Fantasy football is basically a giant trap. You spend months staring at mock drafts and listening to podcasts, only to watch your Week 1 TE rankings crumble because a random backup caught two touchdowns on three targets. It’s frustrating. Honestly, the tight end position is the biggest headache in sports. You either have the guy who puts up wide receiver numbers or you’re stuck chasing four points from a guy who spent 90% of the game blocking a defensive end.
Week 1 is weird. Coaches play games with the depth chart and new offensive coordinators try to get too "creative." If you’re looking at your roster right now and wondering if you should start that rookie over a steady veteran, you’re already in the thick of it. Let’s be real about who actually matters and why most of the "expert" lists you see are just copying each other without looking at the actual matchups.
Why Week 1 TE Rankings Usually Fail You
Most people just rank guys based on where they were drafted. That’s a mistake. If Travis Kelce is playing a defense that historically brackets the tight end and has an elite safety like Kyle Hamilton or Antoine Winfield Jr. roaming the middle, his floor is a lot lower than people want to admit. We have to look at the scheme. We have to look at the target share.
Sam LaPorta changed everything last year. Suddenly, everyone thinks they can find the next elite young tight end in the middle rounds. But for every LaPorta, there are five guys who disappear for three weeks at a time. When we look at Week 1 TE rankings, we have to account for the "rust factor" and how many new pieces are on the offense. A quarterback who just moved teams—think Kirk Cousins in Atlanta—might lean on his tight end as a security blanket, or he might not have the chemistry yet to hit those tight-window seam routes.
The Tier One Giants
Travis Kelce remains the gold standard, but the gap is closing. He's older. The Chiefs added Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown to stretch the field, which should open up the middle for Kelce, but it also means Patrick Mahomes has more shiny new toys to play with. You’re still starting him. Obviously. But don't expect 15 targets a game anymore.
Then you have Trey McBride. If you watched the second half of last season, you know Kyler Murray basically hyper-targeted him. With Marvin Harrison Jr. now on the outside taking away the top cornerbacks, McBride is going to have massive lanes. He’s arguably the safest bet in Week 1 TE rankings because the volume is guaranteed.
Mark Andrews is the wild card here. People forget how dominant he is because he dealt with that brutal leg injury. If he’s 100%, he’s the WR1 in that Ravens offense, regardless of what the depth chart says about Zay Flowers. Todd Monken’s offense loves the vertical tight end look.
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The Mid-Tier Mess: Playing the Matchups
This is where seasons are won or lost. If you didn't grab one of the big three, you're looking at guys like Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, and Evan Engram.
Pitts is the ultimate "fool me once" player. But the coaching change in Atlanta is massive. Arthur Smith isn't there to use him as a decoy blocker anymore. Zac Robinson comes over from the Rams' coaching tree, and they know how to create mismatches. If Pitts doesn't produce in Week 1, the fantasy community might actually riot. But purely based on talent and the projected pace of that Falcons offense, he's a top-six play.
George Kittle is a nightmare for rankings. He’s the best real-life tight end in the league because he can block like a tackle and run like a deer. But in fantasy? He might have 150 yards and two scores, or he might have 2 catches for 18 yards because Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel were cooking. In Week 1, the 49ers usually come out swinging. Kittle is a high-ceiling, low-floor play.
- Evan Engram: PPR gold. Trevor Lawrence loves the short-to-intermediate stuff.
- Jake Ferguson: Dak Prescott’s favorite red-zone target.
- Brock Bowers: The rookie factor. High talent, but will the Raiders use him correctly right out of the gate?
Streaming Is a Valid Strategy
Don't be afraid to bench a "name" for a guy with a better matchup. If you're looking at Week 1 TE rankings and see a guy like Taysom Hill lurking in the late teens, don't ignore him. The Saints are weirdly committed to using him in the red zone. Is it annoying? Yes. Does it win weeks? Also yes.
David Njoku is another one to watch. With Deshaun Watson, his production has been up and down, but Joe Flacco made him look like an All-Pro last year. We need to see if that chemistry carries over to Watson. If it doesn't, Njoku might fall out of the top ten quickly.
Defensive Mismatches to Exploit
You have to look at who is defending the tight end. Some teams, like the Seahawks or the Dolphins, have historically struggled with athletic tight ends. If you see a mid-tier guy playing a team that runs a lot of Cover 2 without a fast linebacker, that's your play.
