If you haven't been watching the 2025-26 NBA season closely, you might look at a game between the New Orleans Pelicans - Indiana Pacers and see two teams struggling at the bottom of the standings. Honestly, on paper, it looks rough. Both teams are sitting on fewer than 10 wins as we hit mid-January. But if you’re a real hoops junkie or someone looking for betting value, there is so much more happening under the surface of this cross-conference rivalry than the win-loss column suggests.
The Pelicans and Pacers aren't just losing; they are fighting through a gauntlet of injuries and identity crises that make their head-to-head meetings weirdly competitive.
What Really Happened in the Last Pelicans - Pacers Game?
Back on December 20, 2025, New Orleans handled business at the Smoothie King Center with a 128-109 win. Zion Williamson was basically a one-man wrecking crew, dropping 29 points on 9-of-14 shooting. It was one of those nights where the Pacers simply had no answer for his gravity in the paint. Saddiq Bey, who has been a bright spot for New Orleans during a difficult season, chipped in 18 points.
For Indiana, Pascal Siakam tried to keep them afloat with 22 points, but the lack of a true floor general was glaring. Why? Because the heart of the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton, is out for the entire 2025-2026 season with a torn Achilles. It's a brutal reality for Indy fans. Without him, the pace is there, but the precision isn't.
The Injury Plague: A Tale of Two Rotations
It’s kinda crazy how many key players are missing from this matchup. If you're trying to handicap the next New Orleans Pelicans - Indiana Pacers game on January 16, 2026, you have to look at the trainer’s room first.
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- Indiana’s Missing Stars: Beyond Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin is out indefinitely with a thumb injury, and Obi Toppin is sidelined following foot surgery. This has forced Rick Carlisle to lean heavily on Andrew Nembhard and Siakam to create literally everything.
- The Pelicans’ Backcourt Void: New Orleans isn't exactly healthy either. Dejounte Murray has yet to make his season debut as he rehabs an Achilles injury, and Jose Alvarado is out with an oblique strain.
- The Herb Jones Factor: Herb Jones, the defensive heartbeat of the Pelicans, has been in and out of the lineup with ankle issues. When he’s out, the Pelicans' defense, which already allows about 122 points per game, becomes a layup line.
Why the New Orleans Pelicans - Indiana Pacers Matchup Defies Logic
You’d think a game between two teams with sub-.250 winning percentages would be a defensive grind. Nope. It's actually the opposite.
The Pelicans rank near the bottom of the league in points allowed (28th overall). They play fast, they shoot a lot of threes (especially Trey Murphy III, who's averaging over 22 points a night), and they often forget to transition back on defense. Indiana is in a similar boat, ranking 23rd in points allowed.
Basically, when these two meet, the "Over" is always a tempting look for bettors. In their last meeting, they combined for 237 points. Neither team has the rim protection or the perimeter discipline right now to stop a leak.
Zion Williamson vs. The Pacers Defense
The biggest mismatch in the New Orleans Pelicans - Indiana Pacers rivalry remains Zion. Even in a "down" season for the team, Zion is averaging 22.4 points and nearly 6 rebounds. Indiana’s frontcourt, led by Siakam and Myles Turner (when healthy), struggles with Zion’s sheer mass and explosive second jump.
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In their December matchup, Zion went to the free-throw line 13 times, making 11. That’s the game right there. If the Pacers can't keep him out of the restricted area without fouling, they don't stand a chance, regardless of how well Siakam plays.
Breaking Down the Statistical Weirdness
Let’s look at some of the niche stats that tell the story of how these teams are playing lately:
- Pace of Play: Despite the losses, Indiana still ranks in the top half of the league in offensive pace. They want to run.
- Three-Point Volatility: The Pelicans are living and dying by the arc. In their recent win against the Nets (January 14), they found a rhythm, but in the loss to Denver just a day prior, the spacing was non-existent.
- The Bench Gap: With so many injuries, both benches are being stretched thin. You’re seeing guys like Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen getting significant run for New Orleans—players who weren't necessarily expected to be cornerstones this early.
The Betting Angle: What Most People Get Wrong
Most casual fans see two "bad" teams and assume the game is a toss-up. But New Orleans has actually been decent against the spread (ATS) when playing teams with a similar record. They’ve put together a 12-2 ATS record this season in games where they manage to score more than 118 points.
Indiana, on the other hand, has been much better at home at Gainbridge Fieldhouse (7-15) than on the road (2-16). If the game is in Indy, the Pacers have a sneaky habit of playing teams tough, even without their All-Star point guard.
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Actionable Insights for the Next Matchup
If you're following the New Orleans Pelicans - Indiana Pacers game this week, keep these specific triggers in mind:
- Monitor the Herb Jones status: If he plays, the Pelicans' defensive rating improves by nearly 5 points per 100 possessions. His presence alone can swing the total toward the "Under."
- Watch the First Quarter: The Pelicans have a habit of starting hot (they put up 44 points in the 1st quarter against Indy in December) and then fading in the 4th. If you're into live betting, Indy might be a "buy low" candidate in the second half.
- Target the Trey Murphy III Props: With no Dejounte Murray and a hobbled backcourt, Murphy is the primary perimeter threat. His points+rebounds+assists (PRA) line is often undervalued because people still view him as just a "shooter."
- Check the Siakam Usage: Pascal is basically playing point-forward. His assist numbers have spiked since January 1st because he's forced to facilitate.
The reality of the New Orleans Pelicans - Indiana Pacers matchup in 2026 is that it’s a battle of attrition. It's about which depleted roster can execute a half-court set in the final two minutes. It might not be "pretty" basketball in the traditional sense, but for those who understand the nuances of roster depth and mismatch hunting, it's one of the most fascinating tactical battles in the league right now.
Check the final injury reports two hours before tip-off on January 16. If Zion and Siakam are both cleared, expect a high-scoring affair that comes down to whoever has the last possession.