Look, the NFL in 2025 has been a total fever dream. If you told me back in August that the Denver Broncos would be sitting at 8-2 and basically bullying the AFC West, I’d have asked to see your medical records. But here we are. Week 11 is staring us in the face, and the script has been flipped so many times it's basically a circle.
People are still obsessed with the "brand name" teams. You’ve got the national media talking about the Chiefs’ pedigree or the 49ers’ roster talent, but the actual wins are coming from elsewhere. Honestly, it's kinda refreshing. We’re seeing a shift where young quarterbacks like Bo Nix and Drake Maye aren't just "showing flashes"—they're actually closing out games against veterans.
Let's break down these nfl predictions for week 11 before the lines move any further.
The Mile High Statement: Chiefs at Broncos
This is the one. The game everyone is circling.
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a bye at 5-4, which feels weirdly mediocre for them. Meanwhile, Denver is 8-2 and hasn't looked this disciplined since the Peyton Manning era. The big narrative is whether Patrick Mahomes can "flip the switch" like he usually does in November. But have you seen this Denver defense? They’re leading the league in several advanced metrics, and Bo Nix is playing like a guy who’s been in the league for ten years, not ten games.
Most experts are taking the Chiefs because, well, they're the Chiefs. But my money is on the Broncos. They’re at home. The altitude is real. And honestly, the Chiefs' offense has been stagnant. If Denver can keep Travis Kelce contained—which is easier said than done, I know—they win this 22-19. It won't be pretty. It'll be a physical, grinding game that makes you want to go take a nap afterward.
The NFC West Civil War: Seahawks at Rams
Seahawks. Rams. SoFi Stadium.
If you like points, this is your game. Seattle is sitting at 7-2, led by a Sam Darnold who has somehow found his soul in the Pacific Northwest. He’s throwing to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is currently leading the NFL in receiving yards. It’s a match made in heaven, or at least in a very high-octane offensive meeting room.
But don't sleep on Matthew Stafford. The Rams are also 7-2 and he’s throwing for nearly 300 yards a game. This game is basically a coin flip, but the Rams have this weird "13 personnel" package (three tight ends) that Sean McVay is using to absolutely shred defenses. It’s heavy, it’s confusing, and it makes it impossible for Seattle to stay in their nickel defense.
Key Matchup Stats to Watch
- Seahawks' Passing Offense: 1st in the league (312 ypg)
- Rams' Red Zone Efficiency: 4th in the league (68% TD rate)
- The Spread: Rams -3.5 (this feels a bit high, honestly)
I’m taking the Rams in a squeaker, maybe 21-19. Seattle’s defense is good, but Stafford at home in a divisional game is a different beast.
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The "How Are They Still Here?" Bowl: Lions at Eagles
This is a heavyweight fight on Sunday Night Football.
Detroit is 6-3 and Dan Campbell has taken back the play-calling duties. The result? They just hung 44 points on their last opponent. When the Lions run the ball with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, they are almost impossible to stop. It’s like watching a snowplow in slow motion.
Then you have the Eagles. They’re 7-2 and playing that "ugly" style of football that fans hate but coaches love. They won their last game 10-7. TEN TO SEVEN. That’s Big Ten football from the 1950s. But it works for them. Saquon Barkley is still a human highlight reel, and that defense is finally clicking.
Philadelphia wins this because they’re at home and their defense is built to stop the run. If you force Jared Goff to throw 45 times, he’s going to make a mistake. Philly 16, Detroit 9. Expect a lot of punting.
Desperation in the AFC North: Bengals at Steelers
Joe Burrow is back at practice, which is the only reason Cincinnati fans haven't jumped into the Ohio River yet. They’re struggling, but the talent is there. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is 5-4 and dealing with a massive blow: Aaron Rodgers might be out with a wrist injury.
If Mason Rudolph has to start for the Steelers, this game changes completely.
The Bengals have no defense. Seriously, you could probably put up 20 points against them with a high school squad. But if the Steelers can't exploit that through the air, it becomes a ground game. And Cincy is desperate. Like, "if we lose this, our season is over" desperate. I’m leaning toward the Steelers because Mike Tomlin always finds a way to win these divisional mud-fights, but it wouldn't surprise me if Burrow pulls a rabbit out of a hat.
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Let's go Steelers 34, Bengals 12. Pittsburgh’s defense is just too opportunistic for a hobbled Cincy offense.
The Rest of the Slate: Quick Hits
- Packers at Giants: The Giants are a mess. They just fired Brian Daboll (or are about to, depending on which rumor you believe). Green Bay is 5-3-1 and needs this to stay in the hunt. Packers 27, Giants 20.
- Bears at Vikings: Caleb Williams vs. the Brian Flores blitz machine. This is going to be a long day for the rookie. Vikings 26, Bears 24. It’ll be closer than it should be because Chicago has a weird way of hanging around.
- Texans at Titans: Houston is 4-5 and getting C.J. Stroud back. Tennessee is... well, they’re 3-14 for a reason. Texans 16, Titans 13.
Strategy for Your Week 11 Picks
If you're looking at the betting lines or just trying to win your office pool, stop picking the "better" team and start picking the better matchup.
For example, don't just pick the Bills because they have Josh Allen. They’re playing Tampa Bay, and the Bucs' defense is actually designed to stop mobile QBs. The Bills just got smoked by the Dolphins, and their confidence looks shaky. Tampa 25, Buffalo 24 is my "upset of the week."
Also, watch the injury reports for the Commanders. They’re heading to Madrid to play the Dolphins (yes, Madrid). If Jayden Daniels is still limited and their defensive line is missing starters, Tua is going to have a field day in Spain. Dolphins 16, Commanders 13.
Actionable Takeaways for Week 11
- Trust the Home Dogs: Denver and Jacksonville are both underdogs at home this week. Both have the coaching to cover or win outright.
- Fade the Over: With so many backup QBs likely starting (Giants, Steelers, Texans), the "Under" is looking very attractive in several games.
- Watch the Weather: Late November in Buffalo and Pittsburgh can get nasty. Check the wind speeds before you lock in any passing-heavy bets.
The playoff picture is starting to solidify, but Week 11 is where the pretenders usually fall off the cliff. Don't be the person who loses their pool because they thought "the Chiefs always win." In 2025, the only thing that's certain is that nothing is certain.