Week 7 is always that weird turning point where we think we know everything, but honestly, we know nothing. You’ve seen it a million times. A team starts 5-1, everyone crowns them, and then they lose to a backup quarterback on a rainy Sunday in October.
Picking winners at this stage of the season is basically like trying to predict the weather in London. Speaking of which, we literally have a game in London this week. It’s chaos.
If you’re looking for week 7 nfl picks straight up, you’ve gotta stop looking at the standings and start looking at the hospital wing. Injuries are currently gutting some of the best rosters in the league. If you aren't checking the inactive list before you lock in a winner, you're just throwing money into a bonfire.
The Monday Night Doubleheader: High Stakes and Thin Rosters
Monday night is a total fever dream with two games. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading into Detroit to face the Lions is arguably the game of the week. Most people are jumping on the Detroit bandwagon because, well, it’s Ford Field and Dan Campbell usually has those guys ready to run through a brick wall.
But look at the Bucs. Baker Mayfield has been playing like a man possessed. He’s a legitimate MVP candidate right now, which sounds wild to say in 2026, but the tape doesn't lie. The problem? His wide receiver room is a revolving door. Mike Evans is dealing with a nasty collarbone injury, and Chris Godwin is out. Can Mayfield really out-duel Jared Goff when he’s throwing to guys who were on the practice squad three weeks ago?
Probably not.
The Lions are coming off a weird loss to the Chiefs where they didn't even commit a penalty and still found a way to lose. That’s gonna sting. Expect Detroit to play angry.
Then you’ve got the late game: Houston at Seattle. The Seahawks are weirdly good at home under Mike Macdonald. Sam Darnold—yes, that Sam Darnold—is actually being efficient. Meanwhile, the Texans might be without Nico Collins. If Collins is in concussion protocol, C.J. Stroud loses his deep threat.
The Pick: Lions and Seahawks.
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Why the Eagles vs. Vikings Matchup Is a Trap
Everyone is panic-selling their Philadelphia Eagles stock. It makes sense. They looked like a total mess against the Giants recently. Jalen Hurts is making those "what was he thinking?" throws again, and the offensive line isn't the impenetrable fortress it used to be.
Now they go to Minnesota.
The Vikings are waiting with Brian Flores and a defense that loves to confuse young quarterbacks. However, the Vikings have their own drama. J.J. McCarthy’s status has been a giant question mark. If he’s out or hobbled, you’re looking at a much lower ceiling for that offense.
A lot of experts are picking the Vikings as a "vibe" pick. Don't fall for it. The Eagles are still the more talented roster on paper, and Nick Sirianni usually finds a way to stop the bleeding right when the media starts calling for his head. It won't be pretty. It might be a 17-14 slog.
The Pick: Eagles (barely).
Week 7 NFL Picks Straight Up: The "Lock" of the Week
Is there ever a real lock in this league? Probably not. But the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Las Vegas Raiders is about as close as it gets.
The Raiders are a mess. Maxx Crosby is banged up, and their offense has no identity. On the other side, Patrick Mahomes is finally starting to click with his new-look receiving corps. The spread on this is massive for a reason. Even if the Chiefs play their "B" game, they’re lightyears ahead of Las Vegas right now.
Quick Hits for the Rest of the Slate:
- Bengals over Steelers: Thursday night games are always sloppy. Joe Burrow usually shines in primetime, even if the Steelers' defense is terrifying.
- Bears over Saints: Chicago is actually a tough place to play in October. The Saints are dealing with a season-ending injury to Kendre Miller and a battered O-line.
- Patriots over Titans: Mike Vrabel going back to Tennessee is the ultimate "revenge" narrative. Drake Maye is gaining confidence every week.
- Packers over Cardinals: Green Bay is just a more complete team. Kyler Murray is out, which basically kills the Cardinals' ability to improvise.
- 49ers over Falcons: San Francisco at home on Sunday night? Hard to bet against Kyle Shanahan in that spot, even with Brock Purdy sidelined. Mac Jones has been surprisingly decent as a fill-in, but the Falcons are traveling across the country on a short week.
Mistakes People Make With Week 7 NFL Picks Straight Up
The biggest mistake? Overreacting to Week 6. In the NFL, "momentum" is often just a fancy word for "who had a lucky bounce last Sunday."
You also have to account for the London effect. The Rams and Jaguars are playing across the pond. Those games are notoriously unpredictable. The Jaguars have been living in London lately, so they have the travel routine down to a science. But the Rams have Sean McVay. In a weird environment, I’ll take the better coach every single time.
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Also, watch the weather in the Midwest. We’re getting into that time of year where wind speeds start to matter more than 40-yard dash times. If it's a 20-mph wind day in Chicago or Cleveland, those high-flying passing attacks are going to struggle.
What to Watch Before Kickoff
Don't just look at the scoreboard. Look at the trenches. The Eagles' struggles are directly tied to their O-line play. The Bucs' success depends on whether they can protect Mayfield long enough for his secondary targets to get open.
If you're making your own week 7 nfl picks straight up, keep a close eye on the late-week practice reports. A "Limited Participation" on Thursday often turns into an "Out" on Sunday.
Actionable Insights for your picks:
- Check the Turf: London and Chicago are expecting slick conditions. Favor the better running game (Rams and Bears).
- Fade the Drama: Tennessee is in a transitional phase with a coaching change. Don't bet on a "spark" against a disciplined Patriots team.
- Trust the Defense: Denver's defense is elite right now. Even if Bo Nix is out, their defense can carry them against a struggling Giants team.
Go check the official NFL injury report one last time. It’s the only way to stay ahead of the curve before the early games kick off.