New Jersey has a reputation for being a "boring" blue state where the results are basically written in stone before anyone even walks into a voting booth. Well, the nj election results 2024 actually told a much weirder, more complicated story than the talking heads on TV would have you believe.
Honestly, if you just looked at the top-line "Harris won," you’re missing the earthquake happening underneath the surface. The margins shifted. The "blue wall" in the Garden State didn't crumble, but it's definitely showing some cracks that should make local politicians a little nervous.
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The Top of the Ticket: A Shifting Margin
Let’s get the big numbers out of the way. Kamala Harris took New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes. No surprise there. She pulled in roughly 2,220,713 votes (51.97%) compared to Donald Trump’s 1,968,215 (46.06%).
On paper, a win is a win. But look closer.
In 2020, Joe Biden won New Jersey by about 16 points. In 2024, Harris won it by roughly 6 points. That is a massive 10-point swing toward the GOP in a state that hasn't gone red for a president since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Trump actually received more raw votes in NJ this time around than Ronald Reagan did in his 1984 landslide. Think about that for a second.
The "why" is where it gets interesting. Turnout in Democratic strongholds like Essex and Hudson counties was noticeably lower than in 2020. Meanwhile, Trump saw a surge in support in places you might not expect—including a significant jump in Passaic County and among Hispanic voters in urban centers.
The Andy Kim Ascendance
While the presidential race got tighter, the U.S. Senate race felt like a changing of the guard. Andy Kim defeated Republican Curtis Bashaw to take the seat long held by Bob Menendez.
Kim’s victory (roughly 53.6% to 44%) was significant not just because he's the first Korean-American in the Senate, but because of how he got there. He basically blew up the "county line" system—that weird New Jersey ballot quirk that gave party favorites an unfair advantage—during the primary.
You've gotta respect the hustle. Kim ran as a "Mr. Clean" alternative to the corruption scandals that have plagued Jersey politics for years. Bashaw, a developer from Cape May, ran a decent moderate campaign, but it’s tough to beat a guy who literally became a viral hero for cleaning up the Capitol floor after the January 6th riot.
Breaking Down the House Races
The U.S. House seats mostly stayed in the hands of the incumbents, but there were some nail-biters.
- District 7: This was the one everyone was watching. Republican Tom Kean Jr. held off a stiff challenge from Sue Altman. This district is a mix of wealthy suburbs and more rural areas, and it remains the state's most competitive battleground.
- District 3: With Andy Kim moving up to the Senate, Herb Conaway kept this seat blue, defeating Rajesh Mohan.
- District 9: Following the passing of long-time Rep. Bill Pascrell, Nellie Pou stepped in and secured the win, though the margin was tighter than many expected in this North Jersey corridor.
The rest of the incumbents—Donald Norcross, Jeff Van Drew (the state’s most prominent Trump supporter), Chris Smith, Josh Gottheimer, Frank Pallone, Rob Menendez Jr., Mikie Sherrill, and Bonnie Watson Coleman—all kept their seats.
Why the "Red Shift" Happened
If you talk to voters in places like Atlantic County or even parts of Bergen, they aren't necessarily becoming hardcore MAGA fans. They’re mostly just... annoyed.
The cost of living in Jersey is brutal. Property taxes are a nightmare, and the "affordability" talk from Trenton doesn't always feel real when you're at the grocery store. Trump’s message on the economy resonated in places where people feel like they’re working twice as hard to stay in the same place.
Also, we can't ignore the "uncommitted" movement during the primaries. A lot of voters were frustrated with the administration's foreign policy, and while many came back to the fold for the general, some stayed home. In a state where turnout dropped by about 7% compared to 2020, those "stay-at-homes" changed the math.
What Happens Next?
The nj election results 2024 are a loud wake-up call for the 2025 gubernatorial race.
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With Phil Murphy termed out, the field is wide open. Democrats can't just assume "blue jersey" will show up for them anymore. They’re going to have to actually compete in the suburbs and prove they can lower the "exit tax" vibe of the state.
On the flip side, Republicans have a roadmap. If they can replicate Trump’s gains in urban and minority communities while keeping the base fired up, the 2025 race for Governor could be the closest we've seen in a generation.
Actionable Insights for NJ Residents
- Verify Your Registration: If you sat this one out, check your status on the NJ Division of Elections website. Don't wait until 2025.
- Watch the "Line" Changes: Andy Kim’s lawsuit changed how ballots look. Pay attention to the new layouts in future elections; your favorite candidate might not be in the "easy" spot anymore.
- Local Matters: While the big seats get the headlines, your school board and municipal council races often have more impact on your property taxes than the President does.
The 2024 cycle proved that New Jersey isn't a monolith. It’s a scrappy, frustrated, and deeply divided state that’s starting to vote like a purple one. Keep an eye on those municipal-level shifts—that's where the next big story is hiding.