The regular season is in the rearview mirror, and honestly, the race for the hardware is basically over. If you've been tracking rookie of year odds nfl since the preseason, you know it’s been a wild ride. Remember when Ashton Jeanty was the heavy favorite back in August? Or when Tyler Warren was the "it" guy for the Colts in September?
That feels like a lifetime ago.
Now, as we hit mid-January 2026, the betting markets have narrowed down to a few names, and the prices are getting pretty steep. If you didn't grab Tetairoa McMillan at plus-money back in November, you're looking at some heavy chalk now. It’s not just about the stats, though. It’s about who actually changed the trajectory of their franchise.
The Offensive Race: McMillan’s Hammer Lock
Tetairoa McMillan didn't just play well for the Carolina Panthers; he saved Bryce Young's career. That's the narrative that voters love. Heading into the NFL Honors on February 5, McMillan is sitting as a massive favorite—we're talking -1000 to -1500 depending on which sportsbook you’re looking at.
Why such a huge jump?
Well, he hit the 1,000-yard mark in Week 18 against the Bucs. He finished with 70 catches for 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns. For a rookie receiver in a run-heavy Dave Canales system, those are "go get the trophy" numbers. He led all rookie wideouts in the triple crown of catches, yards, and scores.
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The Guys Who Almost Caught Him
It wasn't always a cakewalk for the Panthers' star. For a minute there in December, TreVeyon Henderson was actually the favorite. The New England Patriots running back was tearing through defenses, but an injury in Week 16 against Baltimore really killed his momentum. He finished with over 900 rushing yards, but missing that late-season stretch was the nail in the coffin.
Then you have the quarterbacks. Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough.
Dart is a weird case. He started the year behind Russell Wilson with the Giants, dealt with a concussion, and still managed to finish the season strong. His Week 18 performance against Dallas (two scores, win) saw his odds jump from +1775 to +900. People are hyped about him, especially with the John Harbaugh rumors floating around New York, but he just didn't play enough games to catch McMillan.
Tyler Shough in New Orleans had a similar "too little, too late" vibe. He was a beast once he took over for Spencer Rattler, but that Week 18 pick against Atlanta really hurt his case. He's sitting around +1900 to +2000.
DROY: The Carson Schwesinger Show
On the defensive side, it’s even less of a contest. Cleveland Browns linebacker Carson Schwesinger is currently the odds-on favorite at -1250.
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Look, nobody saw this coming.
He was a second-round pick out of UCLA (number 33 overall), and he just... never left the field. He played over 95% of the Browns' defensive snaps. You don't see that from rookies very often. He finished with 156 tackles, which was sixth in the entire NFL.
"It's crazy that Schwesinger initially walked on at UCLA... He's an instant star in the NFL." — Bucky Brooks, NFL Analyst.
James Pearce Jr. of the Atlanta Falcons is the only one even remotely in the conversation at +370. Pearce has the "flashy" stats—10.5 sacks and a couple of multi-sack games to end the year—but he only played about half the snaps Schwesinger did. Voters tend to reward the guy who was the heartbeat of a top-ten defense all season long.
Safety Chaos in Seattle
There's a lot of talk about Nick Emmanwori in Seattle, too. He’s a total freak of nature. Mike Macdonald has been using him everywhere—back end, box, slot, even coming off the edge. His odds are around +1400, and while he likely won't win, he’s definitely the guy other coaches are going to be trying to replicate in the 2026 draft.
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Betting Reality Check: Is There Any Value Left?
Honestly? Not really.
When a player hits -1000, the "implied probability" is over 90%. The books are essentially saying, "Please don't bet on this, we already know what's happening."
If you're looking for a "long shot" just for the hell of it, maybe you sprinkle a tiny bit on Jaxson Dart at +900 just in case the voters decide they absolutely have to give it to a quarterback. But historically, when a receiver has a season like McMillan's and leads his team to the playoffs, they don't lose this award.
Historical Trends to Watch
- Round Matters: 9 of the last 11 OROY winners were first-rounders. McMillan fits.
- Draft Position: Kyler Murray and Cam Newton are the only #1 overall picks to win in the last 13 years. Cam Ward (Titans) won't be adding his name to that list this year.
- The "Verse" Factor: Last year Jared Verse (Rams) won DROY as an edge rusher. Before that, it was Will Anderson Jr. The trend is usually sack-getters, which is why Pearce Jr. is still hanging around the odds board, but Schwesinger's tackle volume is just too high to ignore.
What Happens Next?
The voting is already done. We’re just waiting for the ceremony in February. If you're holding a McMillan or Schwesinger ticket from September, you're probably already planning how to spend that money.
For everyone else, the focus is shifting to the 2026 NFL Draft and the opening odds for next year's class. Keep an eye on how these rookies perform in the playoffs—McMillan and the Panthers have a real shot to make some noise, and that's only going to solidify his legacy as one of the best rookie receivers we've seen in a decade.
Actionable Insights:
- Stop chasing OROY/DROY: The current rookie of year odds nfl are too expensive to provide real ROI at this stage.
- Watch the NFL Honors: Tune in on February 5 to see if the chalk holds; it's almost certain McMillan and Schwesinger take the stage.
- Prep for 2026: Start looking at the early 2026 rookie class. History shows that high-volume tackle linebackers and WR1s on teams with young QBs are the "gold mine" for future value bets.