Man, the West is just a blender right now. Honestly, if you took a break from the league for a few weeks and just tuned back in today, Wednesday, January 14, 2026, you'd probably think the standings were upside down. Except for the Oklahoma City Thunder. They're still ridiculous.
But behind them? It’s absolute chaos.
We are officially in that mid-January grind where the "Western Conference NBA playoff picture" stops being a theoretical exercise and starts becoming a daily math problem. Some teams are surging, some are falling off a cliff, and about six of them are separated by what feels like half a game and a prayer.
The Thunder are Living in a Different Reality
OKC is sitting at 34-7. Let that sink in. They aren't just winning; they’re demoralizing people. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing like he's bored with regular-season defense, and the depth they’ve built is basically a cheat code. Even with Nikola Topic recently resuming training after his battle with testicular cancer—a huge win for him personally—the team hasn't missed a beat. They have a point differential of +13. That’s not a basketball team; it’s a steamroller.
They’re the only team in the West that feels "safe." Everyone else is looking over their shoulder.
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The San Antonio Surprise
Can we talk about the Spurs for a second? 27-13. Victor Wembanyama has officially turned the "potential" into "problem." Teams used to be able to wait for the Spurs to make young-team mistakes, but that window closed sometime in November. They’re currently holding down the 2nd seed, which feels insane considering where they were two years ago.
That Brutal Middle Tier: Where Nobody is Safe
If you’re the Denver Nuggets or the Minnesota Timberwolves, you’re probably looking at the standings and feeling a little sick. Denver is 28-13, and Minnesota is 27-14. Normally, that’s "home-court advantage" territory. In 2026? It means you're one bad week away from the play-in tournament.
The Rockets are the real wild card here. They’re 23-14 and playing with this weird, frantic energy that makes them a nightmare on the second night of back-to-backs. Adding Kevin Durant to this core was a gamble that’s paying off way better than the skeptics expected. Sengun has room to breathe because you can't leave KD, and Amen Thompson is just causing havoc everywhere.
The Lakers are right there, too, at 24-14. Luka Doncic in a Lakers jersey still looks like a Photoshop to some people, but the 40-point triple-doubles are very real. They’re the 5th seed as of today, but with LeBron James taking more "maintenance days," their margin for error is razor-thin.
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Why the 6th Through 10th Spots Matter Most
- Houston Rockets (23-14): They’re currently 6th. They have a +7 point differential, which suggests they might actually be better than their record.
- Phoenix Suns (24-16): They’ve finally clawed their way into the top 7. Devin Booker is carrying a massive load, and while their defense is "fine," it’s not exactly championship-level.
- Golden State Warriors (22-19): Steph is still Steph, but they’re 8th. Jimmy Butler is there now, which gives them that "don't want to see them in a seven-game series" vibe, but they are old.
- Portland Trail Blazers (19-22): They’re the 9th seed and surprisingly feisty. They’ve beaten Denver and OKC this year.
- Memphis Grizzlies (17-22): Hovering at 10th. They’re just trying to keep their heads above water.
The Trade Deadline Ripple Effect
We just passed the January 8 trade deadline, and it’s already shifting the Western Conference NBA playoff picture. The Lakers and Timberwolves were the busiest. Minnesota went out and grabbed some veteran defensive help because, frankly, their bench was getting torched in December.
The Warriors also made some "chemistry moves" to try and maximize whatever is left in the Curry/Butler window. Whether it works or not depends on if they can stay out of the 9/10 play-in game. Nobody wants to play a single-elimination game against a young, hungry team like Portland.
The Bottom Feeders and the Disappointments
Dallas is 15-25. It’s hard to watch. After the Luka trade, they’ve struggled to find an identity, and the 12th seed is a lonely place to be when you were expecting a deep run.
And then there's New Orleans. 10-33. They’re essentially at the bottom of the well with the Sacramento Kings (11-30). For the Pelicans, this season has been a slow-motion car crash of injuries and inconsistent rotations. They aren't even in the "picture" anymore; they’re the frame.
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Actionable Insights for the Second Half
If you’re tracking this race, you need to watch the schedule for the next two weeks. We have some massive tiebreaker games coming up.
First, keep an eye on the Spurs-Thunder matchup. If San Antonio can actually take a game off OKC, it might change the psychological landscape of the top seed. Second, watch the Warriors' road record. They’ve been mediocre away from Chase Center, and their upcoming trip through the East could determine if they stay in the top 8 or fall into the play-in trap.
The Western Conference NBA playoff picture is a moving target. By the time the All-Star break hits in February, three of these teams will likely have swapped spots. Don't get comfortable with the current seeds; the West doesn't do "comfortable."
Check the injury reports for the Lakers and Suns particularly. Both teams are top-heavy and one rolled ankle away from a five-game losing streak. If you're looking for value, the Rockets are the team to watch—they are undervalued by the national media but the underlying stats say they're a top-four team in disguise.