Honestly, if you’ve been following the league for a minute, you know the hype machine for the NBA lottery picks 2025 started way before these kids even stepped on a college campus. Everyone was calling it the "Cooper Flagg Sweepstakes" like it was a done deal. And while Flagg is a monster, this class is actually way weirder and deeper than the "generational" label suggests.
The 2025 draft, which went down this past June at Barclays Center, didn't just give us a new face for the Dallas Mavericks—it basically rewrote the script for how teams are scouting "pro-ready" talent. We saw Rutgers, of all places, produce two top-five picks. We saw a shooter from Duke who looks like he’s 35 years old become an analytics darling. Basically, it was chaos.
The Cooper Flagg Effect and the Top of the Board
Look, Cooper Flagg going number one to Dallas was the least surprising thing to happen in 2025. The kid is 6'9" with a 7-foot wingspan and plays defense like he’s personally offended that you’re on the court. But what most people get wrong is thinking he’s just another Jayson Tatum clone.
Flagg is actually much more of a defensive "event creator." In his first 40 games with the Mavs, he’s already averaging 1.3 steals and nearly a block per game. He’s not a finished product on offense—his three-point shot is sitting at a shaky 28.7%—but his motor is why Dallas is already looking like a problem in the West.
Why the Rutgers Duo Changed Everything
For a long time, the draft was dominated by the Blue Bloods. But in 2025, the real story was the "Piscataway Pipeline."
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- Dylan Harper (No. 2 to San Antonio): He’s a massive 6'6" lead guard who plays with the poise of a 10-year vet. He’s already thriving next to Wemby, averaging over 3 assists per game.
- Ace Bailey (No. 5 to Utah): This was the high-upside swing. Bailey is a 6'10" wing who can hit shots that don't even make sense. Utah took him knowing he’s a project, but the "Michael Porter Jr. with better hops" comparisons are starting to look legit.
The "Sneaky" Stars of the 2025 NBA Lottery Picks
While everyone was staring at Flagg and Bailey, some of the mid-lottery guys have actually been more productive out of the gate. If you look at the Win Shares or the "eye test" from this winter, a couple of names pop.
Kon Knueppel (No. 4 to Charlotte) is basically a walking bucket. People worried he wasn't athletic enough. They were wrong. He’s shooting a ridiculous 42.8% from deep and has become the perfect spacer for LaMelo Ball. He doesn't look like a star, but he plays like a guy who’s going to be in the league for 15 years.
Then you have VJ Edgecombe, who went No. 3 to Philly. He’s basically a human pogo stick. The Bahamas native is giving the Sixers that vertical spacing they’ve lacked since, well, forever. He’s averaging nearly 16 points a night and is already one of the best perimeter defenders in his class.
The International Question Mark
Europe didn't have a "Wemby" this year, but they had volume. Noa Essengue went 12th to Chicago. He’s barely played, which has Bulls fans stressed, but the scouting report always said he was a "2027 player." Meanwhile, Egor Demin (No. 8 to Brooklyn) has been a revelation. Scouts thought he couldn't shoot. He’s currently hitting 46% of his threes over his last dozen games.
The Reality of the 2025 Draft Order
When the lottery balls dropped back in May 2025, it was a disaster for the teams at the very bottom. The Utah Jazz had a 14% chance at the top pick and ended up at five. Dallas, with only a 1.3% chance, jumped all the way to number one. That’s the lottery for you. It’s cruel.
Here is how the top 14 actually shook out:
- 1. Dallas Mavericks: Cooper Flagg (Duke)
- 2. San Antonio Spurs: Dylan Harper (Rutgers)
- 3. Philadelphia 76ers: VJ Edgecombe (Baylor)
- 4. Charlotte Hornets: Kon Knueppel (Duke)
- 5. Utah Jazz: Ace Bailey (Rutgers)
- 6. Washington Wizards: Tre Johnson (Texas)
- 7. New Orleans Pelicans: Jeremiah Fears (Oklahoma)
- 8. Brooklyn Nets: Egor Demin (BYU)
- 9. Toronto Raptors: Collin Murray-Boyles (South Carolina)
- 10. Phoenix Suns (via Houston): Khaman Maluach (Duke)
- 11. Memphis Grizzlies (via Portland): Cedric Coward (Washington St)
- 12. Chicago Bulls: Noa Essengue (France)
- 13. New Orleans Pelicans (via Atlanta): Derik Queen (Maryland)
- 14. San Antonio Spurs: Carter Bryant (Arizona)
Scouting vs. Reality: Halfway Through the Season
Scouting is an inexact science. Usually, it's just guessing with better vocabulary.
Take Tre Johnson. He was drafted 6th by Washington to be a "pure scorer." He’s been exactly that, but he’s doing it in only 24 minutes a game. The Wizards are so deep with young wings that he hasn't even had the chance to fully explode yet. But when he’s on? He’s one of the best snipers in the league already, sitting on 46-39-92 shooting splits.
On the flip side, Khaman Maluach (No. 10) has struggled. The size is there—7'2" is 7'2"—but the speed of the NBA game is eating him alive right now. He’s spent more time in the G-League than with the big club.
What to Watch Moving Forward
If you're a fan of a team that landed one of these NBA lottery picks 2025, the second half of this season is where the "Rookie Wall" hits. Watch for guys like Jeremiah Fears in New Orleans. He’s been a high-volume playmaker, but his efficiency has tanked lately. Can he adjust?
Also, keep an eye on the Spurs' development of Harper. Pairing him with Stephon Castle and Wemby gives San Antonio the most terrifying defensive "core" in the league. They are building a literal wall.
Actionable Insights for Following the 2025 Class:
- Monitor 3P% Trends: For guys like Flagg and Edgecombe, their eventual ceiling depends entirely on whether those early-season shooting numbers were a fluke or a foundation.
- Watch the G-League Assignments: Teams like Chicago and Phoenix are being patient with Essengue and Maluach. Their stats in the G-League are a better indicator of progress than 2-minute "garbage time" stints in the NBA.
- Rookie of the Year Betting: Currently, Kon Knueppel is the dark horse value play because of his efficiency, even if Flagg has the "narrative" lead.
The 2025 class isn't just a one-man show. It’s a group of high-IQ spacers and versatile wings that are already changing how the game is played. If you thought this was a weak class after the top three, you haven't been paying attention to what's happening in Charlotte and Brooklyn.
Go watch some tape on Egor Demin or Kon Knueppel. You’ll see exactly what I mean.
Next Steps for the Season
To stay ahead of the curve, track the Per-36 Minutes stats for the mid-lottery wings. Often, players like Tre Johnson or Egor Demin show star potential in limited roles before they are given the keys to the franchise in their sophomore seasons. Compare these numbers against the 2024 class to see just how much more offensive polish the 2025 group actually has.