Wait and see. That was basically the vibe coming out of the Kremlin the morning after the 2024 U.S. election. While leaders across Europe were tripping over themselves to be the first to tweet a "congratulations" to Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin stayed remarkably quiet. No telegram. No phone call. No flashy state media fanfare.
It felt weird, didn't it? Back in 2016, the Russian Duma literally broke into applause when they heard Trump won. This time? Crickets. Honestly, if you were expecting a victory parade in Moscow, you probably missed how much the world has shifted since the last time these two were in the same room. By the time Putin finally did speak up—a few days later at the Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi—his tone wasn't just celebratory. It was calculated. It was a performance.
Putin on Trump Victory: The "Real Man" Rhetoric
When Putin finally broke his silence on November 7, 2024, he didn't just give a dry diplomatic statement. He went for the personality. He called Trump "courageous" and said he acted "like a man" during the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania.
Think about that for a second. Putin is a guy who has spent two decades crafting an image of "hyper-masculinity"—judging people based on toughness. By praising Trump’s reaction to a literal bullet, he wasn't just being nice. He was signaling that he finally had someone across the table he felt he could respect on a primal level. Or, at the very least, someone he could manipulate with flattery.
Why the delay actually mattered
The initial silence from Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov was a power move. Peskov told reporters that Russia wouldn't forget the U.S. is an "unfriendly country" directly involved in a war against them. Basically, they wanted to make sure Trump knew that while they liked his rhetoric, they weren't going to be "easy."
But then came the pivot. In Sochi, Putin said Trump’s desire to restore relations and end the Ukrainian crisis "deserves attention." It was the classic "I’m not chasing you, but I’m listening" routine.
The Ukraine Factor: 24 Hours or 24 Months?
We've all heard Trump’s claim that he could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Putin knows that's probably hyperbole, but he’s leaning into it anyway. For the Kremlin, a Trump victory represents a massive question mark for the future of NATO and military aid to Kyiv.
If you look at the 2025 landscape, the shift is already happening. Putin has been very clear: he’s not looking for a "quick fix" or a temporary ceasefire that lets Ukraine re-arm. He wants what he calls "long-term peace," which is code for Russia keeping the territory it currently occupies and Ukraine staying out of NATO forever.
What Russia actually expects
- A seat at the "Great Power" table: Putin wants to return to a world where a few big countries decide the fate of smaller ones.
- The end of the "Sanctions Era": This is a long shot, but Moscow is hoping Trump’s "America First" policy means less interest in strangling the Russian economy.
- Direct Communication: Putin complained that Western leaders "stopped calling" him. He wants the phone to start ringing again.
Honestly, the Kremlin is playing a long game. They remember that during Trump’s first term, despite the warm words, the U.S. actually increased sanctions and sent Javelin missiles to Ukraine. They aren't naive. They know the "deep state" (as they call it) in Washington doesn't just disappear because the President changes.
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Nuclear Stakes and the 2026 Deadline
By January 20, 2025, the tone shifted from "wait and see" to "let's talk." On the day of the inauguration, Putin congratulated Trump on taking office and immediately brought up the big stuff: World War III and nuclear arms.
There's a ticking clock here. The New START treaty—the last big deal keeping nuclear warheads in check between the U.S. and Russia—is set to expire on February 5, 2026. If these two can't sit down and sign something before then, we're in "Wild West" territory for nukes.
Putin mentioned this specifically during a Security Council meeting shown on state TV. He’s using the fear of global escalation as a bridge. He knows Trump hates the idea of being the "war president" and prefers being the "deal maker." By framing everything as "preventing World War III," Putin gives Trump the perfect excuse to make concessions.
The "Bro-mance" vs. The Reality
People love to talk about the personal chemistry between the two. Trump has called Putin "smart" and "a genius." Putin calls Trump "courageous." But don't let the compliments fool you.
In Moscow, there’s a cynical joke that Trump is "ours," but in reality, Russian elites are deeply split. Some think he’s a chaos agent who weakens the West—which is good for Russia. Others think he’s too unpredictable. If Trump decides to play hardball—say, by crashing oil prices to hurt the Russian budget—that "friendship" will evaporate in about five minutes.
Actionable Insights: What to Watch Next
If you’re trying to track where this goes, ignore the tweets and the late-night talk show commentary. Watch these three things:
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- The May 9 Victory Day Parade: There’s already chatter about whether Trump might actually visit Moscow for the anniversary of the end of WWII. If that happens, it’s a total game-changer for Russia’s international standing.
- The New START Negotiations: If a team of diplomats isn't meeting in Geneva or Helsinki by mid-2025, the nuclear risk goes through the roof.
- The "Zelenskyy Factor": Watch how the Kremlin talks about the Ukrainian government. If they start referring to them as "illegitimate" more frequently, it means they’ve been given a green light to ignore Kyiv and only talk to Washington.
The bottom line? Putin views the Trump victory as an opening, not a guaranteed win. He’s ready to negotiate, but he’s coming to the table with a list of demands that would have been unthinkable three years ago. Whether he gets them depends on if Trump's "Art of the Deal" includes giving up the farm in Eastern Europe.
For those looking to understand the geopolitical ripple effects, keep a close eye on the energy markets. Russia's economy is currently a "war economy," and any shift in U.S. energy policy that drives down global oil prices will do more to influence Putin than a thousand diplomatic summits ever could.