If you’ve spent any time looking at the NBA rookie of the year odds lately, you might think the race is already over. Most sportsbooks have Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg sitting at a massive -1000 or even -1250. To put that in perspective, the betting market thinks there is a roughly 90% chance he’s walking away with the trophy in June.
It’s easy to see why. Flagg isn't just a high-volume scorer; he’s essentially a defensive system by himself. At 18 years old, he’s already averaging 18.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 4.2 assists while looking like a seasoned pro next to Luka Dončić. But betting on "locks" in the NBA is a dangerous game. Just ask anyone who bet on Victor Wembanyama early in the 2023-24 season before Chet Holmgren made it a dogfight for four months.
The value in this market usually hides in the shadows of the favorite. While Flagg is the generational talent everyone expected, the 2025-26 rookie class has turned out to be much deeper than the "one-man show" narrative suggested back in October.
The Current State of the NBA Rookie of the Year Odds
Right now, the board is basically Cooper Flagg and everyone else. But "everyone else" is starting to put up numbers that are getting hard to ignore.
- Cooper Flagg (Mavericks): -1000
- Kon Knueppel (Hornets): +850
- V.J. Edgecombe (76ers): +2500
- Derik Queen (Pelicans): +5000
- Cedric Coward (Grizzlies): +10000
Honestly, Kon Knueppel is the name that should be scaring Flagg bettors. The Charlotte Hornets wing briefly took over the top spot in the odds back in mid-November, which was a wild shift considering he started the year as a +2000 long shot. He’s averaging nearly 20 points a game and shooting the lights out from three. If Flagg misses even a two-week stretch with a rolled ankle, Knueppel’s odds are going to plummet toward even money.
Why the Favorite is Minus-Money for a Reason
It's rare to see a rookie enter the league with this much defensive gravity. Usually, rookies are turnstiles on defense. Flagg is the opposite. He’s already among the league leaders in "stocks" (steals plus blocks) for his position.
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The Mavericks have basically handed him the keys to the offense whenever Kyrie Irving rests. On November 29th, he hung 35 points on the Clippers. A day before that? He dished out 11 assists against the Lakers. That kind of versatility is what voters crave. They aren't just looking at points; they’re looking at winning impact. Since the Mavs are firmly in the playoff hunt, Flagg’s stats feel "heavier" than someone putting up 20 a night for a bottom-feeder.
The Case for the Underdogs
If you're looking for a reason to bet against the favorite, or at least hedge your position, you've gotta look at opportunity.
V.J. Edgecombe in Philadelphia is a highlight machine. He actually broke Allen Iverson’s franchise record for points in a debut with 34. While he’s currently sitting at +2500, he leads all rookies in "ticket percentage"—meaning more individual bets have been placed on him than anyone else. He’s the "people’s champ" of this race. If the Sixers push for a top-four seed and Edgecombe keeps jumping over seven-footers, he’s going to stay in the conversation.
Then there’s Ace Bailey in Utah. He was the preseason darling, but injuries and a crowded Jazz rotation slowed his start. Still, he’s shown flashes of being the best pure scorer in the class. He had a 25-point preseason game where he only took 28 dribbles the entire night. That’s elite efficiency. At +50000, he’s a massive long shot now, but the talent hasn't gone anywhere.
Surprising Statistical Leaders
Don't sleep on Cedric Coward in Memphis. He’s currently averaging 13.9 points and 6.7 rebounds. For a guy with +10000 odds, those are "Tier 1" rookie numbers. The problem is visibility. When you're playing in the shadow of Ja Morant, it's hard to get the national media to notice your Rookie of the Year case.
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- Scoring: Kon Knueppel (19.5 PPG)
- All-Around: Cooper Flagg (18.9 / 6.5 / 4.2)
- Efficiency: Derik Queen (Leading in FG% among high-volume rookies)
Historical Trends You Can't Ignore
Voters are predictable. If you want to know where the NBA rookie of the year odds are headed, look at the last 20 years.
Winning matters, but not as much as you'd think. This isn't the MVP award. You can win ROY on a 20-win team if your stats are loud enough. However, the "draft position" bias is real. In 16 of the last 20 seasons, the winner was a top-five pick. Malcolm Brogdon (36th pick in 2016) is the only real outlier this century.
This bodes well for Flagg (No. 1), Knueppel (No. 4), and Edgecombe (No. 3). If you're looking at a guy like Cedric Coward, history says he has a massive uphill battle regardless of his box score.
The Fatigue Factor
By March, the "Cooper Flagg is amazing" stories might start to feel like old news. This is where a late-season surge from someone like Dylan Harper in San Antonio could get interesting. Harper is playing next to Wembanyama. Every highlight he creates is seen by millions. If the Spurs make a late-season run for the Play-In tournament, Harper’s +20000 odds could look like a steal in retrospect.
How to Approach These Odds Right Now
Look, betting on a -1000 favorite is rarely a smart move. You’re risking $1,000 just to win $100. One bad landing on a layup and your money is gone.
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If you're looking for a way to play the NBA rookie of the year odds, the smartest move is often to look for the "swing" players. Kon Knueppel at +850 is a legitimate threat. He has the green light in Charlotte and the shooting splits to sustain his production.
Also, keep an eye on the betting "handle." V.J. Edgecombe currently holds 29.2% of the money at BetMGM. The sportsbooks are sweating his potential win more than Flagg's. When the house is worried about a long shot, you should probably pay attention.
Actionable Strategy for NBA Awards Betting
- Wait for the "Rookie Wall": Almost every rookie hits a slump in February. That is usually the best time to find better prices on the favorites.
- Monitor Injury Reports: In the modern NBA, "load management" can kill an award campaign. A rookie needs to play 65 games to be eligible for major awards under the current CBA rules.
- Focus on Narrative: The media votes on this. If a player starts getting "he's the next [All-Star name]" comparisons, their odds will shift faster than their stats justify.
The race for the 2026 trophy is Flagg's to lose, but the gap between him and the field isn't as wide as the oddsmakers want you to believe. Keep an eye on the efficiency numbers in Charlotte and the highlight reels in Philly. The second half of the season always has a way of turning a "sure thing" into a nail-biter.
Check the injury reports daily and watch for shifts in minutes. If a team like Utah or Washington trades away a veteran at the deadline, their rookies (Bailey or Tre Johnson) will see a massive spike in usage. That's when the real value appears.
Next Steps: You should check the current injury status of the top three candidates before placing any futures bets. Pay close attention to the "Games Played" count to ensure your pick will hit the 65-game minimum required by the NBA.