Everything changes when the playoffs hit the second weekend. You’ve probably noticed the vibe shift already. The Wild Card chaos is over, and now we’re left with the "big boys" and a couple of resilient stragglers who just won't go away. If you’ve been looking at the latest lines in the NFL, the oddsmakers aren't just guessing—they’re reacting to a landscape where the Buffalo Bills are somehow road favorites in Denver and the Seattle Seahawks are being treated like an unstoppable juggernaut.
It’s weird. Honestly, it’s a bit jarring to see a No. 1 seed like the Broncos opening as an underdog at home. But that’s the 2026 postseason for you. Injuries are piling up, rest is becoming a weapon, and the betting market is moving faster than a Tyreek Hill post route.
The Denver Disrespect and the Bills Mafia Surge
Let’s talk about that Saturday afternoon kickoff. The Buffalo Bills at the Denver Broncos. Most people see Denver as the top seed and assume they should be favored by at least a field goal. Nope. The latest lines in the NFL have Buffalo as a -1.5 favorite on the road.
Why?
It basically comes down to momentum and the "Josh Allen factor." Buffalo just dismantled Jacksonville, while Denver was sitting on their couches. Sometimes the "bye week rust" is a real thing, and the sharps clearly think Denver’s Bo Nix might struggle in his first-ever playoff start against a Buffalo defense that hasn't allowed a fourth-quarter lead change in months.
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However, there’s a catch. Buffalo is hurting. They lost Josh Palmer and Gabe Davis to season-ending injuries. They’re basically rolling out Khalil Shakir and Brandin Cooks as their primary threats. If Patrick Surtain II locks down one side of the field, Josh Allen might have to do it all with his legs.
The NFC West War: Seahawks vs. 49ers
Saturday night is a straight-up grudge match. The Seattle Seahawks are currently -7.5 favorites over the San Francisco 49ers. That is a massive spread for a divisional playoff game between two teams that know each other's favorite colors and breakfast orders.
But look at the context:
- Seattle won 13-3 in the regular-season finale.
- The 49ers lost George Kittle to a torn Achilles last week.
- Brock Purdy is playing with a decimated receiving corps.
Seattle at Lumen Field is a nightmare. They are currently the Super Bowl favorites at +270, and the betting public is hammers them. If you’re looking for a "trap" line, this might be it. Kyle Shanahan has covered a +7 spread in 11 of his 13 career playoff games. You’ve gotta wonder if 7.5 is just a bridge too far for a divisional rival, even with the Kittle injury.
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Sunday’s "Cardiac Kids" and the New England Wall
Sunday is when things get really interesting for the latest lines in the NFL. We start in Foxborough. The New England Patriots are -3 favorites against the Houston Texans. This line has been bouncing between 3 and 3.5 all week.
New England’s defense is legit. They just held the Chargers to 3 points. But the Texans are coming in after a 30-6 thumping of the Steelers. The big "if" here is the concussion protocol. If Nico Collins can’t go for Houston, or if Christian Gonzalez stays sidelined for the Pats, this line could swing a full point by kickoff.
The Frozen Tundra... in Chicago?
The final game of the weekend features the Los Angeles Rams traveling to Soldier Field. The Rams are 3.5-point road favorites. This is where history gets funky.
In NFL playoff history, home underdogs of +3.5 or more are 23-2 at covering when the temperature is under 15 degrees. Chicago in mid-January? It’s going to be freezing. The Bears are the "Cardiac Kids" of 2025-2026, having won a record seven games this year after trailing in the final two minutes.
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Matthew Stafford is playing like an MVP, but the Rams' defense has surrendered five game-winning drives this season. If Caleb Williams keeps it close, the Chicago crowd and the sub-zero temps might turn that -3.5 line into a losing ticket for L.A. bettors.
How to Read These Lines Without Losing Your Mind
When you're staring at the latest lines in the NFL, don't just look at the numbers. Look at the "why."
- Check the Weather: Especially for that Rams/Bears game. If the wind picks up off Lake Michigan, that 48.5 total is going to tank.
- Monitor the Protocol: Nico Collins and Christian Gonzalez are the keys to the Pats/Texans spread. If they’re out, the "under" becomes much more attractive.
- The "Home Dog" Theory: Denver as a home underdog is rare. Historically, No. 1 seeds playing as dogs are a high-value play because the market overcorrects for recent performance (like Buffalo’s big win).
The Super Bowl odds are also shifting. Seattle is at the top (+270), followed by the Rams (+320) and the Patriots (+600). But if Buffalo wins in Denver, expect them to jump into that top three immediately.
To stay ahead of the curve, track the movement of the Bills line specifically. If it moves to -2.5, it means the big money is terrified of Bo Nix’s inexperience. If it swings back to Denver -1, the "bye week advantage" is winning the narrative. Keep an eye on the Friday injury reports before placing any final wagers on the divisional round.