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The Detroit Lions are a great example. They play aggressively, which leaves the middle of the field open for quick hitters. If you have a tight end playing Detroit, he's probably going to see 7+ targets. Conversely, the New York Jets are a "no-fly zone" for a reason. Their linebackers are incredibly fast. I’d be very wary of starting a borderline TE1 against that Jets defense in the season opener.
The Rookie Learning Curve
Every year we get hyped about a rookie. This year it's Brock Bowers. He's a "generational" talent, or so we're told. But tight end is the hardest position to learn in the NFL besides quarterback. You have to know the run blocking schemes and the passing routes. Most rookies don't pop until Week 8 or 9. If Bowers is your only tight end, have a backup plan. The Raiders' quarterback situation is also... let's call it "unsettled."
Weather and Turf: The Silent Killers
It sounds like a cliché, but it matters. Week 1 can be blistering hot. Tight ends are big humans. If they’re playing in 95-degree humidity in Florida, they’re going to rotate more. They’re going to get tired. You want guys playing in domes or in mild weather where they can stay on the field for 90% of the snaps.
Snap counts are the most important stat nobody talks about. If your tight end is only on the field for 50% of the plays, he’s not a TE1. You need the guys who are "attached" to the formation. Dalton Kincaid in Buffalo is a great example. He’s basically a slot receiver who happens to have a TE designation. That’s the dream for Week 1 TE rankings.
What Most People Get Wrong About Rankings
The biggest mistake is ignoring the offensive line. If a team has a terrible right tackle, guess who has to stay in and help block? The tight end.
Take the New York Giants. If their line is struggling to pick up a blitz, Theo Johnson or whoever is taking snaps isn't going out for passes. They’re chipping a defensive end and then falling into a dump-off route that goes for two yards. When you look at Week 1 TE rankings, look at the O-line matchups. A strong O-line allows the tight end to release into the route immediately. That's the difference between a 12-point game and a 3-point game.
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Dalton Kincaid: The Breakout Candidate
There is a lot of vacated target share in Buffalo now that Stefon Diggs is in Houston. Someone has to catch those passes. While everyone is arguing over which Bills receiver to draft, the smart money is on Kincaid. Josh Allen trusts him. In Week 1, when things get chaotic, quarterbacks go to the guys they trust. Kincaid could easily lead the team in targets against a Cardinals defense that hasn't exactly proven they can stop anyone yet.
The "Steady Eddie" Veterans
Sometimes you just need a floor. If you're in a deep league, look at Dalton Schultz. He’s in a crowded Houston offense, but C.J. Stroud is surgical. Schultz is a reliable red-zone threat. He won’t win you the week with a 30-point explosion, but he’s not going to give you a zero either.
Then there’s Pat Freiermuth. The Steelers' offense was a disaster last year, but Arthur Smith (for all his faults) loves using tight ends in the red zone. "Muth" could be the biggest beneficiary of the quarterback change, whether it's Russell Wilson or Justin Fields under center. Both of those guys like throwing to big targets in the flat.
Actionable Next Steps for Your Roster
Stop overthinking the elite guys. If you spent a high draft pick on a tight end, you start him. Period. Don't get cute and bench Sam LaPorta because you have a "feeling" about a waiver wire pickup.
Check the injury reports 90 minutes before kickoff. Tight ends deal with "minor" ankle and hamstring tweaks that coaches love to hide. A limited tight end is a decoy. If your guy is "Questionable" and it's a game-time decision, have a pivot ready.
Look at the Vegas totals. You want a tight end in a game with an Over/Under of 48 or higher. More points means more trips to the red zone. It’s simple math. A tight end in a game projected to be a 13-10 slog is a recipe for a bad Sunday.
Watch the "Big Slot" usage. Teams are increasingly moving their TEs into the slot to move them away from linebackers and onto smaller cornerbacks. If your tight end is lining up in the slot more than 40% of the time, he’s a must-start.
Finally, trust your gut on the volume. Targets are earned. If a guy earned 8 targets a game at the end of last year and nothing major changed in the offense, he’s going to get those looks again. Week 1 TE rankings are just an educated guess, but if you follow the volume and the Vegas totals, you’ll be ahead of 90% of your league.