If you’ve been following the stove this winter, you know it's been weird. Usually, by mid-January, the big fish have found their ponds and we're arguing about fourth outfielders and middle relief options. Not this time. As we sit here in 2026, the market is still frozen for a handful of superstars who were supposed to be signed by Christmas.
MLB free agent predictions 2025 and into 2026 are basically a game of chicken between agents wanting 10-year deals and owners who are suddenly obsessed with short-term, high-AAV (Average Annual Value) contracts.
The landscape has shifted. We aren't just looking at where guys land; we're looking at how the "Bregman Blueprint" is changing everything. Last year, Alex Bregman’s three-year, $120 million deal with the Red Sox shocked people because it wasn't the decade-long megadeal everyone expected. Now? It’s the gold standard for the elite tier.
The Kyle Tucker Sweepstakes: A Three-Horse Race
Honestly, Kyle Tucker is the guy everyone is waiting on. He’s 29 years old, he’s been a 4-WAR machine for five straight years, and he’s a lefty bat that fits literally anywhere.
The rumor mill is spinning fast today. Word is the Toronto Blue Jays are the only team willing to actually go to ten years. If they pull that off, it signals a massive shift in how that front office operates—especially after they already snagged Dylan Cease and Kazuma Okamoto earlier this winter.
But then you have the Mets. Steve Cohen is reportedly dangling a three-year deal worth $50 million a year. It’s a insane amount of money for a short window. If Tucker wants to bet on himself and hit the market again at 32, the Mets are the play. The Dodgers are lingering too, but they seem more interested in the short-term high-money route.
I'm putting my money on Toronto. They’ve been aggressive, they met with him in Dunedin, and they have the "long-term security" card that the others aren't playing.
Why the Pitching Market is Stalled
It's kinda wild that Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez are still sitting there. Valdez is coming off a 2025 where he threw 192 innings with a 3.66 ERA. He’s the ultimate groundball specialist. But because the Astros signed Tatsuya Imai to fill his spot, Valdez is a man without a country right now.
Most experts, including David Schoenfield at ESPN, have him pegged for the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs have the payroll flexibility—they’re about $22 million under where they were last year—and they desperately need a guy they can trust in a Game 1 situation.
The Left-Handed Dilemma
- Framber Valdez: Higher ceiling, elite grounder rate (61.5%), but he's 32.
- Ranger Suárez: Younger (30), craftier, and probably cheaper.
- The Verdict: Teams like the Orioles are sniffing around, but don't be surprised if the Cubs pivot to Suárez if Valdez's camp insists on a six-year deal.
What Most People Get Wrong About the "Old Guard"
You've probably seen names like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Paul Goldschmidt still on the list. People think these guys are done. They aren't.
Goldschmidt actually looked like his MVP self for the first half of 2025 with the Yankees. He was hitting .338 in June! Then the wheels fell off. At 38, he’s not getting a multi-year deal, but a team like the Pirates or even a return to the Cardinals on a "legacy" one-year flyer makes too much sense to ignore.
And then there's Andrew McCutchen. It’s Pittsburgh or retirement. There is no in-between. He’s 28 homers away from 400. He’s going back to PNC Park.
The Sleeper: Cody Bellinger
Everyone forgot about Belli because his 2025 wasn't a "contract year" masterpiece. But he’s only 30. He can play three outfield spots and first base.
The Yankees and Mets are reportedly looking at him as the "plan B" if they miss out on the Kyle Tucker bidding war. He’s going to be much more affordable, and in a world where teams are terrified of the luxury tax—nine teams paid it in 2025, with the Dodgers shellking out $169 million alone—Bellinger is the smart money play.
MLB Free Agent Predictions 2025: Where the Stars Land
If I'm sticking my neck out, here is how the rest of this chaotic winter finishes:
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- Kyle Tucker: Blue Jays (10 years, $310M).
- Framber Valdez: Cubs (5 years, $145M).
- Ranger Suárez: Orioles (4 years, $90M).
- Bo Bichette: Yankees (The Red Sox interest is real, but the Yankees need the shortstop stability).
- Cody Bellinger: Mets (The "consolation prize" that actually hits 30 homers).
Final Reality Check
The truth is, the 2026 payroll projections show that the big spenders are getting tapped out. The Dodgers are already at $357 million for their tax payroll. The Phillies and Mets aren't far behind.
This means the "middle class" of free agency—the Jurickson Profars and Gleyber Torres types—are going to have to wait even longer. Torres ended up taking a qualifying offer from Detroit earlier this winter because the market just wasn't there.
If you're a fan of a team like the Mariners or Tigers, this is your window. The "Super Teams" are bloated. The value is in the 3-year, $60M deals that guys like Eugenio Suárez or Nathan Eovaldi have made a living on.
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Actionable Next Steps for Fans
- Watch the Blue Jays/Tucker News: If he signs for 10 years, expect the trade market to explode as teams like the Mets pivot their remaining budget to the trade block.
- Monitor the Cubs' Rotation: If they miss on Valdez, keep an eye on a potential trade for a younger arm rather than overpaying for a 33-year-old mid-tier starter.
- Check the "Spring Training Pop": Historically, a few of these veterans (Scherzer/Verlander) won't sign until pitchers and catchers report in February to avoid the wear and tear of early camp. Don't panic if your team hasn't made a move by February 1st.
The 2025-2026 offseason isn't over yet; it’s just getting started. Keep an eye on the luxury tax thresholds, because that $244 million line is the only thing stopping Steve Cohen from signing everyone on this list.