Scottie Scheffler is currently the betting favorite to win the 2026 PGA Championship, and honestly, that shouldn't surprise a single person who has watched a leaderboard over the last two years. The guy is a machine. He’s already grabbed the 2025 PGA Championship and the Open Championship, which means he’s heading into the 108th edition of this event as the man everyone has to beat. But here is the thing: betting on a favorite at +350 or +400 in a major is usually a recipe for a light wallet.
Golf is too chaotic for those kinds of prices. One bad bounce into a bunker at Aronimink Golf Club and your three-to-one payout evaporates.
The odds to win pga championship are live at most major sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings, and they tell a story of a very top-heavy field. Behind Scheffler, you've got the usual suspects like Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau, but the real value is hidden much further down the board. We are talking about a venue in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, that hasn’t seen the PGA Championship since Gary Player hoisted the trophy back in 1962. It’s a Donald Ross masterpiece that was restored by Gil Hanse, and it’s going to reward a very specific type of golfer—not just the one with the biggest marketing budget.
The State of the 2026 PGA Championship Odds
If you look at the current futures, the "Big Three" have basically separated themselves from the pack.
- Scottie Scheffler (+380): The undisputed world number one. He’s the favorite for every major this year.
- Rory McIlroy (+550): Still chasing that elusive fifth major. His consistency is high, but his win equity in majors has been a point of massive debate for a decade.
- Bryson DeChambeau (+900): The LIV Golf standout remains a force in the majors because his game is built for "thick rough and long par 4s" setups.
It’s tempting to just click the button on Scottie and move on. He’s been winning at a clip that reminds people of Tiger in the early 2000s. But looking at the numbers from FanDuel, Jon Rahm is sitting there at +1400, and Xander Schauffele is at +2000. That’s where the conversation starts getting interesting. Schauffele proved he could close the door at a PGA Championship recently, and his ball-striking metrics are almost as consistent as Scottie’s, just without the media circus.
Aronimink is a par-70 that stretches over 7,200 yards. It’s not "long" by modern standards, but the Ross greens are notorious. They are undulating, tiered, and require precise approach play. If you aren't landing your ball in the right quadrant, you're looking at a three-putt before you've even taken your glove off.
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Why the Favorites Often Falter in May
The PGA Championship moved to May a few years back, and it changed the vibe. We aren't dealing with the "Glory's Last Shot" heat of August anymore. In Pennsylvania in mid-May, you could get a 50-degree morning with damp air that makes the ball fly like a stone.
This brings us to guys like Ludvig Aberg (+1800). He’s the "new" Rory, but arguably with a better temperament. He doesn't have the major scar tissue yet. People are betting him heavily because his driver is a literal weapon. If the rough at Aronimink is grown out to that 4-inch "PGA special" length, Aberg’s ability to find fairways at 315 yards is worth more than gold.
Then there is the LIV factor. Jon Rahm (+1200 to +1600 depending on where you shop) and Bryson are still the heavy hitters from the other side of the fence. Since they don't play a weekly PGA Tour schedule, their "current form" is harder for the casual bettor to track. This sometimes leads to slightly inflated odds. If Rahm is at +1600 on a Tuesday morning, you almost have to take it. He’s too good to be priced the same as Justin Thomas (+1800) or Viktor Hovland (+3000) right now.
Finding Value in the Mid-Tier
Let's talk about the guys who actually win you money. Most people ignore the +4000 to +8000 range, but that's where the 2026 PGA Championship could be decided.
Take a look at Robert MacIntyre (+7000). He’s been a revelation lately. He’s gritty, he putts well on difficult greens, and he doesn't care about the names on the bag next to him. Or Tommy Fleetwood at +2000. Is this finally the year he breaks through? He’s the "best player without a major" according to many experts like Jason Sobel, but eventually, that title becomes a burden.
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Players to watch in the mid-range:
- Collin Morikawa (+2200): His iron play is built for a Donald Ross course. If he's hitting his spots, he can dismantle Aronimink.
- Hideki Matsuyama (+3500): He won the Hero World Challenge recently and has a short game that can save par from a trash can.
- Brooks Koepka (+500): Wait, he's actually further down in some books, as low as +5000 in early futures. That is absurd for a guy with five majors. If you see Koepka at anything north of +3000, you're looking at a massive pricing error based on his "down" periods in non-majors.
Honestly, the odds to win pga championship right now are a snapshot in time. They will move 20% the moment someone wins a random elevated event in March.
Aronimink: The Real Star of the Show
You can't talk about the odds without talking about the grass. Aronimink is a "member's course" that was toughened up. It’s a shot-maker's track. When Sei Young Kim won the Women's PGA there in 2020, she did it with sheer ball-striking brilliance. The men's field will face a similar test.
The greens are the defense. If the PGA of America sets them to 13 on the Stimpmeter, the favorites with "shaky" short games—looking at you, Viktor Hovland—might struggle. Hovland is a phenomenal talent, but his around-the-green stats have been a roller coaster. At +3000, he’s a risky play unless he shows he can chip from tight Ross lies.
Strategy for Betting the 2026 PGA Championship
If you're going to put money down, don't just hunt for the winner. The "Top 10" and "Top 20" markets are usually where the pros live.
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Scottie Scheffler to finish in the Top 10 is currently -225. That’s a "safe" bet, but it's like picking a favorite in a horse race—high risk, low reward. Instead, look at someone like Russell Henley (+5000 for the win, but much better odds for a Top 20). Henley is a specialist on courses that require precision over power. He’s the type of guy who will be T-14 on Thursday, T-8 on Friday, and lurking on Sunday afternoon while the long hitters are hacking it out of the bushes.
Actionable Insights for Your Betting Slip:
- Avoid the "Slam" Hype: Jordan Spieth will be at +4500 to +5000 as he tries to complete the Career Grand Slam. It's a great story, but his current form doesn't suggest he can handle the consistency required for four days at Aronimink.
- Wait for the Wind: Check the weather in Newtown Square about 48 hours before tee time. If it’s going to be a "grind" week with high winds, the odds for guys like Shane Lowry (+5000) become much more attractive.
- The "LIV" Discount: Occasionally, sportsbooks keep LIV players' odds high to avoid exposure. Keep an eye on Tyrrell Hatton (+5000) or Joaquin Niemann (+4000). Both are world-class but fly under the radar because they aren't on the PGA Tour leaderboards every Sunday.
The most important thing to remember is that the PGA Championship has the strongest field in golf. There are no "easy" rounds. The 2026 edition at Aronimink is going to be a war of attrition. While the odds suggest Scottie Scheffler is the king, the history of this tournament is filled with "unexpected" champions who simply out-grinded the field.
Next Steps for Betting Research:
Start by tracking "Strokes Gained: Approach" over the next three months. This stat is the single biggest predictor of success on Donald Ross courses. If a player is gaining 1.5 strokes on the field with their irons consistently, they are a lock for your shortlist, regardless of whether they are at +2000 or +8000. Keep an eye on the injury reports for guys like Tiger Woods (+50000), who is a sentimental favorite but effectively a non-factor in the betting markets these days. Your best bet is to build a "portfolio" of three players: one favorite, one mid-tier ball-striker, and one longshot who excels in the wind.