It’s easy to get lost in the noise when we talk about gun violence. You see a headline one day about a tragedy in a California suburb, then a week later, it’s a rural town in Alabama. It feels random. But if you actually sit down with the 2025 data—which, honestly, was a bit of a rollercoaster year—patterns start to emerge.
The big takeaway from last year? Things are changing, but not everywhere at once.
According to the Gun Violence Archive, 2025 actually saw a surprising drop in overall shooting deaths. We're talking about the lowest numbers since 2015. But that doesn't mean the problem is "solved." In fact, while national homicides fell, certain states saw mass shootings spike in ways that caught even the experts off guard.
The Reality of Mass Shootings by State
If you look at raw numbers, the "winners"—if you can even call them that—are always going to be the giants. Texas and California. It’s basic math. More people, more incidents. But that’s a lazy way to look at it.
To understand the real danger, you have to look at the rate per capita.
When you adjust for population, the map looks totally different. Last year, Alabama became a major focal point for researchers. The state recorded 28 mass shootings in 2025 alone. To put that in perspective, while California has nearly eight times the population, Alabama’s "Gun Danger Score"—a metric used by researchers at firms like Davidoff Law to track momentum—hit a staggering 100 out of 100.
It’s not just Alabama, though. The South is currently the epicenter.
Mississippi, Louisiana, and Georgia are all seeing this weird, deadly collision of weak regulation and rising lethality. In Georgia, mass shootings jumped by 58% in just two years. We're talking about going from 12 incidents in 2023 to 19 in 2025.
Why the Regional Gap is Widening
There is a massive divide happening. On one side, you have states like Maine, Connecticut, and Hawaii. In 2025, these states saw some of the largest decreases in gun violence. Hawaii and North Dakota are often the outliers that go entire years with zero mass shooting incidents.
On the other side, you have the "Permissive Eight."
Despite the national downward trend, eight states actually saw gun deaths increase in 2025:
- Alaska
- Arizona
- California
- Idaho
- Nebraska
- Rhode Island
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
Wyoming was the most shocking, with a 40% increase in gun deaths. Even though the raw number of mass shootings there is low because the population is tiny, the volatility is through the roof.
The "Permissive" Law Connection
Researchers at Columbia University and The BMJ have been tracking this for a while, and the 2025 data only hammered their point home. Basically, for every 10-unit increase in how "permissive" a state's gun laws are, the rate of mass shootings climbs by about 11.5%.
It's a pretty clear correlation.
States with "A" grades from safety advocates, like Massachusetts (which has one of the lowest gun violence rates at 3.9 per 100,000), contrast sharply with states like Mississippi, where the rate is 29.4.
But it’s not just about the number of guns. It’s about who can get them and how fast. In 2025, we saw a lot of "non-domestic" mass shootings—attacks in public spaces—fueled by easy access to high-capacity magazines in states with minimal vetting.
The Definition Problem
We should probably talk about what counts as a "mass shooting" because the numbers you see on the news depend entirely on who is counting.
- The FBI Definition: Historically focuses on "mass murder," meaning four or more people killed, not including the shooter.
- The Gun Violence Archive (GVA): Uses a broader definition—four or more people shot (injured or killed), not including the shooter.
- Mother Jones: Tracks "public" mass shootings, often excluding gang violence or domestic disputes that happen behind closed doors.
This is why you'll hear one person say there were 15 mass shootings and another say there were 600. In 2025, if you use the GVA definition, the U.S. saw a significant number of incidents, but the "mass murder" events (where many people actually died) were fortunately lower than the peak years of the pandemic.
Schools and Public Spaces in 2025
The psychological toll of mass shootings by state is often heaviest in the education sector. In 2025, there were roughly 233 shootings at K-12 schools.
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The South, again, reported the highest numbers here. Tennessee and Texas were high on the list for school-related incidents. However, Delaware—a small state—actually had the highest exposure rate per capita. This means a higher percentage of students in Delaware were physically present or nearby during a shooting than in almost any other state.
It’s a grim statistic.
Even "safe" states aren't immune. In December 2025, a high-profile shooting at Brown University in Rhode Island reminded everyone that campus violence doesn't care about a state's general safety ranking.
What This Means for You
If you're looking at this data to decide where to live or how to vote, the nuance matters more than the big headlines. Total counts tell you where the people are; rates tell you where the danger is.
Key insights to take away:
- The South is struggling: If you live in the "Black Belt" or the deep South, the trend is moving in the wrong direction despite national improvements.
- Law strength matters: There is a proven, statistical link between permit requirements and lower mass shooting frequencies.
- The "Mass" vs "Individual" distinction: Most gun deaths are still suicides or individual homicides, but mass shootings are the "spikes" that drive policy change.
Next Steps for Staying Informed
You don't need to be a data scientist to track this. If you want to keep an eye on how your specific state is performing as we move through 2026, here is what you can do:
- Check the GVA Data Hub: They update in near-real-time. Look for the "incident filter" to see what's happening in your specific zip code.
- Look at Everytown’s State Rankings: They provide a "Gun Law Strength" vs. "Gun Violence Rate" comparison that is updated every January.
- Monitor Local Legislation: Most of the movement in 2025 happened at the state house level, not in D.C. Keep an eye on "Red Flag" laws and permitless carry bills in your local legislature, as these are the primary drivers of the shifts we're seeing in state-by-state data.
The 2025 data shows a country in transition. We are finally seeing some numbers go down, but the "danger gap" between the safest and deadliest states is wider than it has been in decades.