The divisional round is finally here. Honestly, the board looks like a chaotic mess of "I told you so" and "how did that happen?" If you had the Seattle Seahawks as the betting favorite back in August, you’re either a genius or a liar. Probably a liar.
Back in the preseason, Seattle was sitting at a massive +6000. Now? They are the king of the mountain. According to the latest movement at major sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel, the odds on super bowl 60 have consolidated around the Seahawks at +270. They clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC after a dominant regular season finale against the 49ers, and suddenly, everyone wants a piece of the Sam Darnold redemption tour.
But betting on the favorite isn't always the smart play.
The Los Angeles Rams are breathing down their necks at +320. Matthew Stafford just keeps finding ways to survive, evidenced by that 34-31 nail-biter against the Panthers. People keep waiting for the Rams to age out, but here they are, second on the board.
The AFC’s Disrespect Problem
It is wild to see the Denver Broncos sitting as the No. 1 seed in the AFC while holding only the fifth-best odds at +700. Sean Payton has this team humming, yet the oddsmakers seem more enamored with the New England Patriots (+600) and the Buffalo Bills (+650).
The Patriots are a fascinating case. Mike Vrabel has basically turned Drake Maye into an MVP candidate in just his second year. The kid threw for over 4,300 yards this season. That’s why you’re seeing New England as the "sharp" favorite in the AFC, even though they have to navigate a tricky path through a surging Houston Texans team.
Speaking of Houston, they are the definition of a "hot hand." C.J. Stroud has them on a massive win streak, and their odds have plummeted from longshot status to +850. If you’re looking for value, that’s where the eyes are shifting.
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Breaking Down the Top Contenders
Let’s look at the actual numbers as of January 17, 2026.
Seattle Seahawks (+270)
They have the bye. They have the home field. Sam Darnold has been mostly elite, which feels weird to type. The only concern is the interior offensive line, but when your defense is this dominant, it masks a lot of smells.
Los Angeles Rams (+320)
They face the Chicago Bears this weekend. The Bears are actually 4.5-point underdogs at home, which is disrespectful considering how they closed the season. The Rams have a balanced attack, but can they win three straight on the road? The market thinks so.
New England Patriots (+600)
The "Vrabel Effect" is real. Stefon Diggs is playing like a No. 1 receiver again. They are hosting Houston this Sunday, and the betting volume on the Pats is heavy.
Buffalo Bills (+650)
Josh Allen is still Josh Allen. They barely escaped Jacksonville with a 27-24 win, and now they have to go into the thin air of Denver. The Bills moved from +1000 to +650 after that Wild Card win.
Why the Underdogs Might Actually Rule
There is a trend most people are ignoring. The underdog has won the Super Bowl three years in a row. Not just covered—won outright.
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Last year, the Eagles were favorites over the Chiefs, and we saw how that ended. In 2024, the 49ers were favored by 2, and the Chiefs took them down. If you follow the money, the odds on super bowl winners lately suggest that the "sure thing" at the top of the board is a trap.
The San Francisco 49ers are at +2000 right now. They just ended the Eagles' repeat hopes in the Wild Card round. Yes, they’re the No. 6 seed. Yes, George Kittle is out for the season. But writing off Kyle Shanahan at 20-to-1 feels like a mistake. They have to play Seattle in the "Loudest House" this Saturday, and the line is shifting.
Betting Misconceptions
Most casual bettors see a +270 and think "easy money."
It isn’t.
That number implies about a 27% chance of winning. That means there's a 73% chance someone else lifts the trophy. When you look at the AFC, the parity is even worse. The gap between the Patriots (+600) and the Texans (+850) is razor-thin in reality, even if the odds look wider.
People also love the "MVP Curse." Patrick Mahomes was the last guy to win the MVP and the Super Bowl in the same year back in the 2022-23 season. Before him, it hadn't happened since 1999. If Drake Maye or Sam Darnold wins the MVP, history says their Super Bowl chances actually take a hit. It’s a weird, superstitious stat, but it’s one that professional bettors monitor.
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Actionable Insights for the Divisional Round
If you're looking to place a bet this weekend or just want to understand how the market is moving, keep these things in mind:
- Watch the Broncos/Bills Line: Denver is the No. 1 seed but only a slight favorite at home. If that line moves toward Buffalo, it means the big money doesn't believe in Bo Nix yet.
- The Chicago Bounce: The Bears were +8000 mid-game against Green Bay and are now +1600. That’s a massive swing. If they beat the Rams, they could easily jump into the top 4.
- Injury Reports Matter More Now: The 49ers are banged up, and the Patriots are dealing with O-line injuries. Don't just look at the names; look at who is actually blocking for those names.
- The "Under" Trend: Five of the last seven Super Bowls have gone UNDER the point total. In these high-stakes playoff games, defenses tend to tighten up.
The Seahawks might be the favorites today, but the NFL has a funny way of ruining a good narrative by Sunday night. Betting on the odds on super bowl is about finding where the public is wrong, and right now, the public is very high on Seattle.
Keep an eye on the Houston vs. New England matchup. That game likely decides the AFC representative. If Houston pulls the upset, the entire betting board will flip by Monday morning.
Stick to the data, ignore the hype around the "stars," and remember that in the playoffs, the No. 1 seed is rarely as safe as the odds suggest.
Next Steps for You
Check the injury report for the Broncos' defensive line before the Saturday afternoon kickoff. If Ed Oliver remains limited, the Bills' rushing attack becomes the most important factor in that game. You should also compare the moneyline at different books for the Bears-Rams game; the variance between +1400 and +1600 on Chicago is where the real value hides.