Everyone has that one friend in their league. You know the one. They see the name Patrick Mahomes on the draft board and their brain just shorts out. They take him in the first round because, hey, it’s Mahomes. He’s the best player on the planet, right? In real-life football, absolutely. But if you’ve been tracking patrick mahomes fantasy stats over the last couple of seasons, you know the "best in the world" tag hasn't translated to the "best in fantasy" for a minute now.
It’s actually kinda wild.
We’re sitting here in early 2026, and the conversation around Mahomes is more complicated than it’s ever been. Between a massive 2025 injury and a statistical "slump" that would be a career year for anyone else, the data tells a story most casual fans are completely missing.
The 2024 Reality Check
Looking back at the 2024 season, Mahomes finished as the QB11 or QB12 depending on your scoring settings. For a guy usually drafted in the top three at his position, that’s a disaster. He put up 3,928 passing yards and 26 touchdowns against 11 interceptions.
Now, look.
Nearly 4,000 yards isn't "bad." But for fantasy owners who remember his 5,000-yard, 50-touchdown explosion in 2018, it felt like a punch to the gut. The most frustrating part for managers was the consistency—or lack thereof. For the first six games of 2024, he was basically unplayable in 10-team leagues. He had a 6:8 TD-to-INT ratio during that stretch and was averaging less than 14 fantasy points per game.
Things got better once the Chiefs traded for DeAndre Hopkins. The numbers actually suggest a massive split there. Pre-Hopkins, he was a bottom-tier starter. Post-Hopkins, he looked like the MVP again, throwing 17 touchdowns and only 3 picks over the final nine games of the regular season.
The 2025 Rollercoaster and the Injury
The 2025 season was supposed to be the "revenge tour." And for a while, it was. Mahomes came out firing, looking way more like the 2022 version of himself than the 2024 version. By Week 14, he was sitting pretty as the QB2 in fantasy, averaging 21.2 points per game.
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Then everything changed in Week 15 against the Chargers.
If you were watching that game, you saw the hit. It wasn't even one of those "wow" injuries, just a weird twist. He ended up tearing both his ACL and LCL in his left knee. Just like that, his season was over, and a lot of fantasy playoff runs went up in smoke. Before the injury, he had racked up 3,587 passing yards and 22 passing touchdowns in just 14 games. He was also on pace for a career-high in rushing yards, having already scrambled for 422 yards and 5 scores.
That rushing production is honestly the most underrated part of patrick mahomes fantasy stats. He isn't Lamar Jackson, but when the Chiefs' receivers struggle to get open (which happened a lot in '24 and early '25), Mahomes just takes off.
Breaking Down the Career Arc
If we step back and look at the "Fantasy Points Per Game" (FPPG) over the years, you can see the shift in how the Chiefs play:
- 2018: 26.1 FPPG (The Peak)
- 2020: 25.0 FPPG
- 2022: 25.2 FPPG
- 2023: 18.4 FPPG (The "Yikes" Year)
- 2024: 18.4 FPPG
- 2025: 21.2 FPPG (Pre-injury bounce back)
The dip in 2023 and 2024 wasn't just Mahomes "getting worse." It was the personnel. Losing Tyreek Hill eventually caught up to the scheme. They became a dink-and-dunk offense. In 2024, Mahomes had a career-low 6.8 yards per attempt. That’s basically check-down city. For fantasy, that kills your ceiling. You need the 50-yard bombs to Mecole Hardman or Xavier Worthy to get those massive 30-point weeks.
Efficiency vs. Volume
A lot of people think Mahomes is a "high volume" guy. He is, but the Chiefs' defense has actually become so good that he doesn't have to throw 50 times a game anymore. Steve Spagnuolo’s unit is a top-5 defense now.
This is a classic "good for the Chiefs, bad for fantasy" situation.
When the defense holds the opponent to 13 points, Andy Reid is perfectly happy running Isiah Pacheco into the line 25 times to kill the clock. We saw this play out in the red zone efficiency stats too. In 2024, Mahomes was actually 4th in "Expected Points" in the red zone, but he underperformed that metric. Basically, the opportunities were there, but they were settling for field goals or Pacheco was vulturing the scores.
What This Means for 2026
So, where does that leave us?
As of mid-January 2026, Mahomes has already had his surgery. He’s telling reporters like Jesse Newell and Ian Rapoport that he’s "hitting all the checkpoints" and targeting a Week 1 return. But let's be real. A dual ACL/LCL tear at age 30 is no joke. Even if he’s back on the field, is he going to be scrambling for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns?
Probably not.
If you're looking at patrick mahomes fantasy stats for your 2026 draft, you have to bake in a "mobility tax." Without the rushing floor, he has to be nearly perfect as a pocket passer to finish as a top-5 QB. He needs Xavier Worthy to take that massive Year 3 leap and Travis Kelce (who is basically a fossil in football years at this point) to keep find the soft spots in zone coverage.
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Actionable Insights for Fantasy Managers
- Stop Drafting Him on Name Recognition: In 1-QB leagues, Mahomes shouldn't be touched before the 5th or 6th round in 2026. The injury risk combined with the lower passing volume makes him a "floor" play, not a "ceiling" play.
- The Mobility Factor: Watch the preseason reports on his "escape rate." If he isn't moving well in the pocket, his fantasy value drops significantly because he won't be able to extend plays for those signature "off-platform" throws.
- Stacking is Essential: If you do draft Mahomes, you almost have to stack him with Worthy or Rashee Rice. You’re betting on the Chiefs' passing volume returning to 2022 levels, and if that happens, those receivers will be the primary beneficiaries.
- Monitor the Backup: Keep an eye on the Chiefs' QB room. If his rehab stalls, Gardner Minshew (or whoever they bring in) becomes a very interesting "superflex" target because the system itself is still elite.
The bottom line is that the "Unicorn" era of Mahomes where he was a guaranteed 25 points a week is likely over. He’s now a very good, high-floor starter who requires specific game scripts to truly explode.
Check the injury reports religiously leading up to August. If he’s not 100% by training camp, let someone else in your league chase the name while you grab a younger, healthier option with more rushing upside.