If you’re checking the Puerto Vallarta weather 14 day forecast right now, you might see a string of cloud icons and panic. Don't. Honestly, looking at a generic weather app while planning a trip to Banderas Bay is a bit like reading a menu in a language you don't speak—you get the gist, but you’re missing the flavor.
January in Vallarta is technically "winter," but for anyone coming from Chicago or Vancouver, that word is a total lie. We are talking about the height of the dry season. It’s the time of year when the humidity finally takes a hike, the Sierra Madre mountains are still a vibrant, lush green from the summer rains, and the air feels like a silk sheet.
But there are nuances.
The Reality of the Puerto Vallarta Weather 14 Day Forecast
Right now, as we move through mid-January 2026, the local atmosphere is dominated by a stable high-pressure system. If you look at the specific 14-day outlook starting today, January 13, you’ll notice a very consistent pattern that defines the Mexican Pacific this time of year.
The Temperature Breakdown
Daytime highs are hovering between 79°F and 86°F. It’s warm. It’s "tacos and a cold Pacifico by the pool" warm. However, the lows are where people get tripped up. At night, the mercury dips down to about 67°F.
That 20-degree swing matters.
If you're walking the Malecón at 10:00 PM, that breeze coming off the ocean isn't just "refreshing"—it can actually be chilly. Most tourists end up buying an overpriced souvenir hoodie because they didn't believe the forecast.
Cloud Cover and the "Gray" Myth
You might see "mostly cloudy" or "partly sunny" on your 14-day ticker for the next week. In Vallarta, this usually refers to high-altitude cirrus clouds or a light morning haze that burns off by 11:00 AM. Unlike the overcast gloom of the Pacific Northwest, "cloudy" here often means "great lighting for photos" rather than "ruined beach day."
Will It Actually Rain?
Basically, no.
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Statistically, January is one of the driest months in the state of Jalisco. The chance of precipitation over the next 14 days is sitting at a measly 5% to 10%. Even if a rogue cloud decides to let go, it’s usually a "blink and you’ll miss it" sprinkle. We aren't in the tropical storm window anymore; that ended back in October.
According to historical data from the National Meteorological Service (SMN), Puerto Vallarta only averages about 0.6 inches of rain for the entire month of January. You have a better chance of seeing a whale breach from your balcony than you do of needing an umbrella.
Why the Water Temperature is the Real Secret
While the air is perfectly mild, the Pacific Ocean has a bit of a lag. The water temperature right now is roughly 77°F (25°C).
Is it swimmable? Absolutely.
Is it "bath water" like it is in August? Not quite.
For snorkeling at Los Arcos or taking a boat out to Marietas Islands, the water is crisp. It’s the kind of temperature where you hesitate for a second before jumping in, but once you’re in, you never want to leave. Surfers at Sayulita or Punta Mita are mostly fine in board shorts, though a 2mm spring suit isn't a crazy idea for early morning sessions.
Humidity: The Silent Travel Partner
One thing the Puerto Vallarta weather 14 day forecast rarely highlights is the dew point. In the summer, the humidity is so thick you can practically chew the air. In January, the relative humidity sits around 60% to 65%.
This is the "sweet spot."
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It’s enough to keep your skin from drying out, but not so much that you’re sweating through your shirt the moment you leave the hotel lobby. It makes hiking the trail from Boca de Tomatlan to Las Animas actually enjoyable rather than a feat of endurance.
Handling the UV Index
This is where the expert advice kicks in: Do not trust the "cool" breeze. Even when it’s 79°F and breezy, the UV index in Puerto Vallarta regularly hits 5 to 7 (High) during the afternoon.
Because the air feels mild, you don't feel the "burn" happening.
Then, you wake up the next day looking like a lobster.
The sun at this latitude (roughly the same as Hawaii) is significantly stronger than in the southern US or Europe. If you’re planning to be on a boat over the next 14 days, the reflection off the water doubles that exposure. Reapply the SPF 30 every two hours, even if you feel "cool."
What to Pack Based on the Current 14-Day Trend
Since the forecast is staying steady with warm days and cool nights, your suitcase needs to be a bit of a hybrid. Forget the heavy coats, obviously, but don't go full "beach bum" either.
- The "Evening Essential": A light denim jacket, a linen sweater, or a pashmina. You will need this for dinner.
- Breathable Fabrics: Linen and cotton are your best friends. Save the polyester for somewhere else.
- The Footwear Split: Sandals for the day, but comfortable walking shoes for the evening. Vallarta’s cobblestones are notorious for eating flip-flops and twisting ankles.
- Polarized Sunglasses: Between the glare from the Banderas Bay and the white sand at Conchas Chinas, your eyes will thank you.
Looking Ahead: The End of the Month
As we look toward the tail end of the 14-day window, around January 25th to 27th, we expect the temperatures to climb slightly. We’re moving into the heart of whale watching season, and the sea state remains remarkably calm. This is peak "High Season" for a reason—the weather is as close to objective perfection as a tropical destination can get.
If you see a dip in the forecast, it’s likely just a "Norte" (a cold front from the north) pushing through. These occasionally bring slightly stronger winds and drop the nighttime lows into the high 50s, but they rarely last more than 48 hours.
Actionable Insights for Your Trip:
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- Book boat tours for the morning: The bay is usually calmest before the afternoon winds pick up around 2:00 PM.
- Check the swell: If you’re a surfer, keep an eye on North Pacific swells; January can bring some sleeper sets to the points.
- Dinner reservations: Since everyone wants to eat outside to enjoy the 70-degree evenings, the best sunset spots (like La Palapa or El Panorama) fill up fast. Book at least 3 days out.
- Hydrate: Even without the sweat-inducing humidity, the salt air and sun will dehydrate you faster than you think.
The most important takeaway? Stop refreshing the weather app. The Puerto Vallarta weather 14 day forecast is telling you that it’s going to be gorgeous, and even the "worst" day in Vallarta right now is probably better than a Tuesday anywhere else.
Pack the sunscreen, grab a light sweater for the nights, and get ready for some of the best weather Mexico has to offer.
Next Steps for Your Trip:
Verify the specific daily highs for your arrival date and secure your whale watching permits now, as the calm January seas make for high demand during this 14-day window.