If you look at a map of the last few presidential elections, Minnesota looks like a giant blue thumb sticking out in the middle of a very red Midwest. It’s a bit of a statistical anomaly. Honestly, it has the longest active streak of voting for Democrats in the entire country.
The last time a Republican won Minnesota for president? That was Richard Nixon in 1972. Even when Ronald Reagan won 49 states in 1984, Minnesota was the lone "no" vote. They stuck with their local guy, Walter Mondale.
But if you actually drive through the state, you’ll see a different story. Outside of the Twin Cities, the "Blue Wall" feels pretty thin.
Minnesota Red or Blue State: Why the Label is Complicated
The short answer is that Minnesota is a blue state in results, but a purple state in its soul.
In the 2024 election, Kamala Harris took the state by about 4.2 points. That’s a win, sure. But it’s a lot tighter than the 7-point margin Joe Biden had in 2020. Republicans have been looking at those narrowing numbers for years, thinking they’re just one good candidate away from flipping the script.
The divide isn’t really north vs. south. It’s "The Cities" vs. "Greater Minnesota."
Basically, the seven-county Twin Cities metro area—Minneapolis, St. Paul, and the surrounding suburbs—holds the vast majority of the population. They vote heavily for the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) party. That’s what they call Democrats in Minnesota. It’s a holdover from a 1944 merger between the state’s Democrats and a powerful farmer-labor party.
Once you get about 45 minutes outside of Minneapolis, the landscape changes. The yard signs change. You see more red.
In 2024, Donald Trump actually flipped four counties that Biden had won: Carlton, Blue Earth, Nicollet, and Winona. Carlton County hadn’t gone Republican since 1928. That’s a long time. It suggests that while the state is "blue," the ground is shifting beneath people's feet.
The Twin Cities Anchor
Minneapolis and St. Paul are the reason Minnesota stays blue. Hennepin and Ramsey counties are massive. They produce huge vote totals that usually cancel out the red margins in the other 80+ counties.
It’s about volume.
The suburbs have also shifted. Places like Eden Prairie or Plymouth used to be country-club Republican strongholds. Now? They’ve moved toward the DFL, especially among college-educated voters. This suburban shift has been the biggest headache for the Minnesota GOP.
The Iron Range and Rural Realignment
Up north, in the Iron Range, things are weird. Historically, this was union territory. Mining country. People were DFL for generations because of the "Labor" part of the party name.
That’s dying out.
Voters in the Range have moved toward the Republican party as cultural issues take a front seat over traditional union economics. St. Louis County still leans blue because of Duluth, but the surrounding mining towns are increasingly red.
What’s Happening Right Now in 2026?
We are currently heading into a massive 2026 election cycle that will likely redefine the minnesota red or blue state debate.
Governor Tim Walz—who gained national fame (or notoriety, depending on who you ask) as the 2024 VP nominee—recently announced he isn’t running for a third term. That’s a huge deal. He was the face of the "One Minnesota" brand for years.
Without an incumbent, the floodgates are open.
- The DFL side: There’s massive talk about Senator Amy Klobuchar running for Governor. She’s the most popular politician in the state and has a habit of winning by double digits. If she runs, the state likely stays "Likely Democratic."
- The GOP side: Lisa Demuth, the Speaker of the Minnesota House, is jumping in. Scott Jensen, who ran in 2022, is also in the mix. Republicans think the 2024 "rightward shift" is their opening.
As of today, January 17, 2026, the state legislature is a mess of ties. The House is split exactly 67-67. You can’t get more "purple" than a literal tie.
It’s hard to govern when nobody has the gavel.
The Congressional Split
Look at the U.S. House seats to see the "Two Minnesotas" in action.
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- The 1st, 6th, 7th, and 8th districts are solid Red.
- The 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th are solid Blue.
The 2nd District, held by Angie Craig, is usually the "swing" district. But even there, she won by double digits in 2024. The middle is disappearing. You’re either in a deep blue pocket or a deep red one.
Is Minnesota Actually a Swing State?
National pundits love to call Minnesota a "battleground."
Is it?
If you define a swing state as one that actually flips, then no. Minnesota doesn't flip. It hasn't flipped in over 50 years.
But if you define it as a state that could flip if the national environment is right, then yes. The 2024 results showed a 3% shift to the right across almost every county. Even in deep-blue Hennepin County, the margins weren't as "safe" as they used to be.
Groups like the Cook Political Report currently rank Minnesota as "Likely Democratic" for the 2026 Senate and Gubernatorial races. That’s a step below "Solid." It means the GOP has a path, but it’s an uphill climb through a snowstorm.
Understanding the "Secret" Third Parties
You can't talk about Minnesota politics without mentioning the "spoilers."
Minnesota has a high tolerance for third parties. Remember Jesse Ventura? He won the governorship as a third-party candidate in 1998.
In every election, "Legal Marijuana Now" or "Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis" candidates used to pull 2% to 5% of the vote. Now that Minnesota legalized recreational weed in 2023, those parties have lost their main selling point, but they still exist. In a state decided by 4 points, a 2% third-party draw can change the winner.
In 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Jill Stein combined for about 1.2% of the vote. That’s small, but in a closer year, it’s the difference between a blue win and a red upset.
Actionable Insights for 2026
If you're watching the state's political health, here is what actually matters.
1. Watch the 2026 Gubernatorial Primary
If Amy Klobuchar doesn't run, the DFL might move further left. A progressive candidate from Minneapolis might struggle to win over the "moderate" voters in the suburbs of Dakota and Anoka counties. That’s the Republican's best chance to flip the state.
2. Follow the Money in the 2nd District
Angie Craig’s seat is the canary in the coal mine. If Republicans start polling ahead there, the state is in play for the Governor’s mansion.
3. The Rural Turnout Gap
Republicans win big in the country, but the population is shrinking. Democrats win in the cities where the population is growing. To win, Republicans don't just need to win the rural areas; they need to win them by 70% or 80% to offset the metro area.
4. Check the State House Tie-Breakers
Keep an eye on special elections for the state legislature. The 67-67 tie is unsustainable. Whichever party breaks that tie in 2026 will control the state's budget and legislative agenda for the next two years.
Minnesota remains a "Blue State," but it’s no longer a "Safe State." The 2024 shift rightward, combined with the exit of Tim Walz, makes 2026 the most unpredictable year in a generation.
To get the most accurate picture, don't just look at the statewide total. Look at the margins in the "collar counties" around the Twin Cities. That is where Minnesota elections are won and lost.
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Check the Minnesota Secretary of State website for certified precinct-level data if you want to see exactly how your specific neighborhood tilted in the last cycle. Knowing your local legislative district's lean is more helpful than just looking at the big blue-and-red map.