Stocks usually have a way of humbling you just when you think you’ve caught a wave. On Friday, January 16, 2026, Merck & Co. (MRK) closed at $108.84. That’s a drop of about 1.92% on the day. Honestly, if you were watching the ticker in real-time, it felt a bit like a slow leak. It opened at $110.72, flirted with $110.73, and then basically spent the rest of the afternoon sliding toward its daily low of $108.43.
But here’s the thing. Context is everything in the pharma world.
Even with today's red candle, the price of merck stock today reflects a company that’s actually been on a bit of a tear lately. Just a few days ago, Merck hit $111.01, capping off a massive 10% rally over the last month. You've got to look at the "why" behind the numbers. Wall Street is currently obsessed with what Merck is going to say on February 3, 2026—that’s when the Q4 2025 earnings report drops.
The $70 Billion Confidence Shock
Most people focus on the daily price of merck stock today, but the smart money is looking at the mid-2030s. On January 12th, Merck management basically gave the market a "confidence shock." They raised their long-term revenue targets for new growth drivers to $70 billion.
Think about that for a second.
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They aren't just relying on their superstar cancer drug Keytruda anymore. They are betting the farm on cardiometabolic and respiratory treatments. Specifically, a drug called Winrevair (sotatercept) is becoming a huge deal. It recently got a thumbs-up from the EU’s CHMP for expanded use in pulmonary arterial hypertension. If you’re tracking the stock, these regulatory wins are the invisible hands pushing the price around.
Why the "Patent Cliff" Still Scares People
You can't talk about Merck without mentioning the elephant in the room: 2028. That is the year Keytruda—which basically accounts for half of Merck’s pharma sales—loses its patent protection in the U.S.
Investors are terrified of "patent cliffs." When a drug goes generic, revenue usually falls off a map.
The Counter-Strategy
Merck isn't just sitting there waiting to get hit by the bus. They’ve been aggressively moving patients toward a subcutaneous version of Keytruda (Keytruda Qlex). Why? Because it’s protected by a whole new set of patents that stretch way beyond 2028. It’s also way faster for patients to get than an IV drip.
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Also, they’ve been on a shopping spree. They just finished the acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics and are rumored to be looking at a $32 billion deal for Revolution Medicines. This is "M&A" (mergers and acquisitions) in action. When Merck buys a smaller biotech, it’s basically buying a future revenue stream to replace the ones it's losing.
Is Merck Actually "Cheap" Right Now?
If you look at the fundamentals, the price of merck stock today looks sort of weirdly undervalued. It's trading at a forward P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratio of about 13.6 to 14.4.
Compare that to the rest of the pharmaceutical industry, which usually averages around 20.
- Zacks Rank: Currently a #5 (Strong Sell) due to some recent downward revisions in earnings estimates.
- Simply Wall St DCF: Their model suggests an intrinsic value of $201.47. That would mean the stock is trading at a 44% discount.
- Dividend Yield: A solid 3.12%. They recently bumped the quarterly payout to $0.85 per share.
Analysts are split, which is actually a good sign for a "buy the dip" scenario. Out of about 24 analysts, the average price target is $113.58. Some bulls think it’s going to $135, while the bears are worried it could tank back to $83 if their China sales (specifically the vaccine Gardasil) don't pick up.
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What to Watch Next
The volatility we saw today is likely just "pre-earnings jitters." Investors are squaring their positions before the February 3rd call.
If you're holding MRK or thinking about jumping in, keep an eye on these specific triggers:
- February 3 Earnings: If they beat the $2.07 EPS estimate, expect a jump.
- Winrevair Sales: This drug needs to prove it can be the "next Keytruda."
- M&A Rumors: Any news on the Revolution Medicines deal could cause a quick 5-10% swing in either direction.
Merck is a "boring" blue-chip until it isn't. The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 over the last year, but its recent momentum breakout suggests the market is finally starting to believe in the post-2028 plan.
Actionable Next Steps
If you are looking to play the price of merck stock today, consider these moves:
- For Income Seekers: The 3.1% dividend is safe and backed by $13 billion in free cash flow. It’s a classic "Dogs of the Dow" play for 2026.
- For Growth Investors: Watch the $112.90 mark. That's the 52-week high. If it breaks that with volume, the next stop is likely $120.
- Risk Management: Set a mental stop-loss around $104. If it drops below that, the recent "momentum breakout" might have been a head-fake.
Don't let a 2% daily drop freak you out. In the world of big pharma, the real money is made by watching the pipeline, not just the ticker.