You’ve probably seen the headlines. Merck & Company stock is basically the "steady Eddie" of the pharma world, right? Well, maybe not for long. Things are getting weirdly interesting as we head into 2026. If you're holding these shares or thinking about jumping in, you're likely staring at a giant ticking clock.
That clock? It's Keytruda.
The drug is a monster. Honestly, it’s hard to overstate how much Merck relies on this single cancer-fighting treatment. In 2026 alone, analysts expect Keytruda to rake in roughly $34 billion. That is a massive chunk of their projected $68 billion to $70 billion total revenue. But there is a catch. A big one. The patents start falling off in 2028.
The $70 Billion Confidence Bomb
Rob Davis, the CEO, isn't sweating it. Or at least he says he isn't. Just a few days ago at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, he basically dropped a "confidence bomb" on the audience. He’s calling the upcoming loss of exclusivity a "hill" rather than a "cliff."
Bold move.
The company is now projecting they can hit $70 billion in annual revenue by the mid-2030s. They aren’t just hoping; they are buying their way there. They just finalized a $9.2 billion deal for Cidara Therapeutics. Why? To get their hands on a universal flu preventive. They also swallowed Verona Pharma recently to grab a first-in-class COPD treatment called Ohtuvayre.
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Is it enough? Some folks on Wall Street, like the analysts at Trefis, aren't totally sold. They argue that replacing Keytruda revenue is one thing, but actually growing past it is a much taller order.
Why the 2026 Numbers Actually Matter
Let's talk price. Shares of MRK opened recently around $109.15. Most analysts have a target price sitting somewhere near $118 to $120. That’s about a 10% upside. Not exactly "to the moon" territory, but the dividend makes it feel a bit more comfortable.
Merck just declared a first-quarter 2026 dividend of $0.85 per share. If you do the math, that’s a yield of roughly 3.1%. Compared to the broader market, that’s a decent chunk of change just for sitting still.
The Underdogs and the New Tech
Everyone focuses on the big oncology numbers, but keep an eye on Winrevair. This drug for pulmonary arterial hypertension is a quiet beast. It cleared $1 billion in sales late last year. Then there’s Capvaxive. Merck managed to snag a huge portion of the adult pneumonia vaccine market from Pfizer by getting the CDC to lower the recommended age to 50.
That was a savvy play.
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But the real "wild card" is the partnership with Moderna. They are working on an individualized neoantigen therapy (mRNA-4157). We’re waiting on a Phase 3 readout for melanoma later this year. If that hits? The narrative around Merck changes from "how do they replace Keytruda" to "they just reinvented cancer treatment again."
Is Merck & Company Stock Actually a Buy?
It depends on your stomach for risk. Honestly.
If you want a safe, boring dividend payer, Merck fits the bill. But you have to accept that the 2028 patent cliff is the elephant in the room. If their pipeline doesn't deliver a few more home runs—like Enlicitide (their oral cholesterol pill that's trying to kill off Amgen's Repatha)—the stock could stay flat for a long time.
Key things to watch right now:
- The CEO Handover: Kai Beckmann is set to take over from Belén Garijo on May 1, 2026. New leadership usually means a new strategy, or at least a fresh coat of paint on the old one.
- Acquisition Spree: They have a strong balance sheet. Davis says they aren't "limited" by it. Expect more mid-sized biotech buyouts.
- The "Skinny Label" Battle: Watch how they navigate regulatory hurdles for their subcutaneous (injectable) version of Keytruda, which could extend their patent protection.
Actionable Steps for Investors
Don't just watch the ticker. If you're serious about Merck, you need to track the Phase 3 trial readouts for their cardiovascular and respiratory drugs. Those are the real replacement engines.
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Check the quarterly earnings reports for Animal Health sales too. It’s a huge, often ignored part of their business that provides a steady floor when human drug trials get messy.
Lastly, keep an eye on the debt-to-equity ratio. It’s currently around 0.77, which is healthy for big pharma, but if they overpay for a massive acquisition to save themselves from 2028, that number could get ugly fast.
Investing here isn't about today's price. It's about whether you believe Rob Davis when he says the cliff is just a hill. If he's right, $109 is a steal. If he's wrong, 2028 is going to be a very long year.
Next Steps for Your Portfolio:
- Verify the payout: Ensure your brokerage reflects the $0.85 dividend if you held shares by the December 15, 2025 record date.
- Review Pipeline data: Look for the specific Phase 3 results of MK-0616 later this year to see if Merck can realistically disrupt the cholesterol market.
- Compare Yields: Benchmark Merck's 3.1% yield against competitors like AbbVie or Johnson & Johnson to see where your capital is most efficient.