The regular season is barely in the rearview mirror, but if you’re a fan of a team that spent December looking at vacation rentals instead of playoff seedings, you’re already living for April. Honestly, that’s just how the league works now. We spend months arguing over third-down conversions only to realize that, for about twenty fanbases, the only date that actually matters is when the commissioner walks onto that stage in Pittsburgh.
Everyone has an opinion. Your neighbor thinks the Raiders are destined to take a quarterback because they haven't had a franchise guy since... well, it's been a minute. Your group chat is convinced that "generational" is a word we use way too much. And they’re probably right. But when you look at a mock first round nfl draft this early, it isn't just about guessing names. It’s about understanding the panic, the needs, and the weird reality of how college production translates to Sunday afternoons.
The Chaos at the Top
The Las Vegas Raiders are sitting at No. 1. It’s a spot that brings as much pressure as it does hope. Most experts, including the folks over at Tankathon and CBS, are pointing directly at Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza. He just won the Heisman. He’s got that "it" factor that makes scouts ignore the fact that Indiana isn't exactly a traditional blue-blood powerhouse.
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But wait.
Is it really that simple? The New York Jets are right there at No. 2, and their situation is—to put it mildly—a mess. They need help everywhere. Some mocks have them taking Arvell Reese, the Ohio State linebacker who basically lived in opposing backfields all season. It’s a classic defensive pick for a team that can’t seem to find its identity.
Then you have the Arizona Cardinals at No. 3. They’ve got Kyler, sure, but they need someone to actually hit the other quarterback. Rueben Bain Jr. from Miami is the name you’ll see in almost every mock first round nfl draft right now. He’s a "battering ram," as Fox Sports put it. If you’re Arizona, you don't overthink that. You just take the guy who breaks things.
The Arch Manning Sized Elephant in the Room
We have to talk about Arch Manning. We just do.
For a year, everyone assumed he’d be the No. 1 pick in 2026. Then the 2025 season happened. It was a rollercoaster. He was the preseason favorite, then he struggled, then he looked like a god for the final five games of the regular season.
He decided to stay at Texas.
That’s a massive shift for the 2026 landscape. Without Arch, the quarterback class feels a bit... thin? Ty Simpson from Alabama is in. Dante Moore from Oregon is staying in school. Suddenly, teams like the Raiders or the Saints (picking at No. 8) are looking at Mendoza or maybe a late riser like Carson Beck, who finished strong at Miami.
It changes the math. If you’re a team that needs a QB and you aren't in the top two, you might be looking at a "reach" or waiting until 2027.
Defense is Actually... Fun?
Usually, the first round is all about the "shiny toys." Wide receivers, flashy quarterbacks, maybe a tackle if the class is deep. But 2026 feels different. This is a defensive coordinator’s dream.
- Caleb Downs (Ohio State): He’s a safety, but he plays like a linebacker and covers like a corner. Washington is sitting at No. 7 and they desperately need a playmaker in the secondary.
- Will Johnson (Michigan): People are comparing him to Jaycee Horn. He’s 6'2", fast, and physical. If he falls past the top five, someone is getting a steal.
- Abdul Carter (Penn State): The Giants are at No. 5. They love pass rushers. Carter is that hybrid freak who makes life miserable for tackles.
The depth at edge and corner is the reason these early mocks are so defense-heavy. You’ve got guys like Keldric Faulk (Auburn) and David Bailey (Texas Tech) who could easily jump into the top ten if they test well at the combine.
What the "Experts" Get Wrong
Here’s the thing about a mock first round nfl draft in January: they almost always ignore trades.
Last year, nobody expected the move-ups we saw. This year, keep an eye on the Los Angeles Rams. They have two first-round picks (their own and the one from Atlanta). They are sitting on a gold mine if they want to jump up for a quarterback to eventually replace Matthew Stafford.
And don’t sleep on the running backs. I know, I know—"don't take a RB in the first round." But Jeremiyah Love from Notre Dame is different. He’s a dual-threat guy who fits the modern NFL perfectly. If a team like Kansas City (picking at No. 9) or Cincinnati (No. 10) wants to get younger and faster, Love is the type of player that makes you break your "no RBs early" rule.
