If you’ve been staring at Zillow for the last year with a sense of quiet desperation, today might actually be the day you take a breath. Honestly, it’s been a rough ride. But as of Tuesday, January 13, 2026, the vibe in the housing market has shifted from "completely impossible" to "maybe, just maybe."
Mortgage interest rate news today is dominated by one big number: 5.86%.
That’s where the 30-year fixed-rate average is sitting according to the latest data from Zillow. It’s the first time in what feels like an eternity—really since the fall of 2024—that we’ve consistently seen rates dip back under that psychological 6% barrier.
It wasn't a slow crawl, either. Rates tumbled about 18 basis points just since last week. For a $400,000 loan, that’s not just "coffee money." That is a "nice dinner out every single month" kind of difference.
The Trump Factor and the $200 Billion "Surprise"
Markets don't usually move this fast unless someone pokes them with a stick. Last week, President Trump did exactly that. In a move that caught most of Wall Street off guard, he announced via social media that he was directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
Why does that matter to you?
Basically, when the government (or government-sponsored entities) buys up these securities, it creates massive demand. High demand for these bonds drives their prices up and, crucially, pushes interest rates down. It’s a classic lever. Bankrate’s analysts noted that while rates were already hovering near 15-month lows around 6.2%, this specific announcement acted like a catalyst, plunging the 30-year average into the 5.8% range almost overnight.
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It’s bold. It’s also controversial.
Some economists, like those at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), are already waving yellow flags. They worry that while this helps buyers today, the massive amount of federal borrowing could eventually push the 10-year Treasury yield—the benchmark for all mortgage rates—back up toward 4.3% by 2027 or 2028. For today, though? The market is taking the win.
What the Fed is Thinking (and Why They’re Divided)
While the White House is pulling one lever, the Federal Reserve is looking at a completely different dashboard. We just got the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this morning.
Inflation rose 2.7% in December.
That’s basically what everyone expected, but it’s still north of the Fed's 2% target. It’s like a runner who is close to the finish line but starts cramping up in the final 100 meters. Because inflation isn't fully "dead" yet, the Fed is expected to hold rates steady at their upcoming January 27-28 meeting.
A Mixed Bag for Workers
The jobs report from last Friday was... weird. On one hand, the U.S. added only 50,000 jobs (economists wanted 73,000). On the other hand, unemployment actually fell to 4.4%.
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This is where it gets nuanced. Goldman Sachs economists, led by Jan Hatzius, are starting to see "entrenched" weakness in the labor market, especially for college grads. The unemployment rate for young graduates (ages 20-24) has climbed to 8.5%. That’s a 70% jump from the 2022 lows.
When people lose jobs, they don't buy houses.
The Fed sees this. They’re caught between wanting to keep rates high to kill the last bit of inflation and wanting to cut rates to save the job market. Most analysts, including those at Morningstar, are betting the Fed will be "forced" into deeper cuts later in 2026 to prevent a full-blown recession.
Today's Rate Snapshot: The Real Numbers
If you’re calling a lender this afternoon, don’t expect a single "magic" number. Rates vary wildly based on the loan type and your credit score. Here is what the national landscape looks like right now:
- 30-Year Fixed: 5.86% (Down from 6.04% last week)
- 15-Year Fixed: 5.28% (A great spot for refi-ers)
- 30-Year VA: 5.52% (A massive win for veterans)
- 5/1 ARM: 6.15% (Interestingly, these are currently higher than fixed rates, which is rare)
If you're looking to refinance, the math is finally starting to make sense again. The general rule of thumb is that if you can drop your rate by 0.5% to 0.75%, it’s worth looking at the closing costs. If you’re currently sitting on a 6.8% or 7% rate from early 2025, you are officially in the "refi zone."
The "Great Housing Reset" of 2026
Redfin and Zillow have been using a specific phrase lately: The Great Reset.
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For the last couple of years, the market has been frozen. Sellers didn't want to give up their 3% pandemic rates, and buyers couldn't afford the 7% new rates. It was a stalemate.
But 2026 is feeling different.
Inventory is actually growing. Active listings are projected to rise nearly 9% this year. In the South and West—think cities like Austin, Atlanta, and Las Vegas—inventory is actually 50% higher than pre-pandemic levels. That’s huge. It means for the first time in years, you might actually be able to ask a seller for repairs or a closing cost credit without getting laughed out of the room.
The Affordability Gap
We have to be honest here: it's still not "cheap" to buy a home.
Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), points out that first-time buyers have dropped to an all-time low of 21% of the market. The median age of a first-time buyer is now 40.
While mortgage interest rate news today is positive, the "haves vs. have-nots" divide is real. Baby boomers are still dominating the market, often paying cash. If you're a first-time buyer, you’re competing against people who don't even care what the interest rate is because they aren't taking out a loan.
Practical Steps to Take Right Now
If you're sitting on the sidelines, don't just wait for 4% rates. They might never come back. Instead, focus on what you can control while the market is in this "dip."
- Check your "Refi Math": If your current rate is 6.5% or higher, call your lender today. Even if you don't pull the trigger this afternoon, get the breakdown of closing costs versus monthly savings.
- Watch the 10-Year Treasury: If you see the yield on the 10-year Treasury (symbol: ^TNX) start climbing toward 4.2% again, mortgage rates will follow. Today’s sub-6% rates are sensitive to market volatility.
- Get a "Float-Down" Provision: If you are buying, ask your lender about a float-down option. This lets you lock in today’s lower rate but allows you to snag an even lower one if rates continue to fall before you close.
- Look South and West: If you have the flexibility to move, the inventory glut in states like Florida and Texas is creating a "buyer's tilt" that we haven't seen in half a decade.
The news today is a rare green light in a long season of red. Rates are under 6%, the government is actively buying mortgage bonds to keep them there, and inventory is finally showing up. It isn't a "perfect" market, but it’s the most usable market we’ve seen in a very long time.