Fantasy football isn't what it used to be. Remember when you could just wait until the tenth round, grab a guy like Kirk Cousins, and call it a day? Yeah, those days are dead. If you're looking at nfl quarterback rankings fantasy lists for the 2026 season, you've probably noticed something wild: the "elite" tier is getting smaller, yet the points are coming from weirder places.
Honestly, the 2025 season was a total mess for some of the biggest names. Patrick Mahomes had that brutal ACL/LCL injury that threw everything into a tailspin. Lamar Jackson dealt with nagging issues and a coaching carousel. Meanwhile, kids like Drake Maye and Caleb Williams basically set the world on fire. If you aren't adapting, you're losing.
The Josh Allen Problem (And Why He's Still QB1)
Let's just get this out of the way. Josh Allen is a cheat code. He finished as the top scorer again in 2025, marking six straight years of finishing either first or second. That is absurd. In a world where every other QB seems to have a "down year," Allen just keeps running people over in the red zone.
Most experts, including the folks over at Draft Sharks and FantasyPros, have him as the undisputed #1 for 2026. The Bills' roster changes don't even seem to matter anymore. Whether he's throwing to a superstar or a guy they found at a bus stop, Allen's rushing floor—roughly 500 yards and 10+ touchdowns a year—makes him the safest bet in the draft.
But here's the kicker: his ADP (Average Draft Position) is likely going to be in the early second or late third round. Is it worth it?
If you're in a 4-point passing TD league, maybe. In 6-point leagues? The gap between him and the next tier starts to shrink. You've gotta decide if you'd rather have Allen or a superstar wide receiver like Justin Jefferson. Most people get lured into the "Value Over Replacement" trap and wait too long. Don't be that person.
The 2026 Tier Breakdown: From Elites to "Please Don't Get Benched"
The landscape has shifted. We're seeing a massive rise in "sophomore" and "junior" year breakouts that are actually sustainable.
The Elite Dual-Threats
- Josh Allen (Bills): The king. No notes.
- Drake Maye (Patriots): This might feel high, but did you see his 2025? He was the QB2. Under Josh McDaniels, the Patriots actually look like a real NFL offense. Maye’s ability to extend plays is prime-era Big Ben but with more speed.
- Jayden Daniels (Commanders): He had a "season from hell" with injuries in 2025, but the talent is undeniable. If the Commanders use that $76M in cap space to fix the O-line, Daniels is a top-3 lock.
- Lamar Jackson (Ravens): A bit of a bounce-back candidate. People are down on him because of the 2025 injuries, which is exactly why you should draft him. The upside is still 1,000 rushing yards.
The Passing Volume Kings
Then you've got the guys who don't run much but throw the ball 600 times a year.
Joe Burrow is the poster child here. If Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins stay healthy, Burrow's floor is 4,500 yards. The injury risk is the only thing keeping him out of the top 3.
Dak Prescott is another one. He’s basically a boring ATM that spits out 20 points every Sunday. He won't win you a week with a 40-point explosion very often, but he won't lose it for you either.
The "New Guard" Breakouts
Caleb Williams finally found his rhythm in Ben Johnson’s system in Chicago. After a shaky rookie start, his 2025 showed he can handle the blitz and make the "off-platform" throws everyone hyped up. He’s a surefire top-10 fantasy QB for 2026.
And don't sleep on Bo Nix. Denver isn't flashy, but Nix outscored Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert on a per-game basis for a good chunk of last year. He’s the ultimate "I waited until the 11th round" target.
Why the "Wait on a QB" Strategy is Kinda Risky Now
For years, the smart play was waiting. "Late-round QB" was the mantra. But look at the 2025 stats—the gap between the QB1 (Allen) and the QB12 (often someone like Jared Goff or Jordan Love) was nearly 100 points.
That’s six points a week.
In a tight fantasy matchup, six points is the difference between a win and a mid-week existential crisis. The 2026 rookie class, featuring guys like Cade Klubnik and Arch Manning (if he declares), might add some depth, but they aren't going to be reliable starters from Day 1. You're better off grabbing a Tier 1 or Tier 2 guy and not worrying about the waiver wire scrap heap.
👉 See also: Jorge Alcala Red Sox: Why the Fireballer Experiment Failed
The Mahomes ACL Uncertainty
Everyone is asking: "What do I do with Patrick Mahomes?"
He’s recovering from a torn ACL and LCL. In the past, this was a death sentence for a season. In 2026? Modern medicine is basically sorcery.
Mahomes will likely be ready for Week 1, but will he scramble? Probably not. If you take away Mahomes' 300-400 rushing yards, he becomes a "pocket passer" who relies entirely on his arm. While his arm is the best in the world, it limits his fantasy ceiling. If his ADP drops to the 6th or 7th round, he’s a steal. If people still draft him in the 3rd based on the name? Let someone else take that risk.
NFL Quarterback Rankings Fantasy: The "Deep Sleepers"
If you're in a 2-QB league or a Superflex, you need to know these names:
- Jaxson Dart: The New York Giants might actually have something here. If they fix the receiver room, Dart has the rushing upside to be a top-12 guy.
- Justin Herbert: 2025 was "Worst Case Ontario" for the Chargers. Injuries everywhere. A healthy Herbert is a top-5 talent being drafted like a top-15 one.
- Trevor Lawrence: He finished 2025 on a tear after the Jakobi Meyers trade. Jacksonville is finally clicking.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Don't draft based on last year's total points. That's a rookie move.
Total points are a lie because they don't account for games missed. Always look at Points Per Game (PPG).
For example, Brock Purdy missed time in 2025 but his PPG was actually higher than several guys ranked ahead of him. If he’s healthy and has his weapons (minus a potentially aging George Kittle), he’s a value play.
Also, watch the coaching changes. A "Lamar Jackson" type player in a Greg Roman offense is a different animal than Lamar in a pass-heavy scheme. If the Ravens hire a defensive-minded coach who wants to "establish the run" with a 30-year-old Derrick Henry, Lamar's value takes a hit.
Expert Insights for Your Draft Day
- Check the Weather: It sounds stupid, but look at the late-season schedules. If your QB has three road games in December in Buffalo, Cleveland, and Chicago, you're going to have a bad time.
- Stacking is Real: If you draft Joe Burrow, you better try to get Ja'Marr Chase. The "stack" is the most effective way to climb the standings in large-field tournaments.
- Rushing is King: A quarterback rushing yard is worth 0.1 points. A passing yard is worth 0.04 points. A QB who runs for 50 yards is the same as a QB who throws for 125 yards. Do the math.
The 2026 Strategy Verdict
Basically, the 2026 season is going to be defined by the "Young Guns" versus the "Old Guard."
If you want safety, you go with Allen or Burrow. If you want to win your league by a landslide, you take the risk on Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye. The middle ground—taking someone like Matthew Stafford (who's 38) or Aaron Rodgers (who's basically a fossil at this point)—is where fantasy teams go to die.
Stop looking for "solid." Start looking for "explosive."
Your Next Steps
- Sync your league: Use a tool like Draft Sharks or FantasyPros to sync your specific scoring settings. 4-point vs 6-point passing TDs changes everything.
- Monitor the Mahomes rehab: If he’s seen running in training camp, his value skyrockets.
- Target the Year 3 Leap: Keep a very close eye on Caleb Williams. Year 3 is traditionally when elite QBs go from "good" to "MVP-level" in fantasy.
Drafting a quarterback isn't just about picking the best player; it's about picking the right situation. In 2026, the situation is more volatile than ever. Stay flexible, watch the preseason snaps, and don't be afraid to reach for a guy who has 800-yard rushing potential.