Golf betting is a grind. You spend all week looking at strokes gained data only for some guy with a flat putter to catch fire on Sunday and ruin your card. This week, the PGA Tour is at Waialae Country Club for the 2026 Sony Open, and the board looks a little different than it did a few years ago.
We’re officially in the post-Sentry world, but without the usual Maui opener due to those severe drought cancellations, everyone is arriving at the Sony Open with a little more rust than usual. It’s weird. Usually, we have at least four days of competitive data from Kapalua to lean on. This year? We're flying blind into the coastal winds of Oahu.
If you’re looking at pga odds to win this week, you’ll see Russell Henley sitting at the top of the list at +1100. It makes sense. He’s basically the king of this course, having won here before and coming off a massive T-2 finish in last year’s FedExCup standings. But betting the favorite at 11-to-1 in a 144-man field is a bold move, especially with the way the wind is whipping off the Pacific right now.
Why the Favorites Might Be a Trap
Let’s be honest about Ben Griffin (+1400) and J.J. Spaun (+1800). They are playing incredible golf. Spaun is a reigning U.S. Open champion now—which still feels a bit surreal to say out loud—and Griffin is a ball-striking machine. But Waialae isn't a "bomb and gouge" track. It’s a par 70 that measures just over 7,044 yards.
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You don't need to hit it 330 yards here. You need to hit fairways.
The rough this year is surprisingly thick for a resort-adjacent course. If you’re off the short grass, controlling your spin into these firm greens is a nightmare. This is why guys like Hideki Matsuyama (+2000) and Collin Morikawa (+2000) are always in the mix. They are precision instruments. Matsuyama specifically has that 2022 win in the back of his mind, and his iron play is looking sharp according to the early range reports.
Then you have Robert MacIntyre at +2000. The Scotsman is a fan favorite for a reason, but his game is built on grit. In Hawaii, grit sometimes loses to a guy who can just make twenty-five birdies in four days.
The Mid-Tier Value Nobody is Taking
I’ve been staring at Harry Hall at +3500 all morning.
Hall is one of those players who just gets it done on Thursday. Last year, he opened with a 64 here. If you aren't ready to pull the trigger on his outright pga odds to win this week, look at the First Round Leader market. He’s listed around +5500 to lead after 18 holes. That’s a massive gap.
There's also Sahith Theegala. He’s way down the board at +9000. Why? Because 2025 was a disaster for him. Injuries basically sidelined his rise, and he’s been trying to find his swing for months. But the talent didn’t just vanish. He’s 28, he’s healthy now, and he’s paired with Seamus Power and Kristoffer Reitan for the first two rounds. That’s a comfortable group for a guy trying to regain his confidence.
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Is he going to win? Maybe not. But at +9000, he’s a much better "lottery ticket" than some of the Korn Ferry graduates who are seeing their first real PGA action this week.
Understanding the Waialae "Type"
If you want to win money this week, stop looking at driving distance. Seriously. Look at:
- Strokes Gained: Approach (specifically from 125-150 yards)
- Birdie or Better Percentage
- Performance on Bermuda grass greens
Waialae is a positional golf course. It’s about angles. If you’re on the wrong side of the fairway, even if you’re in the short stuff, you’re blocked out by palm trees. It’s frustrating. It’s tactical. It’s why veterans like Adam Scott (+4000) and Keegan Bradley (+2200) tend to hang around the leaderboard even when they aren't playing their "A" game.
And don't sleep on Nick Taylor at +4500. He’s the defending champ. People always forget the defending champ because "it’s hard to repeat," but Taylor’s playoff win here last year was clinical. He’s the 11th international player to win this event, and he knows exactly how to flight the ball under the wind.
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Real Talk on the Betting Board
Right now, the DraftKings and FanDuel boards are seeing a lot of action on Si Woo Kim (+2000). He’s a former winner here too (2023). When Si Woo is "on," he’s a top-five player in the world. When he’s "off," he might shoot an 80 and break a putter. That’s the risk you take.
| Player | Current Odds | My Take |
|---|---|---|
| Russell Henley | +1100 | Too short for me, but the safest play. |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2000 | The best value among the elite names. |
| Harry Hall | +3500 | My favorite mid-tier sleeper. |
| Sahith Theegala | +9000 | The ultimate "he’s back" longshot. |
| Nick Taylor | +4500 | Respect the defending champ. |
If you’re building a card, I’d suggest splitting your units. Put a little on a favorite like Henley or Matsuyama, but save room for the guys like Corey Conners (+3000) or even Maverick McNealy (+2500). Conners is a ball-striking god who usually struggles with the putter, but these Bermuda greens are slower than what they’ll see at the Masters, which helps the "bad" putters stay competitive.
How to Handle Your Units
Don't chase the big payouts. Golf is high-variance. If you’re betting the pga odds to win this week, focus on the Top 20 or Top 40 markets for the longshots.
For example, taking Aaron Rai at +4500 to win is fun. Taking him to finish in the Top 20 is a much smarter business decision. Rai is incredibly accurate, which fits this course perfectly. He might not have the "hero" shots to win on Sunday, but he’s almost certainly going to be in the top 20 by the time the sun sets in Honolulu.
The weather is the final factor. Friday afternoon is supposed to be the windiest window. If you see a guy in the morning wave on Thursday shoot a 65, don't automatically hammer his live odds. Wait to see how the afternoon wave handles the gusts.
To make the most of this week’s tournament, start by checking the weather splits for the Thursday/Friday rounds before placing any more head-to-head tournament matchups. Look for players in the early-late rotation who might avoid the heaviest gusts forecasted for Friday afternoon. After that, focus your remaining budget on the "Top 10" or "Top 20" finish markets for consistent ball-strikers like Corey Conners or Aaron Rai to hedge against the volatility of the outright winner market.