Why This Class Matters More Than 2025
The 2025 class was dominated by a few big names, but 2026 feels deeper across the board, especially on the offensive line. Look at Francis Mauigoa from Miami or Spencer Fano from Utah. These aren't just "project" players. They are Day 1 starters.
The San Francisco 49ers are reportedly looking at the interior offensive line. Even though they’ve been successful, they know the window is closing if they can't protect the pocket. When you see a mock that has them taking a guard or center in the 20s, don't roll your eyes. It’s the smart move.
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2026 First Round Draft Order (Top 10)
| Pick | Team | Likely Direction |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Vegas Raiders | Quarterback (Fernando Mendoza) |
| 2 | New York Jets | Linebacker / Edge (Arvell Reese) |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals | Edge (Rueben Bain Jr.) |
| 4 | Tennessee Titans | Wide Receiver (Carnell Tate) |
| 5 | New York Giants | Edge / OLB (Abdul Carter) |
| 6 | Cleveland Browns | Offensive Tackle (Spencer Fano) |
| 7 | Washington Commanders | Safety / Secondary (Caleb Downs) |
| 8 | New Orleans Saints | Quarterback / Best Player Available |
| 9 | Kansas City Chiefs | Tackle / Running Back (Jeremiyah Love) |
| 10 | Cincinnati Bengals | Defensive Line (Peter Woods) |
The "Sleeper" Prospects
If you want to sound smart at the water cooler, stop talking about the guys on the Heisman shortlist. Talk about the guys who dominated the analytics but didn't get the TV time.
Elijah Sarratt at Indiana is a beast. He’s 6'2", 210 pounds, and catches everything. He’s being compared to a mix of Keenan Allen and Mike Evans. He might not go top ten, but he’s a first-round talent that could end up in a place like Baltimore or Tampa Bay.
Then there’s Nico Iamaleava. His journey from Tennessee to UCLA was weird, and his stats have been inconsistent. But the tools? The 6'6" frame and the rocket arm? Some scouts still see a first-round pick. Others see a Day 3 project. He’s the most polarizing player in this entire cycle.
Real Talk: How to Use These Mocks
Don't take them as gospel. Seriously.
A mock first round nfl draft is a temperature check. It tells you which positions are deep and which teams are in "panic mode." If you see your team linked to a tackle three weeks in a row by three different writers, there’s probably smoke there.
The biggest thing to watch between now and April is the medicals. We’ve seen guys like Will Johnson struggle with injuries this past season. If his foot or shoulder doesn't look right at the combine, he slides. If a guy like Peter Woods (Clemson) shows up ten pounds heavier and still runs a sub-5.0 forty, he rises.
Actionable Steps for Draft Fans
If you actually want to follow this stuff like a pro, here’s what you should do:
- Watch the Senior Bowl. This is where the "small school" guys prove they can play with the big boys. It’s the first real "filter" of the draft season.
- Ignore the "Big Boards" until March. Right now, everyone is just recycling the same ten names. Once the combine happens, the real board starts to take shape.
- Check the "Underclassman Tracker." The NFL recently changed the rules on early "soft" deadlines for declarations. Knowing who is actually in the pool is half the battle.
- Follow the "Area Scouts" on Twitter/X. The national guys get the headlines, but the guys who actually live in the SEC or Big Ten footprints usually have the best info on character and work ethic.
The 2026 draft is going to be defined by whether or not teams are willing to gamble on high-ceiling, inconsistent quarterbacks or if they'll play it safe with a historically good defensive class. Honestly, if I’m the Raiders, I’m nervous. If I’m the Cardinals? I’m thrilled.
Get your spreadsheets ready. It’s going to be a long, loud road to Pittsburgh.
Next Steps for Your Draft Prep:
- Review the official NFL underclassman declaration list to see which of your favorite college stars are actually turning pro.
- Compare the current draft order with your team's salary cap situation to see which needs they might address in free agency before the draft.
- Track the "Pro Day" schedule for top prospects like Fernando Mendoza and Caleb Downs to see when they'll be performing for scouts.