0 at home but 1-4 on the road is a "paper tiger." They will fold in a neutral-site tournament game.
- Strength of Schedule (SOS): Look for teams with a high "Non-Conference SOS." If a team challenged themselves in November and December, they are better prepared for the grind of March than a team that padded their record with easy home wins.
Ultimately, these ratings are just tools. They don't account for a star player getting the flu or a ref making a "block/charge" call that changes the course of history. But if you want to be the smartest person in your office pool, stop trusting your gut and start trusting the efficiency margin.
Check the NET rankings every Monday morning. Look for the teams that are climbing the "Quadrants" without anyone noticing. That’s where the value is. Whether you’re watching for the love of the game or trying to find an edge in the sportsbooks, understanding the math behind the madness is the only way to stay ahead.
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Keep an eye on the "Wins Above Bubble" (WAB) metric this season too. It's a newer favorite for the selection committee that measures how many wins a team has compared to what an average "bubble team" would have against that same schedule. It’s the ultimate "cut the crap" metric for determining who actually belongs in the dance.