The NFL is a weird place where "dynasties" can turn into "rebuilds" in the blink of an eye. If you looked at the afc west division standing over the last decade, it was basically the Kansas City Chiefs and everyone else. But as we hit January 2026, the script hasn't just been flipped—it’s been shredded.
Denver is back. Kansas City is reeling. Jim Harbaugh is doing Harbaugh things in LA. And the Raiders? Well, they’re holding the first pick in the draft. It’s a mess, but the kind of fascinating mess that makes football great. Honestly, nobody saw the Chiefs falling this hard, especially with Patrick Mahomes, but a combination of bad injury luck and a roster that finally looked its age created a vacuum at the top.
The Mile High Resurrection
Denver finished the 2025 regular season with a 14-3 record. Let that sink in for a second. This is a franchise that hadn't won the division since Peyton Manning was under center in 2015. Sean Payton basically dragged this team into the elite tier of the AFC through sheer force of will and a defense that ranks 3rd in the league for points allowed.
The Broncos didn't just win; they dominated. They tied a franchise record for wins and secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They get the bye. They get home-field advantage. Seeing players like Garett Bolles and Quinn Meinerz make First-Team All-Pro tells you everything you need to know about how they're winning—it's in the trenches. It’s not always pretty, but it’s effective. They beat out the New England Patriots for that top spot via a tiebreaker, proving that every single "common game" actually mattered.
Why the Chiefs Hit a Wall
It’s kinda shocking to see the Chiefs sitting at 6-11. For the first time since Mahomes took over the starting job in 2018, Kansas City missed the playoffs.
What went wrong? Everything. Mahomes tearing his ACL late in the season was the final nail, but the problems started way before that. Their rushing attack was bottom-tier, ranking 25th in the league. You can't ask a QB—even the best one on the planet—to carry an entire offense when the run game averages a measly 3.7 yards per carry. The defense also took a massive step back, specifically the pass rush, which ended the season ranked 26th in sacks. They’ve already started firing coaches, with the running backs and wide receivers coaches being the first to go. It’s a full-blown crisis in Arrowhead.
Harbaugh's Chargers are Looming
The Los Angeles Chargers are the "what if" team of the afc west division standing this year. They finished 11-6, which is respectable, but they couldn't catch Denver for the crown. Jim Harbaugh has clearly brought a tougher identity to SoFi Stadium, but they’re still missing that "it" factor to win the big divisional games.
They made the playoffs as the No. 7 seed but got bounced immediately by the Patriots in a 16-3 slog. Justin Herbert is still one of the most talented guys in the league, and with Joe Alt anchoring that line, the foundation is there. But finishing second isn't what Spanos hired Harbaugh for. They’re "close," but in the NFL, close usually just gets you a late-round draft pick and a lot of frustration.
The Raiders' Ground Zero
Then there's Las Vegas. The Pete Carroll experiment lasted exactly one season. It "crashed and burned," as the scouts like to say. A 3-14 record is ugly no matter how you slice it, and it cost Carroll his job on January 5th.
But there’s a silver lining that makes the Raiders the most interesting team to watch this offseason. They have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The buzz is already all about Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. If they pair him with a weapon like Brock Bowers and a guy like Ashton Jeanty, who they drafted to lead the backfield, they could turn this around fast. Plus, they have nearly $98 million in cap space. They are bad right now, but they are "rich" bad, which is the best kind of bad to be.
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Breaking Down the Final Numbers
To see how the afc west division standing actually settled, you have to look at the divisional records. That’s where Denver really separated themselves.
- Denver Broncos: 14-3 (5-1 in the division). They were nearly perfect at home (8-1) and handled the pressure of being the frontrunner.
- Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6 (5-1 in the division). Their divisional record was actually identical to Denver's, but they struggled against out-of-conference opponents.
- Kansas City Chiefs: 6-11 (1-5 in the division). This is the stat that hurts. They couldn't win the games that mattered most for the standings.
- Las Vegas Raiders: 3-14 (1-5 in the division). A season to forget, saved only by the draft position they earned.
What Happens Next
If you're a fan of any of these teams, the next few weeks are massive. Denver is currently preparing for a Divisional Round matchup against the Buffalo Bills. If they win that, the road to the Super Bowl goes through the thin air of Mile High, which is a nightmare for any visiting team.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Raiders are in total evaluation mode. Kansas City needs to figure out how to rebuild a defense and a run game while Mahomes rehabs. The Raiders need a head coach who won't be gone in 12 months. And the Chargers? They need to find a way to stop being the team that "almost" wins.
For the first time in years, the AFC West isn't a one-team race. It’s a power struggle. Denver has the crown for now, but with the No. 1 pick in Vegas and the Harbaugh era in LA just getting started, the 2026 season is already looking like a bloodbath.
Practical Steps for Fans
- Monitor the Broncos Playoff Run: Keep an eye on the injury report for the Divisional Round against Buffalo. Denver's depth in the trenches is their biggest strength.
- Watch the Raiders Coaching Search: The next hire in Vegas will decide if Fernando Mendoza (the presumed No. 1 pick) becomes a star or a bust.
- Track the Mahomes Recovery: The timeline for his ACL rehab will dictate whether the Chiefs are even competitive in the first half of the 2026 season.
- Check the Cap Space Moves: The Raiders have $98 million to play with. Expect them to be aggressive in free agency to support their incoming rookie QB.